新疆钻孔应变异常与强震活动
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摘要
在新疆钻孔应变 18年的观测期间 ,发生了 6级以上强震 17组 (次 ) ,其中 7级以上地震 5次 ,8级以上地震 1次。钻孔应变资料在 6 4%强震前记录到了异常变化。其中属于天山和塔里木地块周边的 15例强震中 ,在 11例地震前钻孔应变资料出现了异常 ,占全部强震的 73%。利用钻孔应变资料正确预报的地震数仅 4例 ,占全部强震的 2 3% ,占天山及塔里木地块周边地震数的 2 6 %。在这些强震中距离台站 2 5 0 km范围以内发生的地震有 7例 ,正确预报的有 4例 ,占 5 7%。
Borehole strain has been observed in Xinjiang for 18 years, in which 17 times (groups) of events with magnitude 6 or more occurred, 5 with M≥7, 1 with M≥8. The borehole strain data showed anomaly before 64 percent of these shocks. Among the 15 events occurred in Tianshan and Tarim Basin block and vicinity, before 11 ones appeared borehole strain anomalies, which account for 73 percent of total strong shocks. 4 accurate predictions were given based on borehole strain data, which amount to 23 percent of total strong events and 26 percent of shocks in Tianshan and Tarim Basin block and vicinity. In 7 strong earthquakes that occurred in a range within 250 km from the borehole strain stations, 4 were accurately predicted, which make up 57 percent of 7 events.
Borehole strain has been observed in Xinjiang for 18 years, in which 17 times (groups) of events with magnitude 6 or more occurred, 5 with M≥7, 1 with M≥8. The borehole strain data showed anomaly before 64 percent of these shocks. Among the 15 events occurred in Tianshan and Tarim Basin block and vicinity, before 11 ones appeared borehole strain anomalies, which account for 73 percent of total strong shocks. 4 accurate predictions were given based on borehole strain data, which amount to 23 percent of total strong events and 26 percent of shocks in Tianshan and Tarim Basin block and vicinity. In 7 strong earthquakes that occurred in a range within 250 km from the borehole strain stations, 4 were accurately predicted, which make up 57 percent of 7 events.
引文
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[2]蒋靖祥,赖爱京,胡群,等.利用钻孔应变资料预报新疆伽师强震群[J].西北地震学报,1998,20(2):16—21.
[3]蒋靖祥,马世贵,郭伟英,等.和硕5.0级地震临震预报[J].内陆地震,1998,12(1):92—96.
[4]许风柱,胡琼.应变异常分析与临震预报探讨[J].西北地震学报,2000,22(2):139—142.
[5]蒋靖祥,尹光华,许风柱.新疆和静5.7级地震前钻孔应变异常及预报[J].四川地震,2002,(3):21—26.
[6]张晓青,顾永康.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前青海省形变及地温前兆特征分析[J].高原地震,2002,14(1):70—75.
[7]尹亮,李志坚,陈兰新,等.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前高台钻孔应变异常特征[J].高原地震,2002,14(1):83—86.
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