对孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论的进一步验证及有关科学问题的讨论
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摘要
基于作者最近发展的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,本文对世界范围内的典型大地震进行了回溯性预测验证,表明该理论能可靠地应用于大地震的预测.本文还对地震科学研究中某些有争议的问题进行了分析,澄清了某些认识上的误区.
The retrospective prediction verifications for the global great earthquakes are performed based on the the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches along a seismogenic fault system developed recently by us.It is shown that this theory can be reliably applied to forecast the occurrence time,magnitude and place of earthquakes.Also, some controversial issues in seismological research are explained and some misunderstandings are corrected.
The retrospective prediction verifications for the global great earthquakes are performed based on the the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches along a seismogenic fault system developed recently by us.It is shown that this theory can be reliably applied to forecast the occurrence time,magnitude and place of earthquakes.Also, some controversial issues in seismological research are explained and some misunderstandings are corrected.
引文
[1] 陈运泰.地震预测:回顾与展望.[J]中国科学D辑:地球科学,2009,39(12) :1633～1658． Chen Y T. Earthquake prediction: Review and Prospect (in Chinese) [J]. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 2009, 39(12) : 1633～ 1658．
[2] 楚全芝,邓志辉,杨竹转.中国大陆地震构造特点及其在地震危险性预测中的作用[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(2) :395～ 402． Chu Q Z,Deng Z H, Yang Z Z. Seismo-tectonic features and their effects of the earthquake prediction in China-Mainland [J]. Progress in Geophysics, 2007,22(2) :395～402．
[3] 郭梦秋,符力耘.利用地震观测资料预测震源区应力变化研究进展综述[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(3) :375～383． Guo M Q, Fu L Y. Review of methods for studying source zone stress changes from seismic data [ J ]. Progress in Geophysics, 2008,23(3) :375～383．
[4] 李勇.基于固体潮的地震模拟预警系统的初步设计[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(2) :384～391． Li Y. A tentative earthquake warning system for the planet Earth. [J] Progress in Geophysics, 2008,23(2) :384～391．
[5] 戴志阳,陈宇卫,傅容珊.前兆性地震平静研究[J].地球物理学进展,2006,21(1) :18～24． Dai Z Y, Chen Y W, Fu R S. The study of precursory seismic quiescence[J]. Progress in Geophysics, 2006,21(1) : 18～24．
[6] 郝晓光,胡小刚.宽带地震仪资料证实汶川大地震“震前重力扰动”[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(4) :1332～1335． Hao X G, Hu X G. Disturbance before the Wenchuan earthquake detected by broadband seismometer[J]. Progress in Geophysics, 2008,23(4) :1332～1335．
[7] 赵国泽,陈小斌,蔡军涛.电磁卫星和地震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(3) :667～673． Zhao G Z, Chen X B, Cai J T. Electromagnetic observation by satellite and earthquake prediction [ J ]. Progress in Geophysics, 2007,22(3) :667～673．
[8] 门可佩.重大地震灾害链的时空有序性及其预测研究[J].球物理学进展,2007,22(2) :645～651． Men K P. Time-space order of severe earthquake disaster chain and its prediction[J]. Progress in Geophysics, 2007,22 (2) :645～651．
[9] 陈运泰.地震预测要知难而进[J].求是,2008,(15) :58～60． Chen Y T. Advance despite difficulties for earthquake prediction[J]. Realistic magazine, 2008, (15) :58～60
[10] McCann W R, Nishenko S P, Sykes L R, et al. Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries [J]. PureApplGeophys, 1979, 117: 1082～1147．
[11] 傅承义.有关地震预告的几个问题[J].科学通报,1963,(3) :30～36． Fu C Y. Some problems related to earthquake prediction[J]. Sci Bull. (in Chinese), 1963, (3) :30～36．
[12] Sobolev G A, Chelidze T L, Zavyalov A D, etal. The maps of expected earthquakes based on a combination of parameters [J]. Tectonophysics, 1991, 193: 255～265．
[13] Rundle J B, Klein W, Tiampo K F, et al. Linear pattern dynamics in nonlinear threshold systems[J]. Phys Rev E, 2000, 61: 2418～2431．
[14] Keilis-Borok V I, Knopoff L, Rotwain I M, et al. Intermediate-term prediction of occurrence times of strong earthquakes[J]. Nature, 1988, 335: 690～694．
[15] Migna A, Bowman D D, King G C P. A mathematical formulation of accelerating moment release based on the stress accumulation model[J]. J Geophys Res, 2007, 111:Bl1304．
[16] Geller R J, Jackson D D, Kagan Y Y, et al. Earthquakes cannot be predicted[J]. Science, 1997, 275 : 1616．
