基于地震对应概率谱的多参数综合异常研究
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摘要
在单参数地震对应概率谱和累计滑动平均概率方法的基础上,研究了多参数滑动极值平均概率方法,用以定量识别地震前兆综合异常特征。首先,该方法基于地震对应概率谱分析,将原始数据时间序列转换成概率时间序列;其次,采用多点累计滑动平均方法得到不同参数滑动平均概率P-ij;再次,求解不同参数的多点滑动极值概率Mij;最后,求解多参数滑动极值平均概率Pc。文中以新疆天山地区不同地震学参数的时间序列为原始数据进行算例分析,结果表明,当考察时段为18个月时,利用多参数滑动极值平均概率可以较好地识别地震前兆综合异常,其异常对应比例和地震对应比例分别为13/13和22/27,异常信度较高,但存在一定程度的漏报现象。
Based on single-parameter earthquake corresponding probability spectrum and sliding mean probability research,the article presents multi-parameter sliding maximum-value mean probability method,and quantitatively identifies precursor comprehensive anomaly character.The method first converts original time sequence into probability sequence on the basis of earthquake corresponding probability spectrum analysis.Then by using multi-point cumulative sliding mean method,a sliding mean probability of different parameters [AKP-]_ ij is obtained.After that the multi-point sliding extremum-value probability M_ ij of different parameter is calculated.Finally the multi-parameter sliding extremum-value mean probability P_c is obtained as the result.The example of the original time sequence of different seismic parameters of the Northern Tianshan region in Xinjiang shows that when the studied time-interval is 18 months,multi-parameter sliding extremum-value mean probability can identify precursor comprehensive anomaly better,and the anomaly and earthquake corresponding rate is respectively 13/13 and 22/27.The anomaly confidence is good,but fail alarm is obvious.
Based on single-parameter earthquake corresponding probability spectrum and sliding mean probability research,the article presents multi-parameter sliding maximum-value mean probability method,and quantitatively identifies precursor comprehensive anomaly character.The method first converts original time sequence into probability sequence on the basis of earthquake corresponding probability spectrum analysis.Then by using multi-point cumulative sliding mean method,a sliding mean probability of different parameters [AKP-]_ ij is obtained.After that the multi-point sliding extremum-value probability M_ ij of different parameter is calculated.Finally the multi-parameter sliding extremum-value mean probability P_c is obtained as the result.The example of the original time sequence of different seismic parameters of the Northern Tianshan region in Xinjiang shows that when the studied time-interval is 18 months,multi-parameter sliding extremum-value mean probability can identify precursor comprehensive anomaly better,and the anomaly and earthquake corresponding rate is respectively 13/13 and 22/27.The anomaly confidence is good,but fail alarm is obvious.
引文
陈章立、李志雄,2008,对地震预报的科学思考(二)——前兆观测研究及加强地震综合预报研究的方向和重点,地震,28(2):1～16。
杜学彬、阮爱国、范世宏等,2001,强震近震中区地电阻率变化速率的各向异性,地震学报,23(3):289～297。
罗灼礼、王伟君,2008,地震前兆的复杂性及地震预报、预警、预防综合决策问题的讨论,地震,28(1):19～32。
罗兰格、韩渭宾、刘耀伟,2002,强地震中短期预报方法及其效能研究,北京:地震出版社。
王海涛、王琼,2008,基于地震对应概率谱分析的前兆异常识别研究,地震研究,31(4):330～334。
王海涛、朱令人、杨马陵等,1991,地震前兆观测数据的信息熵分析,地震,11(5):13～18。
郑熙铭、冯德益,1993,前兆值异常的时空演化与地震活动,地壳形变与地震,13(2):80～87。
杜学彬、阮爱国、范世宏等,2001,强震近震中区地电阻率变化速率的各向异性,地震学报,23(3):289～297。
罗灼礼、王伟君,2008,地震前兆的复杂性及地震预报、预警、预防综合决策问题的讨论,地震,28(1):19～32。
罗兰格、韩渭宾、刘耀伟,2002,强地震中短期预报方法及其效能研究,北京:地震出版社。
王海涛、王琼,2008,基于地震对应概率谱分析的前兆异常识别研究,地震研究,31(4):330～334。
王海涛、朱令人、杨马陵等,1991,地震前兆观测数据的信息熵分析,地震,11(5):13～18。
郑熙铭、冯德益,1993,前兆值异常的时空演化与地震活动,地壳形变与地震,13(2):80～87。
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