安宁河、则木河构造区近期强震危险性的概率估计
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摘要
2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震发生后,作为历史强震多发地段——南北地震带中南段的安宁河、则木河构造区强地震危险性受到广泛关注。本文在分析安宁河、则木河构造区强震活动特点的基础上,利用地震危险性韦布尔概率估计方法,对该区未来10年内发生6.5级以上强震的累计概率和条件概率进行了计算,并结合前人针对汶川地震破裂对周边断层产生的库仑应力变化及潜在震源区判定等研究结果,对该区强地震危险性进行了综合判断。结果表明,汶川8.0级地震发生后,安宁河、则木河构造区5级以上中强地震似有逐步活跃的趋势;根据韦布尔概率模型计算得出的该区2021年前发生6.5级以上强地震的概率高达0.93,条件概率为0.32。因此,该构造区,尤其是区内的冕宁—西昌一带未来10年发生强地震的可能性相对较高。
After the 2008 Wenchuan magnitude 8.0 earthquake,Anninghe-Zemuhe fracture region,which has been a frequent strong earthquake zone in history,located in the middle south of the South-North Seismic Zone,has received extensive attention.Based on analyzing the unique characters of strong earthquake activity in Anninghe-Zemuhe tectonic zone,this paper calculated the cumulative probability and conditional probability of strong earthquake above magnitude 6.5 in the next decade in this area,by using the Weibull probability seismic risk estimation method.Moreover,by integrating previous studies on the Coulomb stress changes in peripheral faults and the potential focal zone caused by the Wenchuan earthquake rupture,we proposed a comprehensive judgment on the strong earthquake risk in Anninghe-Zemuhe tectonic zone.The results show that the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake would inevitably lead to middle and strong earthquakes above magnitude 5.0 earthquake activates gradually in Anninghe-Zemuhe tectonic zone.According to the Weibull probability model,the probability of occurring strong earthquake above magnitude 6.5 before 2021 in this area is as high as 0.93,and the conditional probability is 0.32.Therefore,in this tectonic zone,especially in the Mianning-Xichang region within this zone,the possibility of strong earthquake in the next decade is relatively high.
After the 2008 Wenchuan magnitude 8.0 earthquake,Anninghe-Zemuhe fracture region,which has been a frequent strong earthquake zone in history,located in the middle south of the South-North Seismic Zone,has received extensive attention.Based on analyzing the unique characters of strong earthquake activity in Anninghe-Zemuhe tectonic zone,this paper calculated the cumulative probability and conditional probability of strong earthquake above magnitude 6.5 in the next decade in this area,by using the Weibull probability seismic risk estimation method.Moreover,by integrating previous studies on the Coulomb stress changes in peripheral faults and the potential focal zone caused by the Wenchuan earthquake rupture,we proposed a comprehensive judgment on the strong earthquake risk in Anninghe-Zemuhe tectonic zone.The results show that the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake would inevitably lead to middle and strong earthquakes above magnitude 5.0 earthquake activates gradually in Anninghe-Zemuhe tectonic zone.According to the Weibull probability model,the probability of occurring strong earthquake above magnitude 6.5 before 2021 in this area is as high as 0.93,and the conditional probability is 0.32.Therefore,in this tectonic zone,especially in the Mianning-Xichang region within this zone,the possibility of strong earthquake in the next decade is relatively high.
引文
[1]程万正,张永久.论汶川8.0级地震前的地震活动及趋势估计问题[J].四川地震,2009,3:1-7.
[2]防灾科技学院.西昌市防震减灾规划及基础研究报告[R].2011.
[3]四川省地质矿产局.四川省区域地质志[M].北京:地质出版社,1991.
[4]何宏林,池田安隆.安宁河断裂晚第四纪运动特征及模式的讨论[J].地震学报,2007,29(4):537-548.
[5]李坪.鲜水河—小江断裂带[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.
[6]李坪,汪良谋.云南川西地区地震地质基本特征的探讨[M].北京:地震出版社,1977.
[7]杜平山,冯元保.则木河活动断裂的内部结构[J].四川地震,2000,1-2:24-48.
[8]杜平山.则木河断裂带的走滑位移及滑动速率[J].四川地震,2000,1-2:49-64.
[9]杜平山.则木河断裂带的演化历史和变形机制[J].四川地震,2000,1-2:65-69.
[10]杜平山.则木河活动断裂带的大震重复间隔[J].四川地震,2000,1-2:102-118.