[17] 秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(4) :1001～1014． Qin S Q, Xu X W, Hu P, et al. Brittle failure mechanism of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and exploration on a new way for earthquake prediction [ J ]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 2010, 53(4) :1001～1014．
[18] 秦四清,王媛媛,马平.崩滑灾害临界位移演化的指数律[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(5) :873～880． Qin S Q, Wang Y Y, Ma P. Exponential laws of critical displacement evolution for landslides and avalanches [J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2010,29 (5) :837～880．
[19] Lei X. How do asperities fracture? an experimental study of unbroken asperities[J]. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2003, 213: 347～359．
[20] Steven C J, Lynn R S. Evolving towards a critical point: a review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior to large and great Earthquakes[J]. Pure Appl. Geophys, 1999, 155: 279～306．
[21] Scordilis E M, Papazachos C B, Karakaisis G F, Karakostas V G. Accelerating seismic crustal deformation before strong mainshocks in Adriatic and its importance for earthquake prediction[J]. Journal of Seismology, 2004, 8: 57～70．
[22] Papazachos B, Papazachos C. Accelerated preshock deformation of broad regions in the Aegean area[J]. Pure Appl Geophys, 2000, 157:1663～1681
[23] Papazachos C B, Karakaisis G F, Scordilis E M, Papazachos B C. Global observational properties of the critical earthquake mode[J]l. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2005, 95(5) : 1841～1855．
[24] 张国敏,傅征祥等.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社,2001,72． Zhang G M, Fu Z X et al. An introduction to earthquake forecast[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2001,72 .
[25] 苗青壮.中国大陆强震前应变释放特征[D].中国地震局兰州地震研究所硕士学位论文,2008,1～62． Miao Q Z. Strain release characteristics before strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland [D]. Thesis for Master's degree, Lanzhou institute of seismology, 2008, 1～62．
[26] 彭克银,尹祥础,和锐.用临界点理论讨论应变能加速释放现象和孕震区尺度[J].中国地震,2003,19(4) :425～430． Peng K Y, Yin X C, He Y. Accelerating strain release and earthquake genesis scaling exponents from critical point hypothesis. Earthquake Research in China, 2003, 19 (4) :425～430．
[27] Papazachos C B, Karakaisis G F, Scordilis E M, et al. New observational information on the precursory accelerating and decelerating strain energy release[J]. Tectonophysics, 2006,423: 83～96．
[28] Bufe C G, Varnes D J. Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco bay region [J ]. J. Geophys. Res. ,1993, 98: 9871～9883．
[29] 杨仕教,曾晟,王和龙.加载速率对石灰岩力学效应的试验研究[J].岩土工程学报,2005,27(7) :786～788． Yang S J, Ceng S, Wang H L. Experimental analysis on mechanical efects of loading rates on limestone[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2005, 27 (7) : 786 ～788．
[2] 楚全芝,邓志辉,杨竹转.中国大陆地震构造特点及其在地震危险性预测中的作用[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(2) :395～ 402． Chu Q Z,Deng Z H, Yang Z Z. Seismo-tectonic features and their effects of the earthquake prediction in China-Mainland [J]. Progress in Geophysics, 2007,22(2) :395～402．
[3] 郭梦秋,符力耘.利用地震观测资料预测震源区应力变化研究进展综述[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(3) :375～383． Guo M Q, Fu L Y. Review of methods for studying source zone stress changes from seismic data [ J ]. Progress in Geophysics, 2008,23(3) :375～383．
[4] 李勇.基于固体潮的地震模拟预警系统的初步设计[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(2) :384～391． Li Y. A tentative earthquake warning system for the planet Earth. [J] Progress in Geophysics, 2008,23(2) :384～391．
[5] 戴志阳,陈宇卫,傅容珊.前兆性地震平静研究[J].地球物理学进展,2006,21(1) :18～24． Dai Z Y, Chen Y W, Fu R S. The study of precursory seismic quiescence[J]. Progress in Geophysics, 2006,21(1) : 18～24．
[6] 郝晓光,胡小刚.宽带地震仪资料证实汶川大地震“震前重力扰动”[J].地球物理学进展,2008,23(4) :1332～1335． Hao X G, Hu X G. Disturbance before the Wenchuan earthquake detected by broadband seismometer[J]. Progress in Geophysics, 2008,23(4) :1332～1335．
[7] 赵国泽,陈小斌,蔡军涛.电磁卫星和地震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(3) :667～673． Zhao G Z, Chen X B, Cai J T. Electromagnetic observation by satellite and earthquake prediction [ J ]. Progress in Geophysics, 2007,22(3) :667～673．
