东北第五活跃期中强震前的矩释放空间扫描特征研究
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摘要
为考察中国东北地区中强震前是否存在与地震孕育过程物理相关的地震矩加速释放现象,利用"地震矩释放程度"m值对该地区第五活跃期内的5例中强震进行了时-空扫描研究.通过考察删除余震的影响,提取了MS5.0以上地震与地震矩加速释放相关的特征时、空尺度,并作为时-空扫描的模型参数.采用震前5个月逐月扫描的方式,得到了震前m值随时间变化的图像.结果显示,其中4例在未来的震中附近出现稳定和集中分布的地震矩释放加速区.这表明东北地区中强震前的地震矩加速释放现象具有一定的普遍性,矩释放加速扫描方法对判断未来可能的中强震破裂成核点有一定的指导意义.采用相同的计算参数设置,还考察了震前破裂成核点的Benioff应变释放情况.结果显示,有3例在破裂成核点的地震矩加速释放现象明显.这表明,对于东北地区的中强地震,利用矩释放程度时-空扫描寻找未来中强震的破裂成核点,尚需其它方法作为辅助.
To investigate whether the accelerating moment release (AMR) appeared before strong and intermediate-strength earthquakes,related to earthquake preparation process,or not,this study carried out a spatio-temporal scanning over the m value,denoting AMR level,derived from the seismic activity in the fifth active period of northeast China region. By referring other studies the spatio-temporal windows of m value scanning for searching AMR before MS≥5 earthquakes were determined. For the earthquake data during the 5 months before each MS≥5 earthquake a monthly spatial scanning was performed,and the temporal m variations before the MS≥5 earthquakes were obtained. The result indicates that AMR appeared before the 4 earthquakes out of the 5 studied cases. The same scanning were performed to search for precursory variation of Benioff strain release around the rupture nucleation point before the strong and intermediate-strength earthquakes. The result shows that accelerating Benioff strain release emerged before 3,out of 5,MS≥5 earthquakes studied.
To investigate whether the accelerating moment release (AMR) appeared before strong and intermediate-strength earthquakes,related to earthquake preparation process,or not,this study carried out a spatio-temporal scanning over the m value,denoting AMR level,derived from the seismic activity in the fifth active period of northeast China region. By referring other studies the spatio-temporal windows of m value scanning for searching AMR before MS≥5 earthquakes were determined. For the earthquake data during the 5 months before each MS≥5 earthquake a monthly spatial scanning was performed,and the temporal m variations before the MS≥5 earthquakes were obtained. The result indicates that AMR appeared before the 4 earthquakes out of the 5 studied cases. The same scanning were performed to search for precursory variation of Benioff strain release around the rupture nucleation point before the strong and intermediate-strength earthquakes. The result shows that accelerating Benioff strain release emerged before 3,out of 5,MS≥5 earthquakes studied.
引文
邓起东,张培震,冉勇康,杨晓平,闵伟,陈立春.2003.中国活动构造与地震活动[J].地学前缘,10(S1):66-73.
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李志安,闰义.2000.中国东北造山带-盆地系统动力学研究[J].大地构造与成矿学,24(1):31-37.
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张凤君.2007.东北地震区地震趋势的小波分析[J].地震研究,30(2):137-141.
张兴洲,杨宝俊,吴福元,刘国兴.2006.中国兴蒙—吉黑地区岩石圈结构基本特征[J].中国地质,33(4):816-823.
左兆荣,张国民,吴建平.1996.1976年云南龙陵7.4级地震序列分析[J].地球物理学报,39(5):653-659.
Bowman D D,Ouillon G,Sammis C G,Sornette A,Sornette D.1998.An observational test of the critical earthquakeconcept[J].J Geophys Res,103(10):24359-24372.
Brehm DJ,Braile L W.1998.Intermediate-termearthquake prediction using precursory events in the New Madrid seis-mic zone[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,88(2):564-580.
Bufe C G,Varnes DJ.1993.Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the Greater San Francisco Bay Region[J].J Geo-phys Res,98(B6):9871-9883.
Carpenter S R,Brock W A.2006.Rising variance:Aleadingindicator of ecological transition[J].Ecol Lett,9(3):308-315.
Field E D(eds).2007.Regional earthquake likelihood models[J].SeismRes Lett,78(1):1-140.
Gardner J K,Knopoff L.1974.Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California with aftershocks removed,Poisso-nian-[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,64(5):1363-1367.
Gomberg J,Reasenberg P A,Bodin P,Harris R A.2001.Earthquake triggering by seismic waves followingthe Landersand Hector Mine earthquakes[J].Nature,411:462-466.
