四川芦山7.0级强震震前监测及预测
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摘要
2013年4月20日中国四川芦山发生7.0级地震,它是在2009—2011年中国西南地区出现长期大面积严重干旱这一强震中期典型异常背景下发生的。笔者执笔的年度中期预测发震地点与实际偏差400km。地震前一天晚上,中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会对"2013年4月27日前后10天是中国大陆及周边地区可能发生MS≥7.5级强震的危险日期",专门就国内近期存在发生强震的危险性展开了内部闭门讨论。震前3小时陈维升发现:全国气温自记曲线出现大面积断点。并且,震前4天北京工业大学地震研究所接收到次声波异常信号。2013年4月21日从郑州返京后,才得以查实:2013年4月18日23时—4月19日08时(北京时间)韩国气压图资料显示,在包括北纬30.3°、东经103°在内的100km范围内,出现了低气压异常区。笔者指出必要的反思是:科学是人类与自然的通信;要从发展演化的观点研究强震信息。
On April 20,2013,the Lushan earthquake(MS7.0)occurred under the background of a long-term large area severe drought in Southwestern China in 2009-2011,as a typical mid-term anomalous background.We delineated the annual medium-term forecast earthquake location,and the actual deviation is 400kilometers.In the night before the earthquake,The Special Committee for Predicting Natural Disaster,Chinese Geophysical Society held a closed-door discussion on the danger of recent domestic earthquake,especially on the subject of the danger of probable occurrence of strong earthquake equal or over MS7.5in Chinese mainland and the surrounding area in the interval of 10days around the date of April 27,2013.Three hours before the earthquake,Chen Weisheng found that the temperature recording curve appeared widespread breakpoints.In addition,The Institute of Earthquake Prediction,Beijing University of Technology received the signal of the abnormal infrasound four days before the earthquake.From Zhengzhou back to Beijing on April 21,2013,the author was able to verify that from 23:00on April 18to 08:00on April 19,2013(Beijing time),the pressure chart data in Korea show the abnormal low pressure area covering the range of 100km,including 30.3degrees north latitude and 103degrees east longitude.The author points out that the introspection should be made to deeply understand that science is the communication between the human and the nature and that we should study the earthquake information from the point of view of its evolution.
On April 20,2013,the Lushan earthquake(MS7.0)occurred under the background of a long-term large area severe drought in Southwestern China in 2009-2011,as a typical mid-term anomalous background.We delineated the annual medium-term forecast earthquake location,and the actual deviation is 400kilometers.In the night before the earthquake,The Special Committee for Predicting Natural Disaster,Chinese Geophysical Society held a closed-door discussion on the danger of recent domestic earthquake,especially on the subject of the danger of probable occurrence of strong earthquake equal or over MS7.5in Chinese mainland and the surrounding area in the interval of 10days around the date of April 27,2013.Three hours before the earthquake,Chen Weisheng found that the temperature recording curve appeared widespread breakpoints.In addition,The Institute of Earthquake Prediction,Beijing University of Technology received the signal of the abnormal infrasound four days before the earthquake.From Zhengzhou back to Beijing on April 21,2013,the author was able to verify that from 23:00on April 18to 08:00on April 19,2013(Beijing time),the pressure chart data in Korea show the abnormal low pressure area covering the range of 100km,including 30.3degrees north latitude and 103degrees east longitude.The author points out that the introspection should be made to deeply understand that science is the communication between the human and the nature and that we should study the earthquake information from the point of view of its evolution.
引文
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[6]陈维升,李均之.依据临震前兆预测2004-10-23在日本发生的MS7.0级地震[J].北京工业大学学报,2008,34(增刊):112-116.
[7]Xia Y Q,Liu J Y T,Cui X Y,et al.Abnormal infrasound signals before 92 M≧7.0worldwide earthquakes during 2002-2008[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2011,41:434-441.
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[9]韩国气象厅.韩国分析天气图[EB/OL].(2013-04-19)[2013-04-21].http:∥web.kma.go.kr/chn/weather/images/analysischart.jsp.
[10]四川省地震局.一九七六年松潘地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1979.
[2]耿庆国.汶川巨震的预测和思考[J].中国工程科学,2009,11(6):123-128.
[3]《天文与自然灾害》编委会.天文与自然灾害[M].北京:地震出版社,1991.
[4]王明太,耿庆国.中国天灾信息预测研究进展[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2004.
[5]中国气象局公共气象服务中心.中国天气网.现在天气[EB/OL].(2013-04-20)[2013-04-20].http:∥www.weather.com.cn/live/index.shtml.
[6]陈维升,李均之.依据临震前兆预测2004-10-23在日本发生的MS7.0级地震[J].北京工业大学学报,2008,34(增刊):112-116.
[7]Xia Y Q,Liu J Y T,Cui X Y,et al.Abnormal infrasound signals before 92 M≧7.0worldwide earthquakes during 2002-2008[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2011,41:434-441.
[8]耿庆国.破坏性地震短期临震预测的一个有效方法:关于短期临震气象要素五项指标异常[J].国际地震动态,2005(5):117-124.
[9]韩国气象厅.韩国分析天气图[EB/OL].(2013-04-19)[2013-04-21].http:∥web.kma.go.kr/chn/weather/images/analysischart.jsp.
[10]四川省地震局.一九七六年松潘地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1979.
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