华北地区构造应力场、断层滑动速率与强震的关系
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摘要
在华北地区选择了１８个震例（Ｍ≥６．０），以断层滑动速率、应力主轴方向、断层走向为因子对震级作了二元线性回归分析。同时又作了震级与滑动速率之间的一元分析，并将这两种分析作了对比。结果表明：①二元回归分析优于一元分析；②断层滑动速率、应力主轴方向与断层走向之间的夹角α是决定震级大小的两个主要因素；③Ｍ≥３．５级的地震与断层活动与否无关；④运用二元分析公式可以进行震级预测，并可以对历史地震作适当的修正。
Since 70 B. C., 77 earthquakes with M≥6. 0 have been recorded in North China. Thirty-three of them occurred on active fault zones or were closely related to active faults. According to some principles, eighteen of them are selected as samples and the univariate and bivariate linear regression analysis is made by least-square approximation for them. The results of the two regression analyses are compared and are shown as follows: 1. The significance level of F test on the bivariate regression analysis is as high as that on the univariate analysis. 2. The correlation coefficient of the bivariate analysis is larger than that of the univariate analysis. 3. The residual standard deviation of the bivariate analysis,σ, is less than that of the univariate analysis. We may draw the conclusion as follows: 1. The earthquake magnitude is not only related to the fault slip-rate, but also to the stress direction. 2. The earthquakes with M≤3. 5 is not correlative with whether the fault is active or not. 3. In the bent place of a fault, it is easy that a large earthquake may occur. 4. A slip-rate and a stress direction are two important factors to determine earthquake magnitude 5. The effect of a multivariate regression analysis is superior to that of a univariate analysis.
Since 70 B. C., 77 earthquakes with M≥6. 0 have been recorded in North China. Thirty-three of them occurred on active fault zones or were closely related to active faults. According to some principles, eighteen of them are selected as samples and the univariate and bivariate linear regression analysis is made by least-square approximation for them. The results of the two regression analyses are compared and are shown as follows: 1. The significance level of F test on the bivariate regression analysis is as high as that on the univariate analysis. 2. The correlation coefficient of the bivariate analysis is larger than that of the univariate analysis. 3. The residual standard deviation of the bivariate analysis,σ, is less than that of the univariate analysis. We may draw the conclusion as follows: 1. The earthquake magnitude is not only related to the fault slip-rate, but also to the stress direction. 2. The earthquakes with M≤3. 5 is not correlative with whether the fault is active or not. 3. In the bent place of a fault, it is easy that a large earthquake may occur. 4. A slip-rate and a stress direction are two important factors to determine earthquake magnitude 5. The effect of a multivariate regression analysis is superior to that of a univariate analysis.
引文
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