真实地震情况下人群疏散特征与模拟演练的差异:2008年汶川地震监控录像的分析
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摘要
真实地震情况下人群疏散特征与模拟演练的差异是应急疏散的统计物理研究中的一个关键问题。本文通过互联网收集和分析了2008年5月12日汶川MS8.0地震中一些记录到地震时人群疏散的监控录像。这些监控录像不仅为真实地震情况下人员疏散行为的研究提供了目前仍十分稀缺的实例,而且可用于约束紧急情况下人群疏散的统计物理模型。对条件相似的真实地震情况下和模拟演练情况下的疏散人数-疏散时间进行研究,发现出口处的疏散人数和疏散时间呈显著的非线性关系,这与通过模拟演练所得出的线性关系具有明显的差异。
In constraining statistical physics models of emergency evacuation,the difference between real-life escape panic and simulated experiment is one of the important issues. In this paper the internet-accessible video recordings of the May 12,2008,Wenchuan MS8. 0 earthquake are collected and analyzed. Escape panic shown in these recordings provide unprecedented cases of real-life escape panic behavior for the modeling of earthquake emergency. The analysis of two examples in high schools indicates that the relation between the arrival time and the order of arrival person is nonlinear,being different from simulated exercises with similar conditions in which this relation shows linearity.
In constraining statistical physics models of emergency evacuation,the difference between real-life escape panic and simulated experiment is one of the important issues. In this paper the internet-accessible video recordings of the May 12,2008,Wenchuan MS8. 0 earthquake are collected and analyzed. Escape panic shown in these recordings provide unprecedented cases of real-life escape panic behavior for the modeling of earthquake emergency. The analysis of two examples in high schools indicates that the relation between the arrival time and the order of arrival person is nonlinear,being different from simulated exercises with similar conditions in which this relation shows linearity.
引文
陈涛、应振根、申世飞等,2006,相对速度影响下社会力模型的疏散模拟与分析,自然科学进展,16(12):1606～1612。
黄猛、张震、丰继林等,2009,震时中学应急疏散模型建立的探究,四川地震,132(3):45～47。
刘轩、宋卫国、马剑等,2008,基于数字图像处理的人员运动参数提取方法研究,火灾科学,17(4):201～208。
宋卫国、于彦飞、陈涛,2003,出口条件对人员疏散的影响及其分析,火灾科学,12(2):100～104。
宋卫国、于彦飞、范维澄等,2005,一种考虑摩擦与排斥的人员疏散元胞自动机模型,中国科学(E辑:工程科学材料科学),35(7):725～736。
宋卫国、马剑、袁非牛等,2006,典型学生人群对疏散指示反应特性的初步研究,火灾科学,15(3):159～167。
宋卫国、张俊、胥旋等,2008,一种考虑人数分布特性的人员疏散格子气模型,自然科学进展,18(5):552～558。
翁文国、袁宏永、范维澄等,2006,一种基于移动机器人行为的人员疏散的元胞自动机模型,科学通报,51(23):2818～2822。
夏旻、吴忠良、蒋长胜等,2008,用监控录像资料估计强地面运动参数——汶川地震的两个试验,防灾减灾工程学报,28(4):536～539。
杨立中、方伟峰、黄锐等,2002,基于元胞自动机的火灾中人员逃生的模型,科学通报,47(12):896～901。
杨立中、李健、赵道亮等,2004,基于个体行为的人员疏散微观离散模型,中国科学(E辑:工程科学材料科学),34(11):1264～1270。
岳昊、邵春福、姚智胜,2009,基于元胞自动机的行人疏散流仿真研究,物理学报,58(7):4523～4530。
张培红、陈宝智、卢兆明,2005,人员应急疏散行动开始前的决策行为,东北大学学报(自然科学版),26(2):179～182。
郑小平、钟庭宽、张建文,2008,公共建筑内群体疏散方法的探讨,中国安全科学学报,18(1),28～33。
周金旺、邝华、刘慕仁等,2009,成对行为对行人疏散动力学的影响研究,物理学报,58(5):3001～3007。
Altshuler E.,Ramos O.,Núnez Y.,Fernández J.,Batista-Leyva A.J.and Noda C.,2005,Symmetrybreaking in escapingants,Am.Nat.,166:643～649.
