水库地震台网监测能力计算方法——基于G-R关系式
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摘要
水库地震台网监测能力是否达到设计目标,对已经建成的水库地震台网是必须回答的问题,根据研究,可以震级-频度关系式为主,配合频度-震级图来回答。近年来运用此方法,对紫坪铺、瀑布沟、瓦屋山水库的水库台网监测能力作出了明确回答。在特定水库区域针对具体的水库做地震活动本底研究时,应用该方法使得区域台网目录更好地应用于水库地震活动本底研究。在水库地震台网中突发小震群时,应用该方法使得预测的后续可能发生的最大震级与后续实际发生的最大震级一致性较好。该方法普适性强,可广泛应用于水库地震和天然地震监测预测。在表述地震台网监测能力时,该方法取得了从设计意图到实测数据回答台网监测能力的目的。
It is required to answer for reservoir seismic network whether the network's monitoring capability achieves the design goal.According to research results,the use of magnitude-frequency relationship,with the aid of frequency-magnitude diagrams,can answer the above question.In recent years,the method was applied to calculating the monitoring capability of Zipingpu,Pubugou and Wawushan reservoir networks.When studying the background seismicity of specific reservoir,the method can make a better use of regional network catalogues to the study of the background of reservoir seismic activity.When small earthquake cluster occurs in reservoir network area,the possible greatest magnitude of the follow-up earthquake predicted by this method is well consistent with the follow-up practical one.The method can be extensively applied to monitoring and prediction of reservoir-induced and natural earthquake.In characterizing the monitoring capability of a seismic network,the method solves the concern of determining the network's monitoring capability on the aspects of both design goal and measured data.
It is required to answer for reservoir seismic network whether the network's monitoring capability achieves the design goal.According to research results,the use of magnitude-frequency relationship,with the aid of frequency-magnitude diagrams,can answer the above question.In recent years,the method was applied to calculating the monitoring capability of Zipingpu,Pubugou and Wawushan reservoir networks.When studying the background seismicity of specific reservoir,the method can make a better use of regional network catalogues to the study of the background of reservoir seismic activity.When small earthquake cluster occurs in reservoir network area,the possible greatest magnitude of the follow-up earthquake predicted by this method is well consistent with the follow-up practical one.The method can be extensively applied to monitoring and prediction of reservoir-induced and natural earthquake.In characterizing the monitoring capability of a seismic network,the method solves the concern of determining the network's monitoring capability on the aspects of both design goal and measured data.
引文
①四川省地震局水库地震研究所,2005,紫坪铺水利枢纽工程水库诱发地震监测预测研究报告(下闸蓄水阶段)。
②四川省地震局水库地震研究所,2005,紫坪铺水利枢纽工程水库天然地震活动本底研究报告。
③四川赛思特科技有限责任公司,2009,瀑布沟水电站水库天然地震活动本底研究报告。
④四川赛思特科技有限责任公司,2009,瀑布沟水电站水库诱发地震监测预测研究报告(下闸蓄水阶段)。
①四川赛思特科技有限责任公司,2008,瓦屋山水电站水库天然地震活动本底研究报告。
①四川省地震局水库地震研究所,2005,紫坪铺水利枢纽工程水库天然地震活动本底研究报告。
②四川赛思特科技有限责任公司,2009,瀑布沟水电站水库天然地震活动本底研究报告。
陈培善,白彤霞,李保昆.2003.b值和地震复发周期[J].地球物理学报,46(4):510—519.CHEN Pei-shan,BAI Tong-xia,LI Bao-kun.2003.b-value and earthquake occurrence period[J].Chinese J Geophys,46(4):510—519(in Chinese).
陈时军,王丽凤,马丽,等.2002.关于震级频度关系的一些讨论[J].地震学报,24(2):176—185.CHEN Shi-jun,WANG Li-feng,MALi,et al.2002.Argument on the magnitude-frequency relation[J].Acta Seismolog-ica Sinica,24(2):176—185(in Chinese).
陈兴凯,蔡静观.1999.丽江7级地震前高b值演化过程和孕震模式[J].地震研究,22(4):330—342.CHEN Xing-kai,CAI Jing-guan.1999.Evolution process of highbvalue and seismogenic mode before the LijiangM7earthquake[J].Journal of Seismological Research,22(4):330—342(in Chinese).
何少林.2003.甘肃省地震台网监测能力分析[J].地震地磁观测与研究,24(6):103—108.HE Shao-lin.2003.The analysis of monitoring ability of seismic network of Gansu Province[J].Seismological and Geo-magnetic Observation and Research,24(6):103—108(in Chinese).