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1956.Magnitude and energy of earthquake[J].Annali di Geofisica,9(1):1-15.
Huang J L,Zhao D P.2006.High-resolution mantle tomography of China and surrounding regions[J].J Geophys Res,111,B09305,doi:10.1029/2005JB004066.
Ives A R.1995.Measuring resilience in stochastic systems[J].Ecol Monogr,65(2):217-233.
Jaum S C,Sykes L R.1999.Evolving towards a critical point:Areviewof accelerating seismic moment/energy releaseprior to large and great earthquake[J].Pure Appl Geophys,155(2-4):279-306.
Jiang C S,Wu Z L.2006.Pre-shock seismic moment releasein different segments of an earthquake fault:The case of the26December2004IndonesiaMW9.0earthquake[C]∥Chen Y Ted.Advance in Geosciences,1:17-25.
Kanamori H.1977.The energy release in Great earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,82(B20):2981-2987.
Knopoff L,Levshina T,Keilis-Borok VI,Mattoni C.1996.Increasedlong-rangeintermediate-magnitude earthquake ac-tivity prior to strong earthquakes in California[J].J Geophys Res,101(B3):5779-5796.
Main I G,Al-Kindy F H.2002.Entropy,energy,and proxi mity to criticalityin global earthquake populations[J].Geo-phys Res Lett,29(7),doi:10.1029/2001GL014078.
Nalbant S S,Hubert A,King G C P.1998.Stress coupling between earthquakesin north west Turkey andthe north Ae-gean Sea[J].J Geophys Res,103(B10):24469-24486.
Robinson R.2000.Atest of the precursory accelerating moment release model on some recent New Zealand earthquakes[J].Geophys J Int,140(B3):568-576.
Scheffer M,Bascompte J,Brock WA,Brovkin V,Carpenter S R,Dakos V,Held H,van Nes E H,Rietkerk M,Sugi-hara G.2009.Early-warning signals for critical transitions[J].Nature,461:53-59,doi:10.1038/nature08227.
Shebalin P,Zaliapin I,Keilis-Borok V.2000.Premonitory raise of the earthquakes’correlation range:Lesser Antilles[J].Phys Earth Planet Interi,122(3-4):241-249.
Sornette D,Sammis C G.1995.Critical exponents from renomalization group theory of earthquakes:I mplications forearthquake prediction[J].J Phys I,5(5):607-619.
Varnes DJ.1989.Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity[J].Pure Appl Geophys,130(4):661-686.
Wang J,He X S,Li Y Q.2006.Seismic characteristics of strong deep focal earthquakes and associated phenomena inNortheastern Asia[C]∥Anil Bhardwaj,Chen Y Teds.Advances in Geosciences,9:23-39.
Wang Y C,Yin C,Mora P,Yin X C,Peng K Y.2004.Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the acceleratingmoment release(AMR)model using Australian earthquake data[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161(11-12):2281-2293.
Wissel C.1984.Auniversal lawof the characteristic return ti me near thresholds[J].Oecologia,65(1):101-107.
Zller G,Hainzl S,Kurths J.2001.Observation of growing correlation length as anindicator for critical point behaviorprior to large earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,106(2):2167-2175.
高金哲,倪四道,包丰,崇加军.2010.2006年3月31日乾安—前郭M5.0级地震深度研究及其油气田开采关系探讨[J].地球物理学报
高立新.2008.中国松辽盆地构造环境及东北地区地震活动特征分析[J].地震,28(4):59-67.
蒋长胜,吴忠良.2009.强震前的“加速矩释放”(AMR)现象:对一个有争议的地震前兆的回溯性震例研究[J].地球物理学报,52(3):691-702.
李志安,闰义.2000.中国东北造山带-盆地系统动力学研究[J].大地构造与成矿学,24(1):31-37.
孙文福,张颖,张国生.2007.东北第五地震活跃期结束时间及最大地震强度预测[J].东北地震研究,23(1):16-26.
杨宝俊,刘财,刘万崧,王喜臣,刘国兴,刘洋,胡艳飞.2006.中国东北地区岩石圈结构的地震学特征与对矿产资源的动力控制作用[J].中国地质,33(4):866-873.
杨文政,Vere-Jones D,马丽,刘杰.2000.一个关于临界地震的临界区域判别的方法[J].地震,20(4):28-37
杨文政,马丽.1999.地震活动加速模型及其在中国的应用[J].地震学报,21(1):32-41.
张凤君.2007.东北地震区地震趋势的小波分析[J].地震研究,30(2):137-141.
