山东半岛及附近海域地震活动特征及近期地震危险性趋势分析
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摘要
本文通过对山东半岛及附近海域地质构造分析、地震学参数时空扫描计算、地震背景形势分析等认为:山东半岛及附近海域有发生5级左右地震的异常背景。预测区域为:胶东及北部海域3-4级地震条带及边缘有发生4.5级左右地震的可能;渤海海域自1969年7.4级地震后,其地震能量释放呈下降趋势,近20年活动水平为4级左右,渤海海域近期发生大于5级以上地震的可能性较小。北黄海海域近几年地震活动水平明显高于渤海海域。北黄海未来一、二年或稍长时间有发生5级左右地震的可能,应注意山东半岛及北部海域地震活动趋势的发展。
By analyzing the geologic structure,scanning time,space of parameters,and the situation of earthquake background of Shandong Peninsula and the waters nearby Shandong Peninsula,it may be concluded Shandong Peninsula and the nearby waters have the abnormal background under which would earthquake take place around 5 magnitude.It has been forecasted that Jiaodong and the sea area of the northern(the earthquake belt of 3-4 magnitude) about 4.5 magnitude earthquake will be likely to take place.The seismic energy of Bohai Sea area release downward trend since 1969 the 7.4 magnitude earthquake happened.seismic activity is around 4 magnitude level in the nearly 20 years.The possibility that Bohai Sea more than 5 magnitude earthquake take place recently is smaller.In recent years the level of seismic activity of North Yellow Sea is more than Bohai Sea obviously.About 5 magnitude earthquake May take place possible in the next one or two years or slightly longer period of time in North Yellow Sea,the seismic activity trend of Shandong Peninsula and the northern sea area should be noted.
By analyzing the geologic structure,scanning time,space of parameters,and the situation of earthquake background of Shandong Peninsula and the waters nearby Shandong Peninsula,it may be concluded Shandong Peninsula and the nearby waters have the abnormal background under which would earthquake take place around 5 magnitude.It has been forecasted that Jiaodong and the sea area of the northern(the earthquake belt of 3-4 magnitude) about 4.5 magnitude earthquake will be likely to take place.The seismic energy of Bohai Sea area release downward trend since 1969 the 7.4 magnitude earthquake happened.seismic activity is around 4 magnitude level in the nearly 20 years.The possibility that Bohai Sea more than 5 magnitude earthquake take place recently is smaller.In recent years the level of seismic activity of North Yellow Sea is more than Bohai Sea obviously.About 5 magnitude earthquake May take place possible in the next one or two years or slightly longer period of time in North Yellow Sea,the seismic activity trend of Shandong Peninsula and the northern sea area should be noted.
引文
[1]《测震学分析预报方法》.1997.国家地震局预测预防司,地震出版社.
[2]邓聚龙.1985.《灰色控制系统》[M].武汉:华中工学院出版社.
[3]陆远忠等.2002.《基于GIS的地震分析预报系统》.成都地图出版社.
[4]姜秀娥,陈非比.1983.区域震群与唐山大震[J].地震学报,5(2):146-156.
[2]邓聚龙.1985.《灰色控制系统》[M].武汉:华中工学院出版社.
[3]陆远忠等.2002.《基于GIS的地震分析预报系统》.成都地图出版社.
[4]姜秀娥,陈非比.1983.区域震群与唐山大震[J].地震学报,5(2):146-156.
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