胡先明.2007.紫坪铺水库蓄水前天然地震活动[J].四川地震,(2):16—21.HU Xian-ming.2007.Seismicity background around Zipingpu Dam before impounding[J].Earthquake Research in Si-chuan,(2):16—21(in Chinese).
胡先明,谢蓉华,韩进,等.2008.水库诱发地震中水体下方的地震波速比[J].地震研究,31(3):215—221.HU Xian-ming,XIE Rong-hua,HAN Jin,et al.2008.Seismic wave velocity ratio under water body of reservoir duringreservoir-induced earthquakes[J].Journal of Seismological Research,31(3):215—221(in Chinese).
胡先明,张永久,谢蓉华,等.2009.紫坪铺水库区小地震震源机制研究[J].地震地质,31(4):676—685.HU Xian-ming,ZHANG Yong-jiu,XIE Rong-hua,et al.2009.Research on focal mechanism of small earthquake in Zip-ingpu reservoir area[J].Seismology and Geology,31(4):676—685(in Chinese).
黄玮琼,时振梁,曹学锋.1989.b值统计中的影响因素及危险性分析中b值的选取[J].地震学报,11(4):351—361.HUANG Wei-qiong,SHI Zhen-liang,CAO Xue-feng.1989.Factors influencing the estimation ofbvalue and the selec-tion ofbvalue in hazard analysis[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,11(4):351—361(in Chinese).
李全林,于渌,郝柏林,等.1980.地震频度-震级关系的时空扫描[M].北京:地震出版社.1—102.LI Quan-lin,YU lu,HAO Bai-lin,et al.1980.Space-time scan of earthquake frequency-magnitude relationship[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.1—102(in Chinese).
路鹏,李志雄,陶本藻,等.2006.震级频度与古登堡-里克特关系式偏离的前兆意义[J].地震,26(4):1—8.LU Peng,LI Zhi-xiong,TAO Ben-zao,et al.2006.Precursory significance of the deviation of the magnitude frequencyfrom the G-R relation[J].Earthquake,26(4):1—8(in Chinese).
马宏生,刘杰,张国民,等.2005.基于G-R关系的应变积累释放模型研究中国大陆强震的分区活动[J].地震学报,27(4):355—366.MA Hong-sheng,LIU Jie,ZHANG Guo-min,et al.2005.Seismicity research in the subregions of Chinese mainland u-sing strain accumulationg and releasing model based on G-R relation[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,27(4):355—366(in Chinese).
沈建文,余湛,邱瑛.2007.地震安评中地震活动性的统计区域与b值[J].国际地震动态,(3):1—6.SHEN Jian-wen,YUZhan,QIUYing.2007.Statistical zone in seismic safety evaluation andbvalue[J].Recent Devel-opments in World Seismology,(3):1—6(in Chinese).
王俊,阮祥,郑江蓉,等.2009.汶川地震序列b值的分析研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,30(2):15—21.WANG Jun,RUAN Xiang,ZHENG Jiang-rong,et al.2009.Study on the variation ofbvalue in Wenchuan earthquakeseries[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,30(2):15—21(in Chinese).
王翠芳.2004.数字遥测地震台网测震能力图的制作[J].地震地磁观测与研究,25(4):32—37.WANG Cui-fang.2004.Making of the map of monitoring capability of digital telemetry seismic network[J].Seismologi-cal and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,25(4):32—37(in Chinese).
闻学泽,胡先明.1984.从地震活动参数分析石棉-巧家断裂带的现今地震活动性[J].地震研究,7(2):163—170.WEN Xue-ze,HUXian-ming.1984.Analyzing current activities of the Shimian-Qiaojia Fault zone by eaqrthquake activ-ity parameters[J].Journal of Seismological Research,7(2):163—170(in Chinese).
闻学泽,徐锡伟,龙锋,等.2007.中国大陆东部中-弱活动断层潜在地震最大震级评估的震级-频度关系模型[J].地震地质,29(2):236—253.WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei,LONG Feng,et al.2007.Frequency-magnitude relationship models for assessment of maxi-mum magnitudes of potential earthquakes on moderately and weakly active faults in eastern China mainland[J].Seismology and Geology,29(2):236—253(in Chinese).
吴忠良.2001.关于b值应用于地震趋势预测的讨论[J].地震学报,23(5):548—551.WU Zhong-liang.2001.A discussion on the application ofb-value to the prediction of seismic tendency[J].Acta Seis-mologica Sinica,23(5):548—551(in Chinese).
