龙门山断裂带中北段大震复发特征与复发间隔估计
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摘要
汶川MS8.0地震发生在青藏高原东缘著名的龙门山断裂带上,造成了从映秀、北川至南坝长约240km的同震地表破裂带.然而目前关于龙门山断裂带的大震复发特征研究较少.通过地震地质科学考察和断层断错地貌的差分GPS测量,发现第一级河流阶地、河床和河漫滩上的垂直断距大致相当,均代表汶川地震的位错,而第二级河流阶地上的累计位移大致是最新地震垂直位移的2倍.利用断错地貌、地震矩率和滑动速率3种方法,分别估算了龙门山断裂带大地震的复发间隔.结果表明:龙门山断裂带中北段可能发生与汶川大地震相当的地震,大震复发符合特征地震模型;大震复发间隔为3000—6000a.该结果可为龙门山断裂带的大震预测和地震危险性评价等研究提供重要的定量数据.
The 2008 MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake ruptured the Longmenshan fault zone on the eastern margin of Tibetan plateau for 240 km long from Ying-xiu town to Beichuan county, then to Nanba town. The recurrence characteristic of such a large earthquake on the Longmenshan fault zone has been poorly studied. This study is based on field investigations and differential GPS measurements of offset landforms. It is found that the vertical offsets of river bed, river floodplain T0 and terrace T1 are equal to the coseismic slip of the Wenchuan earthquake, while the vertical offsets of terrace T2 approximately double the coseismic vertical slip. The recurrence interval has been estimated by three methods: offset landforms, earthquake moment rate and fault slip rate. Preliminary result indicates that characteristic earthquakes rupturing the middle-northern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone may have similar magnitude to the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake. The Longmenshan fault zone may behave as the characteristic earthquake model with a recurrence interval of 3000—6000 a. This work provides the basic data for large earthquake prediction and earthquake hazard assessment in the Longmenshan region.
The 2008 MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake ruptured the Longmenshan fault zone on the eastern margin of Tibetan plateau for 240 km long from Ying-xiu town to Beichuan county, then to Nanba town. The recurrence characteristic of such a large earthquake on the Longmenshan fault zone has been poorly studied. This study is based on field investigations and differential GPS measurements of offset landforms. It is found that the vertical offsets of river bed, river floodplain T0 and terrace T1 are equal to the coseismic slip of the Wenchuan earthquake, while the vertical offsets of terrace T2 approximately double the coseismic vertical slip. The recurrence interval has been estimated by three methods: offset landforms, earthquake moment rate and fault slip rate. Preliminary result indicates that characteristic earthquakes rupturing the middle-northern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone may have similar magnitude to the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake. The Longmenshan fault zone may behave as the characteristic earthquake model with a recurrence interval of 3000—6000 a. This work provides the basic data for large earthquake prediction and earthquake hazard assessment in the Longmenshan region.
引文
①郑勇.2008.[2008-10-12]http:∥www.cea-igp.ac.cn/共享资源/中国大陆5级以上部分地震震源机制解.ht m
陈运泰.2008.汶川特大地震的震级和断层长度[J].科技导报,26(10):26-27.
邓起东,陈社发,赵小麟.1994.龙门山及其邻区的构造和地震活动及动力学[J].地震地质,16(4):389-403.
国家地震局震害防御司.1995.中国历史强震目录[M].北京:地震出版社:1-514.
何宏林,孙昭民,王世元,王纪强,董绍鹏.2008.汶川MS8.0地震地表破裂带[J].地震地质,30(2):359-362.
黄媛,吴建平,张天中,张东宁.2008.汶川8.0级大地震及其余震序列重定位研究[J].中国科学(D辑),38(10):1242-1249.
李勇,周荣军,董顺利,张毅,何玉林,陈浩,闫亮,乔宝成,马博琳.2008.汶川地震的地表破裂与逆冲—走滑作用[J].成都理工大学学报(自然科学版),35(4):404-413.
李勇,周荣军,Densemore L,Michael A.2006.青藏高原东缘大陆动力学与地质响应[M].北京:地质出版社:69-85.
楼海,王椿镛,吕智勇,姚志祥,戴仕贵,尤惠川.2008.2008年汶川MS8.0级地震的深部构造环境:远震P波接收函数和布格重力异常的联合解释[J].中国科学(D辑),38(10):1207-1220.
罗志立,赵锡奎,刘树根,宋鸿彪,金以钟.1994.龙门山造山带的崛起和四川盆地的形成与演化[M].成都:成都科技大学出版社:131-378.
马保起,苏刚,侯治华,舒赛兵.2005.利用岷江阶地的变形估算龙门山断裂带中段晚第四纪滑动速率[J].地震地质,27(2):234-242.
马保起,张世民,田勤俭,谢富仁.2008.汶川8.0级地震地表破裂带[J].第四纪研究,28(4):513-517.
冉勇康,陈立春,陈桂华,尹金辉,陈杰,宫会玲,史翔,李陈侠.2008.汶川MS8.0地震发震断裂大地震原地重复现象初析[J].地震地质,30(3):630-643.
任俊杰,张世民.2008.汶川8级地震地表破裂带特征及其构造意义[J].大地测量与地球动力学,28(6):47-52.
滕吉文,白登海,杨辉,闫雅芬,张洪双,张永谦,阮小敏.2008.2008汶川Ms8.0地震发生的深层过程和动力学响应[J].地球物理学报,51(5):1385-1402.
王辉,张国民,江在森.2005.利用多种地震学参数研究中国大陆地壳应变场[J].地震,25(2):9-18.
王卫民,赵连锋,李娟,姚振兴.2008.四川汶川8.0级地震震源过程[J].地球物理学报,51(5):1403-1410.