Antonini G.,Bierlaire M.and Weber M.,2006,Discrete choice models of pedestrian walking behavior,Transp.Res.Pt.B-Methodol.,40:667～687.
Burstedde C.,Klauck K.,Schadschneider A.and Zittartz J.,2001,Simulation of pedestrian dynamics using a two-dimensionalcellular automaton,Physica A,295:507～525.
Chow W.K.and Ng C.M.Y.,2008,Waiting time in emergency evacuation of crowded public transport terminals,Saf.Sci.,46:844.
Fang Z.M.,Song W.G.,Zhang J.and Wu H.,2010,Experiment and modeling of exit-selecting behaviors during a buildingevacuation,Physica A,389:815～824.
Gwynne S.,Galea E.R.,Lawrence P.J.and Filippidis L.,2001,Modelling occupant interaction with fire conditions using thebuilding EXODUS model,Fire Saf.J.,36:327～357.
Helbing D.and Molnar P.,1995,Social force model for pedestrian dynamics,Phys.Rev.E,51:4282～4286.
Helbing D.,Farkas I.and Vicsek T.,2000a,Simulating dynamical features of escape panic,Nature,407:487～490.
Helbing D.,Farkas I.and Vicsek T.,2000b,Freezing by heating in a driven mesoscopic system,Phys.Rev.Lett.,84:1240～1243.
Helbing D.,Isobe M.,Nagatani T.and Takimoto K.,2003,Lattice gas simulation of experimentally studied evacuationdynamics,Phys.Rev.E.,67,doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.67.067101.
Helbing D.,Buzna L.,Johansson A.and Werner T.,2005,Self-organized pedestrian crowd dynamics:experiments,simulations,and design solutions,Transp.Sci.,39:1～24.
Helbing D.,Johansson A.and Al-Abideen H.Z.,2007,Dynamics of crowd disasters:An empirical study,Phys.Rev.E,75,doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.75.046109.
Hori M.,Sutoh A.and Saitoh Y.,1999,Strong motion measurement using security video cameras,J.Struct.Mechs.Earth.Eng.,1:1～11.
Hoogendoorn S.P.and Daamen W.,2005,Pedestrian Behavior at Bottlenecks,Transp.Sci.,39:147～159.
Huang H.J.and Guo R.Y.,2008,Static floor field and exit choice for pedestrian evacuation in rooms with internal obstacles andmultiple exits,Phys.Rev.E,78,doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.78.021131.
Isobe M.,Helbing D.and Nagatani T.,2004,Experiment,theory,and simulation of the evacuation of a room without visibility,Phys.Rev.E,69,doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.69.066132.
Itoh T.and Nagatani T.,2002,Optimal admission time for shifting the audience,Physica A,313:695～708.
Johansson A.,Helbing D.,Al-Abideen H.Z.and Al-Bosta S.,2008,From crowd dynamics to crowd safety:A video-basedanalysis,Adv.Complex Syst.,11:497～527.
Kady R.A.and Davis J.,2009,The effect of occupant characteristics on crawling speed in evacuation,Fire Saf.J.,44:451～457.
Kirchner A.and Schadschneider A.,2002,Simulation of evacuation processes using a bionics-inspired cellular automaton modelfor pedestrian dynamics,Physica A,312:260～276.
Kirchner A.,Klüpfel H.,Nishinari K.,Schadschneider A.and Schreckenberg M.,2003,Simulation of competitive egressbehavior:comparison with aircraft evacuation data,Physica A,324:689～697.
Kobes M.,Helsloot I.,Vries B.,Post J.G.,OberijéN.and Groenewegen K.,2010,Way finding during fire evacuation;ananalysis of unannounced fire drills in a hotel at night,Build.Environ.,45:537～548.
Lam W.H.K.,Lee J.Y.S.,Chan K.S.and Goh P.K.,2003,A generalised function for modeling bi-directional flow effects onindoor walkways in Hong Kong,Transp.Res.Pt.A-Policy Pract.,37:789～810.
