1997年11月8日藏北玛尼7.5级大震的预报问题
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摘要
对 1997年 11月 8日的藏北玛尼大地震 ,我们曾在 1991年进行过预报 ,1997年又曾重申过这个预报。本文用我们过去提出的预报理论和方法 ,对玛尼大震的预报问题再进行更广泛的讨论。文中 ,用立交模式讨论了玛尼大震的孕育机制 ,用 35°线上的 6 0a周期讨论了该震的发生年份 ,用构造交会及“静中动判据”讨论了该地震发生的地点 ,用磁暴倍九法和引潮力增长速度讨论了该震的发震日期 ,用科里奥利力效应讨论了该震余震震级偏小的原因 ,另外 ,还讨论了有关大震 -雪灾链的问题。
The great 1997 Mani earthquake has been predicted by the authors in 1991. In June,1997,the prediction was restated by us. It is the main aim of this paper to extentively discuss the prediction problems of the great Mani earthquake according to the predictive theory and method which were previously proposed by us. Using the stereographic cross model we discussed the forming mechanism of the great Mani earthquake. The occurrence year of the great Mani earthquake has been discussed by the period of 60 years of big earthquake activity in the 35° N latitude line. On the basis of tectonic intersection and "the judgement of activity in quiescence", the occurrence place of the great Mani earthquake has been studied. From the rhythm of multiplied nine days after a magnetic storm and the phase of tidal force, we discussed the occurrence day of the great Mani earthquake. By the Corioli force effect we studied the reason why the maximum aftershock magnitude of the great Mani earthquake is too small.Besides, the chain of big earthquake and storm snow has been discussed also.
The great 1997 Mani earthquake has been predicted by the authors in 1991. In June,1997,the prediction was restated by us. It is the main aim of this paper to extentively discuss the prediction problems of the great Mani earthquake according to the predictive theory and method which were previously proposed by us. Using the stereographic cross model we discussed the forming mechanism of the great Mani earthquake. The occurrence year of the great Mani earthquake has been discussed by the period of 60 years of big earthquake activity in the 35° N latitude line. On the basis of tectonic intersection and "the judgement of activity in quiescence", the occurrence place of the great Mani earthquake has been studied. From the rhythm of multiplied nine days after a magnetic storm and the phase of tidal force, we discussed the occurrence day of the great Mani earthquake. By the Corioli force effect we studied the reason why the maximum aftershock magnitude of the great Mani earthquake is too small.Besides, the chain of big earthquake and storm snow has been discussed also.
引文
①徐锡伟,等.玛尼地震地表破裂带特征及其启示.中国地震局科学技术委员会.科技委论坛12期,2000年1月
[1] 刘瑞丰,陈远泰,FrankKrueger,等.用远场资料反演西藏玛尼地震的高阶地震矩张量[J].地震学报,2000,22(3):225-231.
[2] 郭增建.立交模式及其在地震预报中的应用[J].西北地震学报,1985,7(1):94-101.
[3] 郭增建.由立交模式讨论地震预报[J].西北地震学报,1985,7(2):89-94.
[4] 郭增建,秦保燕.地震成因与地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1991.
[5] 郭增建,秦保燕.35度纬线与大震预报[J].西北地震学报,1991,13(2):93-95.
[6] 郭增建,秦保燕,李革平.天文因素与北纬35度线上的大震灾害[A].天文与自然灾害编委会.天文与自然灾害[M].北京:地震出版社,1991.45-47.
[7] 罗时芳,梁世光,叶叔华,等.地球自转速率变化的周期分析[J].天文学报,1974,15(1):79-85.
[8] 郭增建.我国天灾预测的综合地球物理研究[J].地球物理学报,1997,(纪念中国地球物理学会50周年专刊):411-419.
[9] 郭增建,秦保燕,李革平.未来灾害学[M].北京:地震出版社,1992.
[10] 郭增建,秦保燕,李海华,徐文耀.磁暴、天气韵律与发震时间[J].地震战线,1977,(3):26-29.
[11] 郭增建,秦保燕,李海华,徐文耀.预报地震的倍九法[J].地震战线,1977,(5):30-32.
[12] 朱振全.“月相”与冷空气活动预报[J].大气科学,1982,6(1):44-51.
[1] 刘瑞丰,陈远泰,FrankKrueger,等.用远场资料反演西藏玛尼地震的高阶地震矩张量[J].地震学报,2000,22(3):225-231.
[2] 郭增建.立交模式及其在地震预报中的应用[J].西北地震学报,1985,7(1):94-101.
[3] 郭增建.由立交模式讨论地震预报[J].西北地震学报,1985,7(2):89-94.
[4] 郭增建,秦保燕.地震成因与地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1991.
[5] 郭增建,秦保燕.35度纬线与大震预报[J].西北地震学报,1991,13(2):93-95.
[6] 郭增建,秦保燕,李革平.天文因素与北纬35度线上的大震灾害[A].天文与自然灾害编委会.天文与自然灾害[M].北京:地震出版社,1991.45-47.
[7] 罗时芳,梁世光,叶叔华,等.地球自转速率变化的周期分析[J].天文学报,1974,15(1):79-85.
[8] 郭增建.我国天灾预测的综合地球物理研究[J].地球物理学报,1997,(纪念中国地球物理学会50周年专刊):411-419.
[9] 郭增建,秦保燕,李革平.未来灾害学[M].北京:地震出版社,1992.
[10] 郭增建,秦保燕,李海华,徐文耀.磁暴、天气韵律与发震时间[J].地震战线,1977,(3):26-29.
[11] 郭增建,秦保燕,李海华,徐文耀.预报地震的倍九法[J].地震战线,1977,(5):30-32.
[12] 朱振全.“月相”与冷空气活动预报[J].大气科学,1982,6(1):44-51.
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