汶川8.0级地震后中国大陆强震活动状态研究
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摘要
本文从不同空间、时间尺度对2008年四川汶川8.0级地震的影响意义进行了初步讨论,并以此分析了其后我国大陆的强震活动状态。研究结果表明,1800年以来中国大陆西部及邻区的大三角地区8级地震活动呈现为100年左右丛集性时间过程,具有地震平静、地震丛集、地震丛集发生前的过渡和丛集发生后的调整等时间特征;2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8.1级地震和2008年5月12日四川汶川8.0级地震的发生表明,目前该地区可能处于8级地震丛集发生前的过渡时段。20世纪以来,中国大陆7级强震的时间活动过程明显受大三角地区8级地震时间进程的影响,在8级地震活动的1900—1955年时段内,7级地震幕式活动划分不显著,而在8级地震平静的1956—2000年时段内,7级地震幕式活动划分清晰;以2008年汶川8.0级地震为标志,受大三角地区8级左右巨大地震活跃控制,中国大陆可能将进入一组新的幕式活动不清晰的、类似于1900—1955年的强震活跃时段。
From different space and time scales,this article preliminarily discussed the impact of the May 12,2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake and analyzed the state of strong earthquake activity in mainland China after this earthquake.The result suggests that seismicity of M8 earthquakes in the triangular region,bounded by the Pamir-Baikal tectonic belt,Alpine tectonic belt and North-South seismic belt of mainland China west of longitude 107°E,has a temporal clustering feature.That is,the M8 earthquake occurrence process in this region could be divided into four stages as calm,active or transition from calm to active,and adjustment after active.The November 14,2001 Kunlunshan 8.1 earthquake and May 12,2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake may mean that the M8 earthquakes activity at the present in the triangular region is just transiting from calm to active.Besides,the activity of M7 earthquakes in mainland China are obviously controlled by the activity of M8 earthquakes in the triangular region.There is no distinctly calm or active stage of M7 earthquakes in mainland China when M8 earthquakes in the triangular region occurred frequently from 1900 to 1955.On the contrary,the periodicity of M7 events in mainland China is clear when the M8 events in triangular was calm from 1956 to 2000,and during this process,the calm,transitional,active stages of M7 earthquakes seemed to be quite orderly.Based on the seismic activity analysis of these two regions,the M7 earthquake activity in mainland China may also be entering a new process,the temporal stage of which can hardly be divided,just similar to the strong earthquake activity from 1900 to 1955.
From different space and time scales,this article preliminarily discussed the impact of the May 12,2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake and analyzed the state of strong earthquake activity in mainland China after this earthquake.The result suggests that seismicity of M8 earthquakes in the triangular region,bounded by the Pamir-Baikal tectonic belt,Alpine tectonic belt and North-South seismic belt of mainland China west of longitude 107°E,has a temporal clustering feature.That is,the M8 earthquake occurrence process in this region could be divided into four stages as calm,active or transition from calm to active,and adjustment after active.The November 14,2001 Kunlunshan 8.1 earthquake and May 12,2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake may mean that the M8 earthquakes activity at the present in the triangular region is just transiting from calm to active.Besides,the activity of M7 earthquakes in mainland China are obviously controlled by the activity of M8 earthquakes in the triangular region.There is no distinctly calm or active stage of M7 earthquakes in mainland China when M8 earthquakes in the triangular region occurred frequently from 1900 to 1955.On the contrary,the periodicity of M7 events in mainland China is clear when the M8 events in triangular was calm from 1956 to 2000,and during this process,the calm,transitional,active stages of M7 earthquakes seemed to be quite orderly.Based on the seismic activity analysis of these two regions,the M7 earthquake activity in mainland China may also be entering a new process,the temporal stage of which can hardly be divided,just similar to the strong earthquake activity from 1900 to 1955.
引文
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[12]傅征祥,刘杰,王晓青,等.中国大陆西部及邻区板内8级大地震活动过程和趋势预测初步研究[J].地学前缘,2003,10(特刊):112-117.
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[14]方开泰,潘恩沛.聚类分析[M].北京:地质出版社,1982.
[15]洪时中.最优分割在地震分期中的应用[J].西北地震学报,1984,6(1):49-57.
[16]梅世蓉.中国的地震活动性[J].地球物理学报,1960,9(1):1-19.
[17]李钦祖.华北地壳应力场的基本特征[J].地球物理学报,1980,23(4):376-388.
[18]张国民.我国大陆强震活动的韵律特征[J].地震地质,1987,9(2):27-37.
[19]张国民,马宏生.我国陆区7级地震形势分析[A].中国地震局地震预测研究所.中国大陆强震趋势预测研究(2007年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2006.59-64.
[20]洪时中.分维与地震科学[J].科学,1990,42(2):105-108.
[21]吴忠良.关于b值应用于地震趋势预测的讨论[J].地震学报,2001,23(5):548-551.
[22]张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3):602-610.
[2]马宗晋,傅征祥,张郢珍,等.1966—1976年中国九大地震[M].地震出版社,1982.
[3]Gutenberg B,Richter C F.Seismicity of the earth and associated phenomena[M].Princeton Univer-sity Press,Princeton,New Jersey,1954.
[4]张文佑.断块构造导论[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984.
[5]马杏垣.中国岩石圈动力学图集[M].北京:地图出版社,1989.
[6]丁国瑜.活动亚板块、构造块体相对运动[A].丁国瑜.中国岩石圈动力学概论[C].北京:地震出版社,1991.142-153.
[7]张国民,张培震.“大陆强震机理与预测”中期学术进展[J].中国基础科学,2000,(10):4-10.
[8]张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学,D辑,2003,33(增刊):12-20.
[9]马宗晋,江良谋,李存悌.中国及邻区特大地震地质与地球物理环境和危险区划分[A].马宗晋.中国大陆2005年前强震危险区预测研究[C].北京:地震出版社,1997.172-182.
[10]Kahattri K N.Great earthquakes seismicity gap and potential for earthquake disaster along the Hi-malayan plate boundary[J].Tectonophysics,1987,138:79-92.
[11]Bilham R,Gaur V K,Molnar P.Himalayan seismic hazard[J].Science,2001,293:1 442-1 444.
[12]傅征祥,刘杰,王晓青,等.中国大陆西部及邻区板内8级大地震活动过程和趋势预测初步研究[J].地学前缘,2003,10(特刊):112-117.
[13]Kagan Y Y,Jackson D D.Long-term earthquake clustering[J].Geophy J Int,1991,104:117-133.
[14]方开泰,潘恩沛.聚类分析[M].北京:地质出版社,1982.
[15]洪时中.最优分割在地震分期中的应用[J].西北地震学报,1984,6(1):49-57.
[16]梅世蓉.中国的地震活动性[J].地球物理学报,1960,9(1):1-19.
[17]李钦祖.华北地壳应力场的基本特征[J].地球物理学报,1980,23(4):376-388.
[18]张国民.我国大陆强震活动的韵律特征[J].地震地质,1987,9(2):27-37.
[19]张国民,马宏生.我国陆区7级地震形势分析[A].中国地震局地震预测研究所.中国大陆强震趋势预测研究(2007年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2006.59-64.
[20]洪时中.分维与地震科学[J].科学,1990,42(2):105-108.
[21]吴忠良.关于b值应用于地震趋势预测的讨论[J].地震学报,2001,23(5):548-551.
[22]张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3):602-610.
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