Lmmel G.,Grether D.and Nagel K.,2010,The representation and implementation of time-dependent inundation in large-scalemicroscopic evacuation simulations,Transp.Res.Pt.C-Emerg.Technol.,18:84～98.
Liu S.B.,Yang L.Z.,Fang T.Y.and Li J.,2009,Evacuation from a classroom considering the occupant density around exits,Physica A,388:1921～1928.
Maniccam S.,2003,Traffic jamming on hexagonal lattice,Physica A,321:653～664.
Muramatsu M.and Nagatani T.,2000a,Jamming transition in two-dimensional pedestrian traffic,Physica A,275:281～291.
Muramatsu M.and Nagatani T.,2000b,Jamming transition of pedestrian traffic at a crossing with open boundaries,Physica A,286:377～390.
Nagai R.,Nagatani T.,Isobe M.and Adachi T.,2004,Effect of exit configuration on evacuation of a room without visibility,Physica A,343:712～724.
Nagai R.,Fukamachi M.and Nagatani T.,2005,Experiment and simulation for counterflow of people going on all fours,PhysicaA,358:516～528.
Nagai R.,Fukamachi M.and Nagatani T.,2006,Evacuation of crawlers and walkers from corridor through an exit,Physica A,367:449～460.
Olsson P.A.and Regan M.A.,2001,A comparison between actual and predicted evacuation times,Saf.Sci.,38:139～145.
Pelechano N.and Malkawi A.,2008,Evacuation simulation models:Challenges in modeling high rise building evacuation withcellular automata approaches,Autom.Constr.,17:377～385.
Rassia S.T.and Siettos C.I.,2009,Escape Dynamics in office buildings:using molecular dynamics to quantify the impact ofcertain aspects of uuman behavior during emergency evacuation,Environ.Model.Assess.,14,doi:1007/s10666-009-9209-3.
Saloma C.,Perez G.J.,Tapang G.,Lim M.and Palmes-Saloma C.,2003,Self-organized queueing and scale-free behavior inreal escape panic,Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.,100:11947～11952.
Seyfried A.,Passon O.,Steffen B.,Boltes M.,Rupprecht T.and Klingsch W.,2009,New Insights into Pedestrian FlowThrough Bottlenecks,Transp.Sci.,43:395～406.
Shiwakoti N.,Sarvi M.,Rose G.and Burd M.,2009,Enhancing the safety of pedestrians during emergency egress:Can welearn from biological entities-Transp.Res.Record,2137:31～37.
Tajima Y.,Takimoto K.and Nagatani T.,2001,Scaling of pedestrian channel flow with a bottleneck,Physica A,294:257～268.
Tajima Y.and Nagatani T.,2002,Clogging transition of pedestrian flow in T-shaped channel,Physica A,303:239～250.
Weckman H.,Lehtimaki S.and Mannikko S.,1999,Evacuation of a theatre:Exercise vs calculations,Fire Mater.,23:357～361.
Wu Z.L.,Xia M.,Yang X.L.and Jiang C.S.,2008,Estimating intensity and strong ground motion parameters usingmonitoring video-–Cases in the May12,2008,Wenchuan earthquake,The7th General Assembly of Asian SeismologicalCommission,Tsukuba,Japan,Abstract A41-06.
Xu X.and Song W.G.,2009,Staircase evacuation modeling and its comparison with an egress drill,Build.Environ.,44:1039～1046.
Yang X.L.,Wu Z.L.and Xia M.,2008,Intensity retrieved from public monitoring video——Cases from the May12,2008,Wenchuan earthquake,Earthquake Research in China,22:229～236.
Yang X.L.,Wu Z.L.,Jiang C.S.and Xia M.,2010,Estimating Intensities and/or strong motion parameters using civilianmonitoring videos:the May12,2008,Wenchuan earthquake,Pure Appl.Geophys.,doi:10.1007/s00024-010-0168-z.
Yeo S.K.and He Y.P.,2009,Commuter characteristics in mass rapid transit stations in Singapore,Fire Saf.J.,44:183～191.
Yuan W.F.,Tan K.H.,2007,An evacuation model using cellular automata,Physica A,384:549～566.
