我国大陆6级地震平静后首次强地震的短期预测实验
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摘要
自2005年4月8日西藏仲巴6.7级地震后,我国大陆出现了历史上少有的6级地震平静。截止到2007年4月初,6级地震平静达730多天,这一现象引起了众多专家的高度关注,将在何时、何处打破这种平静一时成为关注的焦点。依据我国大陆形变异常分布特征,作者分别于2007年4月18日和4月27日试验性地提出了《东部地区短期地震危险性分析意见》及西北地区5月份存在发生6级地震可能性的预测意见。两次预测实验结果尽管都不是很准确,但对于揭示地壳形变观测本质及探索地震预测新方法等都是有意义的。
The longest interval between two strong earthquakes in a series since 1900 on the Chinese mainland is 649 days. From the Zongba M_S6.7 earthquake, occurred on April 8, 2005, up to the beginning of April, 2007, the waiting time was closed to 730 days, the seismic quietness was paid a great attention by specialists. When and where the strong earthquake will occur that become a focuses to be investigated. Based on the observed deformation data, the authors proposed the reports "On the Short-term Possibility of Strong Earthquake in the Eastern Region of China" and "The Possibility of Strong Earthquake in May in the northwestern China Region", respectively on April 18 and April 27,2007. Although there is a great difference in positions between predicted and really occurred earthquakes, but the attempt is useful to realize the meaning of ground deformation observations and the exploring new approaches for earthquake prediction.
The longest interval between two strong earthquakes in a series since 1900 on the Chinese mainland is 649 days. From the Zongba M_S6.7 earthquake, occurred on April 8, 2005, up to the beginning of April, 2007, the waiting time was closed to 730 days, the seismic quietness was paid a great attention by specialists. When and where the strong earthquake will occur that become a focuses to be investigated. Based on the observed deformation data, the authors proposed the reports "On the Short-term Possibility of Strong Earthquake in the Eastern Region of China" and "The Possibility of Strong Earthquake in May in the northwestern China Region", respectively on April 18 and April 27,2007. Although there is a great difference in positions between predicted and really occurred earthquakes, but the attempt is useful to realize the meaning of ground deformation observations and the exploring new approaches for earthquake prediction.
引文
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Roger Bilham,2005,Co-seismic strain andthe transitionto surface aftersliprecorded by creep-meters near the2004parkfield epicenter.Seism.Res.Lett.,76(1),49～57.
Scholz,C.H.,1977,Aphysical interpretation of the Haicheng earthquake prediction,Nature,267,121～124.
冯德益等,1984,长周期形变波及其所反应的短期和临震地震前兆,地震学报,6(1),页码。
冯德益等,1993,构造波及其在地震预报中的应用,地壳形变与地震,13(1),页码。
蒋靖祥、尹光华、许凤柱,2003,昆仑山口西8.1级地震前库尔勒测区相对应力场变化,地震,23(3),89～96。
笠原庆一著,赵仲和等译,1984,地震力学,190～197,北京:地震出版社。
刘端法、刘克人、郑金涵等,2004,1997～2003白家疃地震台记录的重力变化,地球物理学进展,19(4),883～886。
牛安福,1993,长周期形变与地震,地震学报,15(增刊),560～564。
牛安福、吴翼麟,陈德福等,1995,大同地震及其异常地倾斜场,地震学报,17(1),499～504。
牛安福,2007,地壳形变观测与地震前兆一般性问题的讨论,国际地震动态,6,43～48。
田韬、卢永、杨军,2004,昆仑山口西MS8.1地震前远场应变异常研究,内陆地震,18(2),101～105。
王绳祖、张四昌、田勤俭等,2001,大陆动力学——网状塑性流动与多级构造变形,北京:地震出版社。
许绍燮,2005,17世纪初泉州—琼山大震组群发生的相关性与构造特征,大地测量与地球动力学,25(1),1～5。
杨又陵、温和平,2002,昆仑山口西8.1级地震前新疆定点形变异常初析,内陆地震,4,317～324。
Niu A.F.,Zhang J.,Jiang Z.S.et al.,2003,Study onthe sudden changes in groundtilt and earthquakes,Acta Seismologica Sinica,16(4),468～472.
Roger Bilham,2005,Co-seismic strain andthe transitionto surface aftersliprecorded by creep-meters near the2004parkfield epicenter.Seism.Res.Lett.,76(1),49～57.
Scholz,C.H.,1977,Aphysical interpretation of the Haicheng earthquake prediction,Nature,267,121～124.
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