天文因素与中国大陆大震趋势研究
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摘要
全面分析了20世纪发生于中国大陆的7.0级以上大地震与天文因素的关系,分析结果表明,20世纪中国大陆71%的大地震发生于月亮轨道(白道)与赤道交角变小的阶段,这说明月亮轨道运行至这一位置时将会是中国地震的活跃期。太阳活动及地球自转亦均与中国大地震的发生密切相关,太阳活动的谷年普遍都有大地震发生;地球自转速度加快时大地震多,20世纪地球自转速度加快时段发生的大地震占72%。经互相关分析发现,中国大陆大震活动滞后于太阳黑子相对数峰年约6年,滞后于地球自转最快年约12年。文中最后根据目前月亮白赤交角的变化,以及太阳活动与地球自转预测中国大陆下一个大地震活动幕可能开始于2006年,并有可能延续至2015年。在此期间内,中国大陆将会有多个M≥7.0的地震发生。
This paper analyses throughly the relationship between the astronomical factors and the earthquakes of M≥7.0 occurred in mainland of China during 20th century.The analysed results indicate that 71% of the earthquakes mentioned above occurred in the period when the inclination between moon's path and the equator turns small.It shows that seismic active period in China will come when lunar orbit moves to these positions.The solar activity and(earth's) rotation have a direct effect on the major seismic earthquakes in China.There are ordinarily the occurrence of the major eavents in the gorge year of the solar activity.There are more earthquakes when the(earth's) rotation speeds.72% of the major earthquakes in 20th century occurred during the accelaration period of the(earth's) rotation.By means of the correlation analysis it is found that major seismic activity in mainland of China has approximately a 6 years lag behind the year with peak value of the sunspot and a 12 years lag behind the year with earth's fastest rotation.According to the situation of change of the inclination between the moon's path and equator,solar activity and earth's rotation at present,it is predicted that next curtain of the seisinic activity in mainland of China will probably start at AD 2006,and it may last to 2015.During this period many earthquakes of M≥7.0 will occure in mainland of China.
This paper analyses throughly the relationship between the astronomical factors and the earthquakes of M≥7.0 occurred in mainland of China during 20th century.The analysed results indicate that 71% of the earthquakes mentioned above occurred in the period when the inclination between moon's path and the equator turns small.It shows that seismic active period in China will come when lunar orbit moves to these positions.The solar activity and(earth's) rotation have a direct effect on the major seismic earthquakes in China.There are ordinarily the occurrence of the major eavents in the gorge year of the solar activity.There are more earthquakes when the(earth's) rotation speeds.72% of the major earthquakes in 20th century occurred during the accelaration period of the(earth's) rotation.By means of the correlation analysis it is found that major seismic activity in mainland of China has approximately a 6 years lag behind the year with peak value of the sunspot and a 12 years lag behind the year with earth's fastest rotation.According to the situation of change of the inclination between the moon's path and equator,solar activity and earth's rotation at present,it is predicted that next curtain of the seisinic activity in mainland of China will probably start at AD 2006,and it may last to 2015.During this period many earthquakes of M≥7.0 will occure in mainland of China.
引文
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[16]韩延本,韩永刚.太阳黑子相对数变化的小波分析[J].科学通报,2001,46(24):2031-2034.
[17]赵洪声,刘祖荫.云南地震预报系统论[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.90-112.
[18]方俊.固体潮[M].北京:科学出版社,1984.
[2]Tokso¨zM N.Lunar and planetary seismology[J].Reviews of Geophysics and Space Physics,1975,13(3):117-123.
[3]Shlien S.Earthquake-tide correlation[J].J.Geophys.Res.1972,28(1):27-34.
[4]韩延本,胡辉,王锐,聂若雨.Test of effect of tide generating forces on global greal earthquakes[A].Proceed ings ofTh ird International Sym-posium on Geophysics[C].Tanta,2004.432-435.
[5]胡辉,李晓明.Research on correlation of positions of celestial ob jects w ith earthquakes[J].NaturalHazards,2001,23:339-348.
[6]马晋宗,等.1996-1997年中国九大地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.172-204.
[7]《中国地震简目》汇编组.中国地震简目[Z].1988,158.
[8]李晓明,胡辉.中国大地震的天体位置特征分析[J].地球物理学报,1998,41(6):780-786.
[9]胡辉,李晓明.中国大地震的天文特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(1):30-31.
[10]罗葆荣.高能粒子流对地震活动的可能调制[J].云南天文台台刊,1995,(3):1-11.
[11]赵洪声,张世杰,胡辉,罗葆荣,等.天-气-地耦合与地震预报[M].昆明:云南大学出版社,1994.63-68.
[12]郭增建,秦保燕,郭安宁.地气偶合与天灾预测[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.165-188.
[13]贝达特J S,皮尔索A G.随机数据分析方法[M].凌福根译.北京:国防工业出版社,1976.72-24.
[14]International Earth Rotation Service(IERS).IERS Annual Report for 2000[R].Frankfurt am Main,2001.
[15]韩延本.太阳黑子相对数峰值及其出现时间的一种预测方法[J].科学通报,2000,45(4):356-359.
[16]韩延本,韩永刚.太阳黑子相对数变化的小波分析[J].科学通报,2001,46(24):2031-2034.
[17]赵洪声,刘祖荫.云南地震预报系统论[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.90-112.
[18]方俊.固体潮[M].北京:科学出版社,1984.
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