Yuan Y.F.,2008,Impact of intensity and loss assessment following the great Wenchuan Earthquake,Earthq.Eng.&Eng.Vib.,7:247～254.
Yuan W.F.,Tan K.H.,2009,Cellular automata model for simulation of effect of guiders and visibility range,Current AppliedPhysics,9:1014～1023.
Zhang J.,Song W.G.and Xu X.,2008,Experiment and multi-grid modeling of evacuation from classroom,Physica A,387:5901～5909.
Zhao D.L.,Yang L.Z.and Li J.,2006,Exit dynamics of occupant evacuation in an emergency,Physica A,363:501～511.
Zhao D.L.,Li J.,Zhu Y.and Zou L.,2008,The application of a two-dimensional cellular automata random model to theperformance-based design of building exit,Build.Environ.,43:518～522.
Zheng X.P.,Zhong T.K.and Liu M.T.,2009,Modeling crowd evacuation of a building based on seven methodologicalapproaches,Build.Environ.,44:437～445.
黄猛、张震、丰继林等,2009,震时中学应急疏散模型建立的探究,四川地震,132(3):45～47。
刘轩、宋卫国、马剑等,2008,基于数字图像处理的人员运动参数提取方法研究,火灾科学,17(4):201～208。
宋卫国、于彦飞、陈涛,2003,出口条件对人员疏散的影响及其分析,火灾科学,12(2):100～104。
宋卫国、于彦飞、范维澄等,2005,一种考虑摩擦与排斥的人员疏散元胞自动机模型,中国科学(E辑:工程科学材料科学),35(7):725～736。
宋卫国、马剑、袁非牛等,2006,典型学生人群对疏散指示反应特性的初步研究,火灾科学,15(3):159～167。
宋卫国、张俊、胥旋等,2008,一种考虑人数分布特性的人员疏散格子气模型,自然科学进展,18(5):552～558。
翁文国、袁宏永、范维澄等,2006,一种基于移动机器人行为的人员疏散的元胞自动机模型,科学通报,51(23):2818～2822。
夏旻、吴忠良、蒋长胜等,2008,用监控录像资料估计强地面运动参数——汶川地震的两个试验,防灾减灾工程学报,28(4):536～539。
杨立中、方伟峰、黄锐等,2002,基于元胞自动机的火灾中人员逃生的模型,科学通报,47(12):896～901。
杨立中、李健、赵道亮等,2004,基于个体行为的人员疏散微观离散模型,中国科学(E辑:工程科学材料科学),34(11):1264～1270。
岳昊、邵春福、姚智胜,2009,基于元胞自动机的行人疏散流仿真研究,物理学报,58(7):4523～4530。
张培红、陈宝智、卢兆明,2005,人员应急疏散行动开始前的决策行为,东北大学学报(自然科学版),26(2):179～182。
郑小平、钟庭宽、张建文,2008,公共建筑内群体疏散方法的探讨,中国安全科学学报,18(1),28～33。
周金旺、邝华、刘慕仁等,2009,成对行为对行人疏散动力学的影响研究,物理学报,58(5):3001～3007。
Altshuler E.,Ramos O.,Núnez Y.,Fernández J.,Batista-Leyva A.J.and Noda C.,2005,Symmetrybreaking in escapingants,Am.Nat.,166:643～649.
Antonini G.,Bierlaire M.and Weber M.,2006,Discrete choice models of pedestrian walking behavior,Transp.Res.Pt.B-Methodol.,40:667～687.
Burstedde C.,Klauck K.,Schadschneider A.and Zittartz J.,2001,Simulation of pedestrian dynamics using a two-dimensionalcellular automaton,Physica A,295:507～525.
Chow W.K.and Ng C.M.Y.,2008,Waiting time in emergency evacuation of crowded public transport terminals,Saf.Sci.,46:844.
Fang Z.M.,Song W.G.,Zhang J.and Wu H.,2010,Experiment and modeling of exit-selecting behaviors during a buildingevacuation,Physica A,389:815～824.
Gwynne S.,Galea E.R.,Lawrence P.J.and Filippidis L.,2001,Modelling occupant interaction with fire conditions using thebuilding EXODUS model,Fire Saf.J.,36:327～357.