姚宏,陈鑫,黄树生,等.2008.龙滩水电工程数字遥测地震台网监测能力检验[J].地震地磁观测与研究,29(4):62—66.YAO Hong,CHEN Xin,HUANG Shu-sheng,et al.2008.The inspection of monitoring capability of the digital telemetryseismograph network in Longtan Hydropower Project[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observayion and Re-search,29(4):62—66(in Chinese).
张有林,戚浩,王-坤,等.2005.安徽省地震台网监测能力和监控范围估算[J].地震地磁观测与研究,26(6):56—59.ZHANG You-lin,QI Hao,WANG Yi-kun,et al.2005.The estimate of Anhui Province seismic network monitoring abilityand controling range[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,26(6):56—59(in Chi-nese).
中华人民共和国水利部.1999.中华人民共和国行业标准.水利水电工程地质观测规程(SL245—1999)[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社.1—27.The Ministry of Water Resources of the People s Republic of China.1999.The industrial standard of the People s Re-public of China.Specification for geological observation of water resources and hydropower engineering(SL245—1999)[S].China Water Power Press,Beijing.1—27(in Chinese).
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1944.Frequency of earthquakes in California[J].Bull Seism Soc Ame,34:185—188.
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1954.Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena[M].Princeton Univ Press,Prince-ton.1—38.
②四川省地震局水库地震研究所,2005,紫坪铺水利枢纽工程水库天然地震活动本底研究报告。
③四川赛思特科技有限责任公司,2009,瀑布沟水电站水库天然地震活动本底研究报告。
④四川赛思特科技有限责任公司,2009,瀑布沟水电站水库诱发地震监测预测研究报告(下闸蓄水阶段)。
①四川赛思特科技有限责任公司,2008,瓦屋山水电站水库天然地震活动本底研究报告。
①四川省地震局水库地震研究所,2005,紫坪铺水利枢纽工程水库天然地震活动本底研究报告。
②四川赛思特科技有限责任公司,2009,瀑布沟水电站水库天然地震活动本底研究报告。
陈培善,白彤霞,李保昆.2003.b值和地震复发周期[J].地球物理学报,46(4):510—519.CHEN Pei-shan,BAI Tong-xia,LI Bao-kun.2003.b-value and earthquake occurrence period[J].Chinese J Geophys,46(4):510—519(in Chinese).
陈时军,王丽凤,马丽,等.2002.关于震级频度关系的一些讨论[J].地震学报,24(2):176—185.CHEN Shi-jun,WANG Li-feng,MALi,et al.2002.Argument on the magnitude-frequency relation[J].Acta Seismolog-ica Sinica,24(2):176—185(in Chinese).
陈兴凯,蔡静观.1999.丽江7级地震前高b值演化过程和孕震模式[J].地震研究,22(4):330—342.CHEN Xing-kai,CAI Jing-guan.1999.Evolution process of highbvalue and seismogenic mode before the LijiangM7earthquake[J].Journal of Seismological Research,22(4):330—342(in Chinese).
何少林.2003.甘肃省地震台网监测能力分析[J].地震地磁观测与研究,24(6):103—108.HE Shao-lin.2003.The analysis of monitoring ability of seismic network of Gansu Province[J].Seismological and Geo-magnetic Observation and Research,24(6):103—108(in Chinese).
胡先明.2007.紫坪铺水库蓄水前天然地震活动[J].四川地震,(2):16—21.HU Xian-ming.2007.Seismicity background around Zipingpu Dam before impounding[J].Earthquake Research in Si-chuan,(2):16—21(in Chinese).
胡先明,谢蓉华,韩进,等.2008.水库诱发地震中水体下方的地震波速比[J].地震研究,31(3):215—221.HU Xian-ming,XIE Rong-hua,HAN Jin,et al.2008.Seismic wave velocity ratio under water body of reservoir duringreservoir-induced earthquakes[J].Journal of Seismological Research,31(3):215—221(in Chinese).
胡先明,张永久,谢蓉华,等.2009.紫坪铺水库区小地震震源机制研究[J].地震地质,31(4):676—685.HU Xian-ming,ZHANG Yong-jiu,XIE Rong-hua,et al.2009.Research on focal mechanism of small earthquake in Zip-ingpu reservoir area[J].Seismology and Geology,31(4):676—685(in Chinese).
黄玮琼,时振梁,曹学锋.1989.b值统计中的影响因素及危险性分析中b值的选取[J].地震学报,11(4):351—361.HUANG Wei-qiong,SHI Zhen-liang,CAO Xue-feng.1989.Factors influencing the estimation ofbvalue and the selec-tion ofbvalue in hazard analysis[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,11(4):351—361(in Chinese).
