海南井水位中期和中短期异常信息的提取方法及其特征分析
|
摘要
对海南地下流体观测井(泉)和测项进行严格筛选的基础上,运用月均值和从属函数异常判定方法,提取了所选井(泉)在海南及其邻近地区中等以上地震前出现的地下水位前兆异常信息,对前兆异常的特征做了分析研究。水位异常分为上升型中期异常和下降型中短期异常(即"破年变"异常)两类。从属函数中短期异常的平均超前时间在1 a左右,并可通过R值信息量检验,该时间可作为发震时间的中短期预测的参考性指标。
Based on careful selection of underground fluid observation wells(springs),and using the monthly means and subordinate function method,we select the precursory anomalies information of underground water level before the moderately strong earthquakes in Hainan and its vicinity from these wells(springs)and analyze the characteristics of these precursory anomalies.Anomalies in water level are categorized into two classes: ascending medium term anomalies and descending medium-short term anomalies.Statistics show that the average time of medium-short term anomalies in subordinate function is approximately one year before the earthquake,which can be used as reference time index for mid and short term earthquake prediction in this area.
Based on careful selection of underground fluid observation wells(springs),and using the monthly means and subordinate function method,we select the precursory anomalies information of underground water level before the moderately strong earthquakes in Hainan and its vicinity from these wells(springs)and analyze the characteristics of these precursory anomalies.Anomalies in water level are categorized into two classes: ascending medium term anomalies and descending medium-short term anomalies.Statistics show that the average time of medium-short term anomalies in subordinate function is approximately one year before the earthquake,which can be used as reference time index for mid and short term earthquake prediction in this area.
引文
车用太,鱼金子,王吉易,等.1998.晋冀蒙交界地区大气降水-地下水异常-地震活动关系试探[A].见:中国地震学会流体专业委员会,云南省地震局地方处编.地下流体前兆研究.北京:地震出版社.16—21.CHE Yong-tai,YU Jin-zi,WANG Ji-yi,et al.1998.Preliminary study on the relation between atmospheric precipitationand groundwater anomalies and earthquake activities in Shanxi-Hebei-Nei Mongol border region[A].In:Commit-tee of the Underground Fluid of China Seismological Society,Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province(eds).TheStudy on Underground Fluid Precursor.Seismological Press,Beijing.16—21(in Chinese).
范雪芳,张淑亮,王吉易,等.2002.地下流体中期和中短期前兆异常的四种判定方法[J].地震,22(4):136—139.FAN Xue-fang,ZHANG Shu-liang,WANG Ji-yi,et al.2002.Four kinds of judge methods for medium term and medium-short term precursory anomaly of ground fluid[J].Earthquake,22(4):136—139(in Chinese).
顾申宜,李志雄,张慧,等.2010.海南地区五口井水位对汶川地震的同震记录及其频谱分析[J].地震研究,33(1):35—43.GU Shen-yi,LI Zhi-xiong,ZHANG Hui,et al.2010.Coseismic response and its spectrum characteristics for the Wen-chuan strong earthquake through analysis of five wells water level in Hainan[J].Journal of Seismological Research,33(1):35—43(in Chinese).
蒋骏,李胜乐.2000.地震前兆信息处理与软件系统EIS2000[M].北京:地震出版社.34—35,231.JIANG Jun,LI Sheng-le.2000.Earthquake Precursory Information Processing and Software System(EIS2000)[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.34—35and231(in Chinese).
平建军,王吉易,张子广,等.2004.华北地区地下流体中期和转折型短期异常成因分析[J].地震地质,26(2):355—363.PING Jian-jun,WANG Ji-yi,ZHANG Zi-guang,et al.2004.Analysis of the causes of medium-term and broken line-typeshort-term anomalies of underground fluid in North China[J].Seismology and Geology,26(2):355—363(inChinese).
汪成民,车用太,万迪垄,等.1988.地下水微动态研究[M].北京:地震出版社.81—116.WANG Cheng-min,CHE Yong-tai,WAN Di-kun,et al.1988.Study of Micro-behavior of Groundwater[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.8l—116(in Chinese).
王吉易,宋贯一,曹志成,等.2002.地下水诱发的浅层前兆异常及其机理与有关的地震预报问题(1)[J].华北地震科学,20(2):27—41.WANG Ji-yi,SONG Guan-yi,CAO Zhi-cheng,et al.2002.The mechanism of shallowlayers anomaly caused by ground-water and its related question in earthquake prediction(1)[J].North China Earthquake Sciences,20(2):27—41(in Chinese).