Helbing D.and Molnar P.,1995,Social force model for pedestrian dynamics,Phys.Rev.E,51:4282～4286.
Helbing D.,Farkas I.and Vicsek T.,2000a,Simulating dynamical features of escape panic,Nature,407:487～490.
Helbing D.,Farkas I.and Vicsek T.,2000b,Freezing by heating in a driven mesoscopic system,Phys.Rev.Lett.,84:1240～1243.
Helbing D.,Isobe M.,Nagatani T.and Takimoto K.,2003,Lattice gas simulation of experimentally studied evacuationdynamics,Phys.Rev.E.,67,doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.67.067101.
Helbing D.,Buzna L.,Johansson A.and Werner T.,2005,Self-organized pedestrian crowd dynamics:experiments,simulations,and design solutions,Transp.Sci.,39:1～24.
Helbing D.,Johansson A.and Al-Abideen H.Z.,2007,Dynamics of crowd disasters:An empirical study,Phys.Rev.E,75,doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.75.046109.
Hori M.,Sutoh A.and Saitoh Y.,1999,Strong motion measurement using security video cameras,J.Struct.Mechs.Earth.Eng.,1:1～11.
Hoogendoorn S.P.and Daamen W.,2005,Pedestrian Behavior at Bottlenecks,Transp.Sci.,39:147～159.
Huang H.J.and Guo R.Y.,2008,Static floor field and exit choice for pedestrian evacuation in rooms with internal obstacles andmultiple exits,Phys.Rev.E,78,doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.78.021131.
Isobe M.,Helbing D.and Nagatani T.,2004,Experiment,theory,and simulation of the evacuation of a room without visibility,Phys.Rev.E,69,doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.69.066132.
Itoh T.and Nagatani T.,2002,Optimal admission time for shifting the audience,Physica A,313:695～708.
Johansson A.,Helbing D.,Al-Abideen H.Z.and Al-Bosta S.,2008,From crowd dynamics to crowd safety:A video-basedanalysis,Adv.Complex Syst.,11:497～527.
Kady R.A.and Davis J.,2009,The effect of occupant characteristics on crawling speed in evacuation,Fire Saf.J.,44:451～457.
Kirchner A.and Schadschneider A.,2002,Simulation of evacuation processes using a bionics-inspired cellular automaton modelfor pedestrian dynamics,Physica A,312:260～276.
Kirchner A.,Klüpfel H.,Nishinari K.,Schadschneider A.and Schreckenberg M.,2003,Simulation of competitive egressbehavior:comparison with aircraft evacuation data,Physica A,324:689～697.
Kobes M.,Helsloot I.,Vries B.,Post J.G.,OberijéN.and Groenewegen K.,2010,Way finding during fire evacuation;ananalysis of unannounced fire drills in a hotel at night,Build.Environ.,45:537～548.
Lam W.H.K.,Lee J.Y.S.,Chan K.S.and Goh P.K.,2003,A generalised function for modeling bi-directional flow effects onindoor walkways in Hong Kong,Transp.Res.Pt.A-Policy Pract.,37:789～810.
Lmmel G.,Grether D.and Nagel K.,2010,The representation and implementation of time-dependent inundation in large-scalemicroscopic evacuation simulations,Transp.Res.Pt.C-Emerg.Technol.,18:84～98.
Liu S.B.,Yang L.Z.,Fang T.Y.and Li J.,2009,Evacuation from a classroom considering the occupant density around exits,Physica A,388:1921～1928.
Maniccam S.,2003,Traffic jamming on hexagonal lattice,Physica A,321:653～664.
Muramatsu M.and Nagatani T.,2000a,Jamming transition in two-dimensional pedestrian traffic,Physica A,275:281～291.
Muramatsu M.and Nagatani T.,2000b,Jamming transition of pedestrian traffic at a crossing with open boundaries,Physica A,286:377～390.
Nagai R.,Nagatani T.,Isobe M.and Adachi T.,2004,Effect of exit configuration on evacuation of a room without visibility,Physica A,343:712～724.
