西北太平洋M_s≥7．8级强震影响我国月季降水场的过程分析
摘要
地震与气候变化的关系现已成为一个研究热点.本文根据地球流体力学的长波理论,研究了强震地热涡的长波运动特性;分析了西太平洋M_s≥7.8级强震与我国月降水场的对应关系.研究结果表明,与强震相伴的地热涡尺度超过850 km时,它会向西退行,从而影响我国月季降水场的相应演变.利用上述结果。对2007年我国汛期降水分布进行了预报,实况证明此方法可行.
The relationship between earthquake and climatic change has become a hotspot in geosciences with the upgrading of our understanding of the earth system.Based on the long wave theory in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,we studied the long wave features of Geothermal Vortexes accompanied by strong earthquakes,and analyzed the corresponding patterns of strong earthquakes(M_s≥7.8)in northwest Pacific ocean and the monthly precipitation fields in China. The result shows that when the scale of Geothermal Vortex accompanied by strong earthquake is larger than 850km,the Geothermal Vortex will move westward,as a result,it will have impact on the evolution of monthly-seasonal precipitation field in China.From the result above,we predicted the flood season's precipitation in 2007 in China,the observed precipitation proved our prediction well.
The relationship between earthquake and climatic change has become a hotspot in geosciences with the upgrading of our understanding of the earth system.Based on the long wave theory in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,we studied the long wave features of Geothermal Vortexes accompanied by strong earthquakes,and analyzed the corresponding patterns of strong earthquakes(M_s≥7.8)in northwest Pacific ocean and the monthly precipitation fields in China. The result shows that when the scale of Geothermal Vortex accompanied by strong earthquake is larger than 850km,the Geothermal Vortex will move westward,as a result,it will have impact on the evolution of monthly-seasonal precipitation field in China.From the result above,we predicted the flood season's precipitation in 2007 in China,the observed precipitation proved our prediction well.
引文
(1)兰州高原天灾预防研究所．2007年6～8月全国降水预测意见．见：中国气象局国家气候中心编．气候预测评论，北京．2007．(13)：20～21
[1]汤懋苍，赵红岩，张存杰等．地气图预测气候变化的原理和方法(上)．北京：气象出版社，2007．1～132 Tang M C,Zhao H Y,Zhang C J,et al.The theories and rules of Di-qi map method for climate prediction(Volume I)(in Chinese).Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007. 1～132
[2]范新刚．汤懋苍．土壤传导—对漉热通量计算的初步结果．高原气象．1994，13(1)：14～19 Fan X G,Tang M C.A preliminary study on conductive and convective soil heat flux.Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese), 1994,13(1):14～19
[3]汤懋苍，高晓清．1980—1993年我国“地热涡”的若干统计特征Ⅰ—“地热涡”的时空分布．中国科学(B辑)，1995，25 (11)：1186～1192 Tang M C,Gao X Q.Some statistic characteristics of“Underground Hot Vortex”in China during 1980-1993 (Ⅰ)——Spatial-temporal distribution of Underground Hot Vortex.Science in China(Series B)(in Chinese),1995,25 (11):1186～1192
[4]汤懋苍，高晓清．1980—1993年我国“地热涡”的若干统计特征Ⅱ—“地热涡”与地震的统计相关．中国科学(B辑)，1995，25(12)：1313～1319 Tang M C,Gao X Q.Some statistic characteristics of“Underground Hot Vortex”in China during 1980—1993 (Ⅱ)—Statistic correlation between“Underground Hot Vortex”and earthquake(in Chinese).Science in China (Series B),1995,25(12):1313～1319
[5]赵红岩，汤懋苍，张拥军等．“旱-震-涝”关系及其在短期气候预测中的可能应用．自然科学进展．2007，17(1)：132～137 Zhao H Y,Tang M C,Zhang Y J,et al.The connection of“Drought-Earthquake-Flood”and its possible use in short- term climate prediction(in Chinese).Advance in Natural Sciences(in Chinese),2007,17(1):132～137
[6]朱乾根．林锦瑞，寿绍文等．天气学原理和方法．北京：气象出版杜，1992．254 Zhu Q G,Lin J R,Shou S W,et al.Theories and Rules of Synoptic Meteorology(in Chinese).Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1992.254
[7]梅世蓉，冯德益等．中国地震预报概论．北京：地震出版社，1993．232 Mei S R,Feng D Y,et al.Introduction to Earthquake Prediction in China(in Chinese).Beijing..Seismological Press.1993.232
[8]郭增建．秦保燕．郭安宁．地气耦合与天灾预测．北京；地震出版社，1996．332 Guo Z J,Qin B Y,Guo A N.Earth-Atmosphere Coupling and Prediction of Natural Disasters.Beijing:China Seismological Press,1996.332
[1]汤懋苍，赵红岩，张存杰等．地气图预测气候变化的原理和方法(上)．北京：气象出版社，2007．1～132 Tang M C,Zhao H Y,Zhang C J,et al.The theories and rules of Di-qi map method for climate prediction(Volume I)(in Chinese).Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007. 1～132
[2]范新刚．汤懋苍．土壤传导—对漉热通量计算的初步结果．高原气象．1994，13(1)：14～19 Fan X G,Tang M C.A preliminary study on conductive and convective soil heat flux.Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese), 1994,13(1):14～19
[3]汤懋苍，高晓清．1980—1993年我国“地热涡”的若干统计特征Ⅰ—“地热涡”的时空分布．中国科学(B辑)，1995，25 (11)：1186～1192 Tang M C,Gao X Q.Some statistic characteristics of“Underground Hot Vortex”in China during 1980-1993 (Ⅰ)——Spatial-temporal distribution of Underground Hot Vortex.Science in China(Series B)(in Chinese),1995,25 (11):1186～1192
[4]汤懋苍，高晓清．1980—1993年我国“地热涡”的若干统计特征Ⅱ—“地热涡”与地震的统计相关．中国科学(B辑)，1995，25(12)：1313～1319 Tang M C,Gao X Q.Some statistic characteristics of“Underground Hot Vortex”in China during 1980—1993 (Ⅱ)—Statistic correlation between“Underground Hot Vortex”and earthquake(in Chinese).Science in China (Series B),1995,25(12):1313～1319
[5]赵红岩，汤懋苍，张拥军等．“旱-震-涝”关系及其在短期气候预测中的可能应用．自然科学进展．2007，17(1)：132～137 Zhao H Y,Tang M C,Zhang Y J,et al.The connection of“Drought-Earthquake-Flood”and its possible use in short- term climate prediction(in Chinese).Advance in Natural Sciences(in Chinese),2007,17(1):132～137
[6]朱乾根．林锦瑞，寿绍文等．天气学原理和方法．北京：气象出版杜，1992．254 Zhu Q G,Lin J R,Shou S W,et al.Theories and Rules of Synoptic Meteorology(in Chinese).Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1992.254
[7]梅世蓉，冯德益等．中国地震预报概论．北京：地震出版社，1993．232 Mei S R,Feng D Y,et al.Introduction to Earthquake Prediction in China(in Chinese).Beijing..Seismological Press.1993.232
[8]郭增建．秦保燕．郭安宁．地气耦合与天灾预测．北京；地震出版社，1996．332 Guo Z J,Qin B Y,Guo A N.Earth-Atmosphere Coupling and Prediction of Natural Disasters.Beijing:China Seismological Press,1996.332
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