张兴洲,杨宝俊,吴福元,刘国兴.2006.中国兴蒙—吉黑地区岩石圈结构基本特征[J].中国地质,33(4):816-823.
左兆荣,张国民,吴建平.1996.1976年云南龙陵7.4级地震序列分析[J].地球物理学报,39(5):653-659.
Bowman D D,Ouillon G,Sammis C G,Sornette A,Sornette D.1998.An observational test of the critical earthquakeconcept[J].J Geophys Res,103(10):24359-24372.
Brehm DJ,Braile L W.1998.Intermediate-termearthquake prediction using precursory events in the New Madrid seis-mic zone[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,88(2):564-580.
Bufe C G,Varnes DJ.1993.Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the Greater San Francisco Bay Region[J].J Geo-phys Res,98(B6):9871-9883.
Carpenter S R,Brock W A.2006.Rising variance:Aleadingindicator of ecological transition[J].Ecol Lett,9(3):308-315.
Field E D(eds).2007.Regional earthquake likelihood models[J].SeismRes Lett,78(1):1-140.
Gardner J K,Knopoff L.1974.Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California with aftershocks removed,Poisso-nian-[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,64(5):1363-1367.
Gomberg J,Reasenberg P A,Bodin P,Harris R A.2001.Earthquake triggering by seismic waves followingthe Landersand Hector Mine earthquakes[J].Nature,411:462-466.
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1956.Magnitude and energy of earthquake[J].Annali di Geofisica,9(1):1-15.
Huang J L,Zhao D P.2006.High-resolution mantle tomography of China and surrounding regions[J].J Geophys Res,111,B09305,doi:10.1029/2005JB004066.
Ives A R.1995.Measuring resilience in stochastic systems[J].Ecol Monogr,65(2):217-233.
Jaum S C,Sykes L R.1999.Evolving towards a critical point:Areviewof accelerating seismic moment/energy releaseprior to large and great earthquake[J].Pure Appl Geophys,155(2-4):279-306.
Jiang C S,Wu Z L.2006.Pre-shock seismic moment releasein different segments of an earthquake fault:The case of the26December2004IndonesiaMW9.0earthquake[C]∥Chen Y Ted.Advance in Geosciences,1:17-25.
Kanamori H.1977.The energy release in Great earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,82(B20):2981-2987.
Knopoff L,Levshina T,Keilis-Borok VI,Mattoni C.1996.Increasedlong-rangeintermediate-magnitude earthquake ac-tivity prior to strong earthquakes in California[J].J Geophys Res,101(B3):5779-5796.
Main I G,Al-Kindy F H.2002.Entropy,energy,and proxi mity to criticalityin global earthquake populations[J].Geo-phys Res Lett,29(7),doi:10.1029/2001GL014078.
Nalbant S S,Hubert A,King G C P.1998.Stress coupling between earthquakesin north west Turkey andthe north Ae-gean Sea[J].J Geophys Res,103(B10):24469-24486.
Robinson R.2000.Atest of the precursory accelerating moment release model on some recent New Zealand earthquakes[J].Geophys J Int,140(B3):568-576.
Scheffer M,Bascompte J,Brock WA,Brovkin V,Carpenter S R,Dakos V,Held H,van Nes E H,Rietkerk M,Sugi-hara G.2009.Early-warning signals for critical transitions[J].Nature,461:53-59,doi:10.1038/nature08227.
Shebalin P,Zaliapin I,Keilis-Borok V.2000.Premonitory raise of the earthquakes’correlation range:Lesser Antilles[J].Phys Earth Planet Interi,122(3-4):241-249.
Sornette D,Sammis C G.1995.Critical exponents from renomalization group theory of earthquakes:I mplications forearthquake prediction[J].J Phys I,5(5):607-619.
Varnes DJ.1989.Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity[J].Pure Appl Geophys,130(4):661-686.
Wang J,He X S,Li Y Q.2006.Seismic characteristics of strong deep focal earthquakes and associated phenomena inNortheastern Asia[C]∥Anil Bhardwaj,Chen Y Teds.Advances in Geosciences,9:23-39.
Wang Y C,Yin C,Mora P,Yin X C,Peng K Y.2004.Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the acceleratingmoment release(AMR)model using Australian earthquake data[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161(11-12):2281-2293.
Wissel C.1984.Auniversal lawof the characteristic return ti me near thresholds[J].Oecologia,65(1):101-107.
Zller G,Hainzl S,Kurths J.2001.Observation of growing correlation length as anindicator for critical point behaviorprior to large earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,106(2):2167-2175.
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