[11]徐锡伟,程国良,于贵华,等.川滇菱形块体顺时针转动的构造学与古地磁学证据[J].地震地质,2003,50(2):61-70.
[12]徐锡伟,闻学泽,郑荣章,等.川滇地区活动块体最新构造变动样式及其动力来源[J].中国科学(D辑),2003(33)增刊:151-162.
[13]唐荣昌,黄祖智,文德华,等.试论安宁河断裂活动的分段性与地震活动[J].地震研究,1989,12(4):12-19.
[14]江在森,方颖,武艳强,等.汶川8.0级地震前区域地壳运动与变形动态[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):505-518.
[15]Mann N R,Schafer R E,Singpurwalla N D.Methods for Statistical Analysis of Reliability and LifeData[M].564pp.,Hohn Wiley,New York,1974.
[16]Kapur K C,Lamberson L R.Reliability in Engineering Design[M].586pp.,John Wiley,NewYork,1977.
[17]Rikitake T.Statistics of ultimate strain of the earth′s Crust and probability of earthquake recurrence[J].Tectonophysics,1975,26,1-21.
[18]Hagiwara Y.Probability of earthquake occurrence as obtained from a Weibulldistribution analysis ofcrustal strain[J].Tectonophysics,1974,23,313-318.
[19]Nishenko S P.Seismic Potential for Large and Great Interplate Earthquakes Along the Chilean andSouthern Peruvian Margins of South America:A Quantitative Reappraisal[J].J Geopyhs Res,1985,90:B5:3 589-3 615.
[20]王炜,杨德志.利用Weibull分布研究华北地区前兆震群的特征[J].中国地震,1987,3(4):13-21.
[21]李志雄,高旭,吕梅梅,等.中国大陆7级大震序列时间特征及中期预测方法[J].地震,1995,2:97-105.
[22]张郢珍,张立人,粟生平,等.地壳极限应变与危险区强震发生的概率估计[J].中国地震,1991,7(2):31-36.
[23]Harris R.Introduction to Special section:Stress triggers,Stress shadows,and implications for seis-mic hazard[J].J Geopyhs Res,1998,103:24 347-24 358.
[24]Gamberg J,Fezer K.A model of earthquake triggerring probabilities and application to dynamic de-formations constrained by ground motion observations[J].J Geopyhs Res,2008,113:B10317,doi:10.1029/2007JB005184.
[25]单斌,熊熊,郑勇,等.2008年5月12日MW7.9汶川地震导致的周边断层应力变化[J].中国科学(D辑),2009,39(5):537-545.
[26]解朝娣,朱元清,Xinglin LEI,等.MS8.0汶川地震产生的应力变化空间分布及其对地震活动性的影响[J].中国科学(D辑),2010,40(6):688-698.
[27]王连捷,周春景,孙东生,等.汶川5.12地震引起的库仑应力变化及其对周边地震活动的影响[J].地质力学学报,2008,14(3):193-200.
[28]万永革,沈正康,盛书中,等.2008年汶川大地震对周边断层的影响[J].地震学报,2009,31(2):128-139.
[29]Hardebeck J L,Nazareth J J,Hauksson E.The static stress change triggering model:Constraintsfrom two sothern California sftershock sequences[J].J Geophys Res,1998.103:24 427-24 437.
[30]华卫,刘杰,郑斯华,等.2003年云南大姚6.2级、6.1级地震序列特征分析及地震触发研究[J].中国地震,2006,22(1):10-23.
[31]易桂喜,闻学泽,范军,等.由地震活动参数分析安宁河—则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性[J].地震学报,2004,26(3):294-303.
[32]Wiemer S,Wyss M.Mapping the frequency-magnitude distribution in asperiyies:An improved tech-nique to calculate recurrence times?[J].J Geopyhs Res,1977,102(B7):15 115-15 128.
[33]Wyss M,Schorlemmer D,Wiemer S.Mapping asperities by minima of local recurrence time:SanJacinto-Elsinore failt zones[J].J Geopyhs Res,2000,105(B4):7 829-7 844.
[2]防灾科技学院.西昌市防震减灾规划及基础研究报告[R].2011.
[3]四川省地质矿产局.四川省区域地质志[M].北京:地质出版社,1991.
[4]何宏林,池田安隆.安宁河断裂晚第四纪运动特征及模式的讨论[J].地震学报,2007,29(4):537-548.
[5]李坪.鲜水河—小江断裂带[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.
[6]李坪,汪良谋.云南川西地区地震地质基本特征的探讨[M].北京:地震出版社,1977.
