安徽及其周边地区小震活动水平统计预测

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英文篇名：Statistical Prediction of Small Earthquake Activities in Anhui and Its Neighboring Regions 中文刊名：灾害学 英文刊名：Journal of Catastrophology 作者：汪雪泉 ; 李罡风 ; 薛志明 英文作者：WANG Xue-uan ; LI Gang-feng and XUE Zhi-ming(Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province ; Hefei 230031 ; China) 中文关键词：地质块体 ; 地震活动水平 ; 统计预测 ; 安徽 英文关键词：tectonic block ; seismic activity ; statistical prediction 出版日期：2005-09-30 机构：安徽省地震局,安徽省地震局,安徽省地震局 安徽合肥230031 ,安徽合肥230031 ,安徽合肥230031 年：2005 期：03 出版单位：灾害学

摘要

依据地质构造块体的不同,将安徽及其周边地区分为华北、黄海和华南三个地震区。利用马尔可夫模型对三个地震区的中小地震活动水平进行统计预测,结果显示,一年之内华北地震区一般会发生M s≥3.0级地震,有可能发生M s≥3.5级地震,而发生M s≥4.0级地震的可能性却不大。黄海地震区一年内一般会发生M s≥3.5级地震,有可能发生M s≥4.0级地震,发生M s≥4.5级地震的可能性不大。华南地震区一年内一般会发生M s≥2.5级地震,有可能发生M s≥3.0级地震,但发生M s≥3.5级地震的可能性不大。
In terms of different tectonic block,Anhui and its neighboring regions can be divided into three earthquake regions,North China,Yellow Sea and South China earthquake regions.Based on the Markoff model,the small earthquake activities in the three regions are predicted statistically.The results are as follows: within one year,in North China the probability M_S≥3.0 is between 0.8 and 1.0 and the probability M_S≥3.5 is between 0.5 and 0.8, but the probability M_S≥4.0 is lower than 0.5;in Yellow Sea the probability M_S≥3.5 is between 0.8 and 1.0 and the probability M_S≥4.0 is between 0.5 and 0.8,but the probability M_S≥4.5 is lower than 0.5;in South China the probability M_S≥2.5 is between 0.8 and 1.0 and the probability M_S≥3.0 is between 0.5 and 0.8,but the probability M_S≥3.5 is lower than 0.5.

引文

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