Nagai R.,Fukamachi M.and Nagatani T.,2005,Experiment and simulation for counterflow of people going on all fours,PhysicaA,358:516～528.
Nagai R.,Fukamachi M.and Nagatani T.,2006,Evacuation of crawlers and walkers from corridor through an exit,Physica A,367:449～460.
Olsson P.A.and Regan M.A.,2001,A comparison between actual and predicted evacuation times,Saf.Sci.,38:139～145.
Pelechano N.and Malkawi A.,2008,Evacuation simulation models:Challenges in modeling high rise building evacuation withcellular automata approaches,Autom.Constr.,17:377～385.
Rassia S.T.and Siettos C.I.,2009,Escape Dynamics in office buildings:using molecular dynamics to quantify the impact ofcertain aspects of uuman behavior during emergency evacuation,Environ.Model.Assess.,14,doi:1007/s10666-009-9209-3.
Saloma C.,Perez G.J.,Tapang G.,Lim M.and Palmes-Saloma C.,2003,Self-organized queueing and scale-free behavior inreal escape panic,Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.,100:11947～11952.
Seyfried A.,Passon O.,Steffen B.,Boltes M.,Rupprecht T.and Klingsch W.,2009,New Insights into Pedestrian FlowThrough Bottlenecks,Transp.Sci.,43:395～406.
Shiwakoti N.,Sarvi M.,Rose G.and Burd M.,2009,Enhancing the safety of pedestrians during emergency egress:Can welearn from biological entities-Transp.Res.Record,2137:31～37.
Tajima Y.,Takimoto K.and Nagatani T.,2001,Scaling of pedestrian channel flow with a bottleneck,Physica A,294:257～268.
Tajima Y.and Nagatani T.,2002,Clogging transition of pedestrian flow in T-shaped channel,Physica A,303:239～250.
Weckman H.,Lehtimaki S.and Mannikko S.,1999,Evacuation of a theatre:Exercise vs calculations,Fire Mater.,23:357～361.
Wu Z.L.,Xia M.,Yang X.L.and Jiang C.S.,2008,Estimating intensity and strong ground motion parameters usingmonitoring video-–Cases in the May12,2008,Wenchuan earthquake,The7th General Assembly of Asian SeismologicalCommission,Tsukuba,Japan,Abstract A41-06.
Xu X.and Song W.G.,2009,Staircase evacuation modeling and its comparison with an egress drill,Build.Environ.,44:1039～1046.
Yang X.L.,Wu Z.L.and Xia M.,2008,Intensity retrieved from public monitoring video——Cases from the May12,2008,Wenchuan earthquake,Earthquake Research in China,22:229～236.
Yang X.L.,Wu Z.L.,Jiang C.S.and Xia M.,2010,Estimating Intensities and/or strong motion parameters using civilianmonitoring videos:the May12,2008,Wenchuan earthquake,Pure Appl.Geophys.,doi:10.1007/s00024-010-0168-z.
Yeo S.K.and He Y.P.,2009,Commuter characteristics in mass rapid transit stations in Singapore,Fire Saf.J.,44:183～191.
Yuan W.F.,Tan K.H.,2007,An evacuation model using cellular automata,Physica A,384:549～566.
Yuan Y.F.,2008,Impact of intensity and loss assessment following the great Wenchuan Earthquake,Earthq.Eng.&Eng.Vib.,7:247～254.
Yuan W.F.,Tan K.H.,2009,Cellular automata model for simulation of effect of guiders and visibility range,Current AppliedPhysics,9:1014～1023.
Zhang J.,Song W.G.and Xu X.,2008,Experiment and multi-grid modeling of evacuation from classroom,Physica A,387:5901～5909.
Zhao D.L.,Yang L.Z.and Li J.,2006,Exit dynamics of occupant evacuation in an emergency,Physica A,363:501～511.
Zhao D.L.,Li J.,Zhu Y.and Zou L.,2008,The application of a two-dimensional cellular automata random model to theperformance-based design of building exit,Build.Environ.,43:518～522.
Zheng X.P.,Zhong T.K.and Liu M.T.,2009,Modeling crowd evacuation of a building based on seven methodologicalapproaches,Build.Environ.,44:437～445.
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