[8] 门可佩.重大地震灾害链的时空有序性及其预测研究[J].球物理学进展,2007,22(2) :645～651． Men K P. Time-space order of severe earthquake disaster chain and its prediction[J]. Progress in Geophysics, 2007,22 (2) :645～651．
[9] 陈运泰.地震预测要知难而进[J].求是,2008,(15) :58～60． Chen Y T. Advance despite difficulties for earthquake prediction[J]. Realistic magazine, 2008, (15) :58～60
[10] McCann W R, Nishenko S P, Sykes L R, et al. Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries [J]. PureApplGeophys, 1979, 117: 1082～1147．
[11] 傅承义.有关地震预告的几个问题[J].科学通报,1963,(3) :30～36． Fu C Y. Some problems related to earthquake prediction[J]. Sci Bull. (in Chinese), 1963, (3) :30～36．
[12] Sobolev G A, Chelidze T L, Zavyalov A D, etal. The maps of expected earthquakes based on a combination of parameters [J]. Tectonophysics, 1991, 193: 255～265．
[13] Rundle J B, Klein W, Tiampo K F, et al. Linear pattern dynamics in nonlinear threshold systems[J]. Phys Rev E, 2000, 61: 2418～2431．
[14] Keilis-Borok V I, Knopoff L, Rotwain I M, et al. Intermediate-term prediction of occurrence times of strong earthquakes[J]. Nature, 1988, 335: 690～694．
[15] Migna A, Bowman D D, King G C P. A mathematical formulation of accelerating moment release based on the stress accumulation model[J]. J Geophys Res, 2007, 111:Bl1304．
[16] Geller R J, Jackson D D, Kagan Y Y, et al. Earthquakes cannot be predicted[J]. Science, 1997, 275 : 1616．
[17] 秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(4) :1001～1014． Qin S Q, Xu X W, Hu P, et al. Brittle failure mechanism of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and exploration on a new way for earthquake prediction [ J ]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 2010, 53(4) :1001～1014．
[18] 秦四清,王媛媛,马平.崩滑灾害临界位移演化的指数律[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(5) :873～880． Qin S Q, Wang Y Y, Ma P. Exponential laws of critical displacement evolution for landslides and avalanches [J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2010,29 (5) :837～880．
[19] Lei X. How do asperities fracture? an experimental study of unbroken asperities[J]. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2003, 213: 347～359．
[20] Steven C J, Lynn R S. Evolving towards a critical point: a review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior to large and great Earthquakes[J]. Pure Appl. Geophys, 1999, 155: 279～306．
[21] Scordilis E M, Papazachos C B, Karakaisis G F, Karakostas V G. Accelerating seismic crustal deformation before strong mainshocks in Adriatic and its importance for earthquake prediction[J]. Journal of Seismology, 2004, 8: 57～70．
[22] Papazachos B, Papazachos C. Accelerated preshock deformation of broad regions in the Aegean area[J]. Pure Appl Geophys, 2000, 157:1663～1681
[23] Papazachos C B, Karakaisis G F, Scordilis E M, Papazachos B C. Global observational properties of the critical earthquake mode[J]l. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2005, 95(5) : 1841～1855．
[24] 张国敏,傅征祥等.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社,2001,72． Zhang G M, Fu Z X et al. An introduction to earthquake forecast[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2001,72 .
[25] 苗青壮.中国大陆强震前应变释放特征[D].中国地震局兰州地震研究所硕士学位论文,2008,1～62． Miao Q Z. Strain release characteristics before strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland [D]. Thesis for Master's degree, Lanzhou institute of seismology, 2008, 1～62．
[26] 彭克银,尹祥础,和锐.用临界点理论讨论应变能加速释放现象和孕震区尺度[J].中国地震,2003,19(4) :425～430． Peng K Y, Yin X C, He Y. Accelerating strain release and earthquake genesis scaling exponents from critical point hypothesis. Earthquake Research in China, 2003, 19 (4) :425～430．
[27] Papazachos C B, Karakaisis G F, Scordilis E M, et al. New observational information on the precursory accelerating and decelerating strain energy release[J]. Tectonophysics, 2006,423: 83～96．
[28] Bufe C G, Varnes D J. Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco bay region [J ]. J. Geophys. Res. ,1993, 98: 9871～9883．
[29] 杨仕教,曾晟,王和龙.加载速率对石灰岩力学效应的试验研究[J].岩土工程学报,2005,27(7) :786～788． Yang S J, Ceng S, Wang H L. Experimental analysis on mechanical efects of loading rates on limestone[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2005, 27 (7) : 786 ～788．
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