许绍燮.1989.地震预报能力评分[A].见:国家地震局科技监测司编.地震预报方法实用化研究文集:地震学专集.北京:学术书刊出版社.586—589.XU Shao-xie.1989.An evaluation of earthquake prediction ability[A].In:Department of Science,Technology andMonitoring,China Earthquake Administration(ed).Collection of papers on practicability of earthquake predichonmethods-Seismology Monograph.Academic Journal Press,Beijing.586—589(in Chinese).
杨明波,王吉易,刘喜兰,等.2006.北京及邻近地区中等以上地震地下流体异常识别与特征研究[J].地震,26(3):53—63.YANG Ming-bo,WANG Ji-yi,LIU Xi-lan,et al.2006.Study on recognition of groundfluid anomaly and its characteris-tics for moderately strong earthquakes in Beijing region and its adjacent area[J].Earthquake,26(3):53—63(inChinese).
张炜,王吉易,鄂秀满,等.1988.水文地球化学预报地震的原理与方法[M].北京:教育科学出版社.113—132,170—172,252—285.ZHANG Wei,WANG Ji-yi,E Xiu-man,et al.1988.The Principle and Method of Earthquake Prediction by Hydrogeo-chemistry[M].Education Science Press,Beijing.113—132,170—172,252—285(in Chinese).
范雪芳,张淑亮,王吉易,等.2002.地下流体中期和中短期前兆异常的四种判定方法[J].地震,22(4):136—139.FAN Xue-fang,ZHANG Shu-liang,WANG Ji-yi,et al.2002.Four kinds of judge methods for medium term and medium-short term precursory anomaly of ground fluid[J].Earthquake,22(4):136—139(in Chinese).
顾申宜,李志雄,张慧,等.2010.海南地区五口井水位对汶川地震的同震记录及其频谱分析[J].地震研究,33(1):35—43.GU Shen-yi,LI Zhi-xiong,ZHANG Hui,et al.2010.Coseismic response and its spectrum characteristics for the Wen-chuan strong earthquake through analysis of five wells water level in Hainan[J].Journal of Seismological Research,33(1):35—43(in Chinese).
蒋骏,李胜乐.2000.地震前兆信息处理与软件系统EIS2000[M].北京:地震出版社.34—35,231.JIANG Jun,LI Sheng-le.2000.Earthquake Precursory Information Processing and Software System(EIS2000)[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.34—35and231(in Chinese).
平建军,王吉易,张子广,等.2004.华北地区地下流体中期和转折型短期异常成因分析[J].地震地质,26(2):355—363.PING Jian-jun,WANG Ji-yi,ZHANG Zi-guang,et al.2004.Analysis of the causes of medium-term and broken line-typeshort-term anomalies of underground fluid in North China[J].Seismology and Geology,26(2):355—363(inChinese).
汪成民,车用太,万迪垄,等.1988.地下水微动态研究[M].北京:地震出版社.81—116.WANG Cheng-min,CHE Yong-tai,WAN Di-kun,et al.1988.Study of Micro-behavior of Groundwater[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.8l—116(in Chinese).
王吉易,宋贯一,曹志成,等.2002.地下水诱发的浅层前兆异常及其机理与有关的地震预报问题(1)[J].华北地震科学,20(2):27—41.WANG Ji-yi,SONG Guan-yi,CAO Zhi-cheng,et al.2002.The mechanism of shallowlayers anomaly caused by ground-water and its related question in earthquake prediction(1)[J].North China Earthquake Sciences,20(2):27—41(in Chinese).
许绍燮.1989.地震预报能力评分[A].见:国家地震局科技监测司编.地震预报方法实用化研究文集:地震学专集.北京:学术书刊出版社.586—589.XU Shao-xie.1989.An evaluation of earthquake prediction ability[A].In:Department of Science,Technology andMonitoring,China Earthquake Administration(ed).Collection of papers on practicability of earthquake predichonmethods-Seismology Monograph.Academic Journal Press,Beijing.586—589(in Chinese).
杨明波,王吉易,刘喜兰,等.2006.北京及邻近地区中等以上地震地下流体异常识别与特征研究[J].地震,26(3):53—63.YANG Ming-bo,WANG Ji-yi,LIU Xi-lan,et al.2006.Study on recognition of groundfluid anomaly and its characteris-tics for moderately strong earthquakes in Beijing region and its adjacent area[J].Earthquake,26(3):53—63(inChinese).
张炜,王吉易,鄂秀满,等.1988.水文地球化学预报地震的原理与方法[M].北京:教育科学出版社.113—132,170—172,252—285.ZHANG Wei,WANG Ji-yi,E Xiu-man,et al.1988.The Principle and Method of Earthquake Prediction by Hydrogeo-chemistry[M].Education Science Press,Beijing.113—132,170—172,252—285(in Chinese).
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心