李全林,于渌,郝柏林,等.1980.地震频度-震级关系的时空扫描[M].北京:地震出版社.1—102.LI Quan-lin,YU lu,HAO Bai-lin,et al.1980.Space-time scan of earthquake frequency-magnitude relationship[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.1—102(in Chinese).
路鹏,李志雄,陶本藻,等.2006.震级频度与古登堡-里克特关系式偏离的前兆意义[J].地震,26(4):1—8.LU Peng,LI Zhi-xiong,TAO Ben-zao,et al.2006.Precursory significance of the deviation of the magnitude frequencyfrom the G-R relation[J].Earthquake,26(4):1—8(in Chinese).
马宏生,刘杰,张国民,等.2005.基于G-R关系的应变积累释放模型研究中国大陆强震的分区活动[J].地震学报,27(4):355—366.MA Hong-sheng,LIU Jie,ZHANG Guo-min,et al.2005.Seismicity research in the subregions of Chinese mainland u-sing strain accumulationg and releasing model based on G-R relation[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,27(4):355—366(in Chinese).
沈建文,余湛,邱瑛.2007.地震安评中地震活动性的统计区域与b值[J].国际地震动态,(3):1—6.SHEN Jian-wen,YUZhan,QIUYing.2007.Statistical zone in seismic safety evaluation andbvalue[J].Recent Devel-opments in World Seismology,(3):1—6(in Chinese).
王俊,阮祥,郑江蓉,等.2009.汶川地震序列b值的分析研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,30(2):15—21.WANG Jun,RUAN Xiang,ZHENG Jiang-rong,et al.2009.Study on the variation ofbvalue in Wenchuan earthquakeseries[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,30(2):15—21(in Chinese).
王翠芳.2004.数字遥测地震台网测震能力图的制作[J].地震地磁观测与研究,25(4):32—37.WANG Cui-fang.2004.Making of the map of monitoring capability of digital telemetry seismic network[J].Seismologi-cal and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,25(4):32—37(in Chinese).
闻学泽,胡先明.1984.从地震活动参数分析石棉-巧家断裂带的现今地震活动性[J].地震研究,7(2):163—170.WEN Xue-ze,HUXian-ming.1984.Analyzing current activities of the Shimian-Qiaojia Fault zone by eaqrthquake activ-ity parameters[J].Journal of Seismological Research,7(2):163—170(in Chinese).
闻学泽,徐锡伟,龙锋,等.2007.中国大陆东部中-弱活动断层潜在地震最大震级评估的震级-频度关系模型[J].地震地质,29(2):236—253.WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei,LONG Feng,et al.2007.Frequency-magnitude relationship models for assessment of maxi-mum magnitudes of potential earthquakes on moderately and weakly active faults in eastern China mainland[J].Seismology and Geology,29(2):236—253(in Chinese).
吴忠良.2001.关于b值应用于地震趋势预测的讨论[J].地震学报,23(5):548—551.WU Zhong-liang.2001.A discussion on the application ofb-value to the prediction of seismic tendency[J].Acta Seis-mologica Sinica,23(5):548—551(in Chinese).
姚宏,陈鑫,黄树生,等.2008.龙滩水电工程数字遥测地震台网监测能力检验[J].地震地磁观测与研究,29(4):62—66.YAO Hong,CHEN Xin,HUANG Shu-sheng,et al.2008.The inspection of monitoring capability of the digital telemetryseismograph network in Longtan Hydropower Project[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observayion and Re-search,29(4):62—66(in Chinese).
张有林,戚浩,王-坤,等.2005.安徽省地震台网监测能力和监控范围估算[J].地震地磁观测与研究,26(6):56—59.ZHANG You-lin,QI Hao,WANG Yi-kun,et al.2005.The estimate of Anhui Province seismic network monitoring abilityand controling range[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,26(6):56—59(in Chi-nese).
中华人民共和国水利部.1999.中华人民共和国行业标准.水利水电工程地质观测规程(SL245—1999)[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社.1—27.The Ministry of Water Resources of the People s Republic of China.1999.The industrial standard of the People s Re-public of China.Specification for geological observation of water resources and hydropower engineering(SL245—1999)[S].China Water Power Press,Beijing.1—27(in Chinese).
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1944.Frequency of earthquakes in California[J].Bull Seism Soc Ame,34:185—188.
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1954.Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena[M].Princeton Univ Press,Prince-ton.1—38.
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