[7]杜平山,冯元保.则木河活动断裂的内部结构[J].四川地震,2000,1-2:24-48.
[8]杜平山.则木河断裂带的走滑位移及滑动速率[J].四川地震,2000,1-2:49-64.
[9]杜平山.则木河断裂带的演化历史和变形机制[J].四川地震,2000,1-2:65-69.
[10]杜平山.则木河活动断裂带的大震重复间隔[J].四川地震,2000,1-2:102-118.
[11]徐锡伟,程国良,于贵华,等.川滇菱形块体顺时针转动的构造学与古地磁学证据[J].地震地质,2003,50(2):61-70.
[12]徐锡伟,闻学泽,郑荣章,等.川滇地区活动块体最新构造变动样式及其动力来源[J].中国科学(D辑),2003(33)增刊:151-162.
[13]唐荣昌,黄祖智,文德华,等.试论安宁河断裂活动的分段性与地震活动[J].地震研究,1989,12(4):12-19.
[14]江在森,方颖,武艳强,等.汶川8.0级地震前区域地壳运动与变形动态[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(2):505-518.
[15]Mann N R,Schafer R E,Singpurwalla N D.Methods for Statistical Analysis of Reliability and LifeData[M].564pp.,Hohn Wiley,New York,1974.
[16]Kapur K C,Lamberson L R.Reliability in Engineering Design[M].586pp.,John Wiley,NewYork,1977.
[17]Rikitake T.Statistics of ultimate strain of the earth′s Crust and probability of earthquake recurrence[J].Tectonophysics,1975,26,1-21.
[18]Hagiwara Y.Probability of earthquake occurrence as obtained from a Weibulldistribution analysis ofcrustal strain[J].Tectonophysics,1974,23,313-318.
[19]Nishenko S P.Seismic Potential for Large and Great Interplate Earthquakes Along the Chilean andSouthern Peruvian Margins of South America:A Quantitative Reappraisal[J].J Geopyhs Res,1985,90:B5:3 589-3 615.
[20]王炜,杨德志.利用Weibull分布研究华北地区前兆震群的特征[J].中国地震,1987,3(4):13-21.
[21]李志雄,高旭,吕梅梅,等.中国大陆7级大震序列时间特征及中期预测方法[J].地震,1995,2:97-105.
[22]张郢珍,张立人,粟生平,等.地壳极限应变与危险区强震发生的概率估计[J].中国地震,1991,7(2):31-36.
[23]Harris R.Introduction to Special section:Stress triggers,Stress shadows,and implications for seis-mic hazard[J].J Geopyhs Res,1998,103:24 347-24 358.
[24]Gamberg J,Fezer K.A model of earthquake triggerring probabilities and application to dynamic de-formations constrained by ground motion observations[J].J Geopyhs Res,2008,113:B10317,doi:10.1029/2007JB005184.
[25]单斌,熊熊,郑勇,等.2008年5月12日MW7.9汶川地震导致的周边断层应力变化[J].中国科学(D辑),2009,39(5):537-545.
[26]解朝娣,朱元清,Xinglin LEI,等.MS8.0汶川地震产生的应力变化空间分布及其对地震活动性的影响[J].中国科学(D辑),2010,40(6):688-698.
[27]王连捷,周春景,孙东生,等.汶川5.12地震引起的库仑应力变化及其对周边地震活动的影响[J].地质力学学报,2008,14(3):193-200.
[28]万永革,沈正康,盛书中,等.2008年汶川大地震对周边断层的影响[J].地震学报,2009,31(2):128-139.
[29]Hardebeck J L,Nazareth J J,Hauksson E.The static stress change triggering model:Constraintsfrom two sothern California sftershock sequences[J].J Geophys Res,1998.103:24 427-24 437.
[30]华卫,刘杰,郑斯华,等.2003年云南大姚6.2级、6.1级地震序列特征分析及地震触发研究[J].中国地震,2006,22(1):10-23.
[31]易桂喜,闻学泽,范军,等.由地震活动参数分析安宁河—则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性[J].地震学报,2004,26(3):294-303.
[32]Wiemer S,Wyss M.Mapping the frequency-magnitude distribution in asperiyies:An improved tech-nique to calculate recurrence times?[J].J Geopyhs Res,1977,102(B7):15 115-15 128.
[33]Wyss M,Schorlemmer D,Wiemer S.Mapping asperities by minima of local recurrence time:SanJacinto-Elsinore failt zones[J].J Geopyhs Res,2000,105(B4):7 829-7 844.
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