甘肃年度地震危险区划定的R值评分研究
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摘要
年度地震危险区是一个比较特殊的评价对象。作者在前人研究的基础上对R值评分公式做了适当的改进,将原有方法的用地震个数求报准率,改为用地震危险区面积求取报准率,在不改变公式物理意义的前提下,使其更适合于对年度地震危险区这个特殊对象做出科学评价。改进后的公式排除了数学上不成立的情况,不鼓励虚测,不鼓励漏测。对甘肃1986~2007年的年度地震危险区和目前甘肃地震预测预报水平做出了科学客观的评价。依据评价结果提出了改进年度地震危险区划定方法的建议。
Prediction for annual seismic risk areas is a special evaluation object. The paper tries to improve the formula of R value on the basis of former researches. Under the condition of not changing the physic meaning of formula, the original method based on the number of earthquakes has been changed to the seismic risk area method in order to seek the exactitude rate of prediction and make it more suitable for scientific evaluation of annual seismic risk areas. The paper makes a simple demonstration of the improved formula. The improved formula excludes the inequality on mathematics that will discourage false declaration and misreporting. A scientific summary is made on the prediction for seismic risk from 1986 to 2007 and the present level of earthquake prediction in Gansu and a proposal for the criterion on determining annual seismic risk area is forwarded with the help of the evaluation result.
Prediction for annual seismic risk areas is a special evaluation object. The paper tries to improve the formula of R value on the basis of former researches. Under the condition of not changing the physic meaning of formula, the original method based on the number of earthquakes has been changed to the seismic risk area method in order to seek the exactitude rate of prediction and make it more suitable for scientific evaluation of annual seismic risk areas. The paper makes a simple demonstration of the improved formula. The improved formula excludes the inequality on mathematics that will discourage false declaration and misreporting. A scientific summary is made on the prediction for seismic risk from 1986 to 2007 and the present level of earthquake prediction in Gansu and a proposal for the criterion on determining annual seismic risk area is forwarded with the help of the evaluation result.
引文
丁国瑜、梅世蓉、马宗晋,1981,地震预报方法,国际地震预报讨论会论文选,413~415,北京:地震出版社。
国家地震局地球物理研究所,1973,震兆分析一例,地震战线,2,70~82。
罗兰格,2004,R值评分方法的再研究,华北地震科学,22(2),1~5。
梅世蓉、冯德益、张国民等,1993,中国地震预报概论,北京:地震出版社。
石耀霖、刘杰、张国民,2000,对我国90年代地震预报的评估,中国科学院研究生院学报,17(1),63~69。
许绍燮,1989,地震预报能力评分,地震预报方法实用化研究文集——地震学专辑,北京:学术书刊出版社,586~589。
张国民、刘杰、石耀霖,2002,年度地震预报能力的科学评价,地震学报,24(5),525~532。
Ma Z.J.,Fu Z.X.,Zhang Y.Z.et al.,1989,Earthquake Prediction.Beijing:Seismological Press and Berlin Heidelberg:Springer-verlag,1~332.
Zhang G.M.,Ma Z.J.,Liu D.F.et al.,1984,Onthe procedure of earthquake predictionin China.In:The Organizing Committeeof ISCSEPed.ACollectionof Papers of International Symposiumon Continental Earthquake.Beijing:Seismological Press,839~845.
国家地震局地球物理研究所,1973,震兆分析一例,地震战线,2,70~82。
罗兰格,2004,R值评分方法的再研究,华北地震科学,22(2),1~5。
梅世蓉、冯德益、张国民等,1993,中国地震预报概论,北京:地震出版社。
石耀霖、刘杰、张国民,2000,对我国90年代地震预报的评估,中国科学院研究生院学报,17(1),63~69。
许绍燮,1989,地震预报能力评分,地震预报方法实用化研究文集——地震学专辑,北京:学术书刊出版社,586~589。
张国民、刘杰、石耀霖,2002,年度地震预报能力的科学评价,地震学报,24(5),525~532。
Ma Z.J.,Fu Z.X.,Zhang Y.Z.et al.,1989,Earthquake Prediction.Beijing:Seismological Press and Berlin Heidelberg:Springer-verlag,1~332.
Zhang G.M.,Ma Z.J.,Liu D.F.et al.,1984,Onthe procedure of earthquake predictionin China.In:The Organizing Committeeof ISCSEPed.ACollectionof Papers of International Symposiumon Continental Earthquake.Beijing:Seismological Press,839~845.
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