供水系统地震风险评估及升级优化
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摘要
为了评估供水系统地震风险和确定关键供水管道,建立了系统震后供水率S、管道升级收益指数U和管道断裂影响指数B 3项评价指标,并运用基于蒙特卡洛仿真的地震作用下流体的图解迭代响应分析(GIRAFFE)方法对供水系统在地面峰值速度vG=50 cm/s时进行了风险分析.仿真结果表明,S的分布特征与节点的用水需求分布关系密切,U能作为首要指标并通过一次运算来确定系统中的单个关键供水管道和最大收益管道组合,它是管道断裂影响指数和管道断裂程度共同作用的结果.由单个关键供水管道组成的升级组合并不是最佳的升级优化策略,升级最大收益管道组合能最大程度地提高系统震后供水绩效并降低地震风险.
To evaluate seismic risk and identify critical pipelines of water supply system,water supply index(S),pipeline update profit(U) and pipeline break consequence(B) are set up to describe system seismic performance,and the graphical iterative response analysis of flow following earthquakes(GIRAFFE) based on Monte Carlo simulation is applied to the hypothetical water supply system for peak ground velocity vG=50 cm/s.The simulation result shows that the distribution of S is related to nodes' demand pattern in the system.Calculated by running single Monte Carlo simulation,U could be used as primary indicator to identify individual critical pipelines and maximum benefit portfolio,and it is the consequence of B and pipelines' damage probability.Updating the group with largest individual critical pipelines is not the best strategy for the system,and the system seismic performance would be most improved by updating maximum benefit portfolio.
To evaluate seismic risk and identify critical pipelines of water supply system,water supply index(S),pipeline update profit(U) and pipeline break consequence(B) are set up to describe system seismic performance,and the graphical iterative response analysis of flow following earthquakes(GIRAFFE) based on Monte Carlo simulation is applied to the hypothetical water supply system for peak ground velocity vG=50 cm/s.The simulation result shows that the distribution of S is related to nodes' demand pattern in the system.Calculated by running single Monte Carlo simulation,U could be used as primary indicator to identify individual critical pipelines and maximum benefit portfolio,and it is the consequence of B and pipelines' damage probability.Updating the group with largest individual critical pipelines is not the best strategy for the system,and the system seismic performance would be most improved by updating maximum benefit portfolio.
引文
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[2]Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.Northridgeearthquake of January 17,1994:preliminaryreconnaissance report[R].Oakland:EERI,1994.
[3]MARKOV I,GRIGORIU M,O’ROURKE T D.Anevaluation of seismic serviceability water supply networkswith application to the San Francisco auxiliary watersupply system,technical report NCEER-94-0001[R].New York:Multidisciplinary Center for EarthquakeEngineering Research,1994.
[4]O’ROURKE T D,BONNEARU A L,PEASE J W,etal.Liquefaction and ground failures in San Francisco[J].Earthquake Spectra,2006,22(S2):91-112.
[5]SCAWTHORN C,O’ROURKE T D,BALCKBURN FT.The San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906:enduring lesson for fire protection and water supply[J].Earthquake Spectra,2006,22(S2):135-158.
[6]CHANG S E,SVEKLA W D,SHINOZUKA M.Linkinginfrastructure and urban economy:simulation of waterdisruption impacts in earthquakes[J].Environ Plan BPlan,2002,29(2):281-301.
[7]WANG Y.Seismic performance evaluation of water su-pply systems[D].New York:Cornell University,2006.
[8]SHI P.Seismic response modeling of water supply system[D].New York:Cornell University,2006.
[9]韩阳.城市地下管网系统的地震可靠性研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2002.
[10]何双华.供水管网系统抗震可靠性分析及加固优化研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2009.
[11]ROSSMAN.EPANET 2 users manual[M].Cincinnati:National Risk Management Research Labortory,Office ofResearch and Development,US EnvironmentalProtection Agency,2000.
[12]JEON S S,O’ROURKE T D.Northridge earthquakeeffects on pipelines and residential buildings[J].BullSeismol Soc Am,2005,95(1):294-318.
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