闻学泽.1991.活断层的定量研究与长期地震潜势的概率估计问题[G]∥活动构造研究(1).北京:地震出版社:174-183.
徐锡伟,闻学泽,叶建青,马保起,陈杰,周荣军,何宏林,田勤俭,何玉林,王志才,孙昭民,冯希杰,于贵华,陈立春,陈桂华,于慎鄂,冉勇康,李细光,李陈侠,安艳芬.2008.汶川MS8.0地震地表破裂带及其发震构造[J].地震地质,30(3):597-629.
杨树新,陈连旺,谢富仁.2003.中国大陆现今构造应力场的回归分析研究[J].岩土力学,24(增刊2):357-360.
张勇,冯万鹏,许力生,周成虎,陈运泰.2008.2008年汶川大地震的时空破裂过程[J].中国科学(D辑),38(10):1186-1194.
张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽,冉勇康.2008.2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发间隔和构造成因[J].地球物理学报,51(4):1066-1073.
张培震.2008.青藏高原东缘川西地区的现今构造变形、应变分配和深部动力学过程[J].中国科学(D辑),38(9):1041-1056.
张瑞青,吴庆举,李永华,丁志峰,曾融生.2008.汶川中强余震震源深度的确定及其意义[J].中国科学(D辑),38(10):1234-1241.
赵珠,范军,郑斯华,长谷川昭,堀内茂木.1997.龙门山断裂带地壳速度结果和震源位置的精确修订[J].地震学报,19(6):615-622.
郑文俊,李传友,王伟涛,尹金辉,魏占玉.2008.汶川8.0级地震陡坎(北川以北段)探槽的记录特征[J].地震地质,30(3):697-709.
中国地震局震害防御司.1999.中国近代地震目录[M].北京:地震出版社:1-637
2007Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities(2007WGCEP).2008.The uniform california earthquakerupture forecast,Version2(UCERF2)[R].U S Geological Survey Open-File Report2007-1437and CaliforniaGeological Survey Special Report203.
Brune J N.1968.Seismic moment,seismicity,and rate of slip along major fault zone[J].J Geophys Res,73:777-784.
Burchfiel B C,Chen Z,Liu Y,Royden L H.1995.Tectonics of the Longmen Shan and adjacent regions,central China[J].Int Geol Rev,37(8):661-735.
Burchfiel B C,Royden L H,van der Hilst R D,Hager B H,Chen Z,King R W,Li CJ,Yao H,Kirby E.2008.Ageo-logical and geophysical context for the Wenchuan earthquake of12May2008,Sichuan,People’s Republic of China[J].GSA Today,18(7):4-11.
Densmore A L,Ellis M A,Li Y,Zhou R J,Hancock G S,Richardson N.2007.Active tectonics of the Beichuan andPengguan faults at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Tectonics,TC4005,doi:10.1029/2006TC001987.
Kanamori H.1977.The energy release in great earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,82:2981-2987.
McCalpin J P.1996.Paleoseismology[M].London:Academic Press:183-222.
Meng G,Ren J,Wang M,Gan W,Wang Q,Qiao X,Yang Y.2008.Crustal deformationin western Sichuan region andi mplications for12May2008MS8.0earthquake[J].Geochem Geophys Geosyst,9(11),doi:10.1029/2008GC002144.
Molnar P.1979.Earthquake recurrence intervals and plate tectonics[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,69(1):115-133.
Nemcok M,Schamel S,Gayer R.2005.Thrustbelts-Structural Architecture,Thermal Regi mes and Petroleum Systems[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press:1-148
Parsons T,Ji C,Kirby E.2008.Stress changes fromthe2008Wenchuan earthquake andincreased hazardinthe Sichuanbasin[J].Nature,454(7203):509-510.
Schwartz D P,Coppersmith KJ.1984.Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes:Example fromthe wasatch and SanAndreas fault zones[J].J Geophys Res,89,5681-5698.
Shi mazaki K,Nakata T.1980.Ti me-predictable recurrence model for large earthquake[J].Geophys Res Lett,7(4):279-282.
Toda S,Lin J,Meghraoui M,Stein R S.2008.12May2008M=7.9Wenchuan,China,earthquake calculated to in-crease failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems[J].Geophys Res Lett,35(L17305):10.1029/2008GL034903.
Xu Z Q,Ji S C,Li HB,Hou L W,Fu X F.2008.Uplift of the Longmen Shan range andthe Wenchuan earthquake[J].Episodes,31(3):291-301.
Zhou RJ,Li Y,Densmore A L,Ellis M A,He Y L,Li Y Z,Li X G.2007.Active tectonics of the Longmen Shan re-gion on the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Acta Geol Sin-Engl,81:593-604.
陈运泰.2008.汶川特大地震的震级和断层长度[J].科技导报,26(10):26-27.
邓起东,陈社发,赵小麟.1994.龙门山及其邻区的构造和地震活动及动力学[J].地震地质,16(4):389-403.
国家地震局震害防御司.1995.中国历史强震目录[M].北京:地震出版社:1-514.
何宏林,孙昭民,王世元,王纪强,董绍鹏.2008.汶川MS8.0地震地表破裂带[J].地震地质,30(2):359-362.
黄媛,吴建平,张天中,张东宁.2008.汶川8.0级大地震及其余震序列重定位研究[J].中国科学(D辑),38(10):1242-1249.
李勇,周荣军,董顺利,张毅,何玉林,陈浩,闫亮,乔宝成,马博琳.2008.汶川地震的地表破裂与逆冲—走滑作用[J].成都理工大学学报(自然科学版),35(4):404-413.
李勇,周荣军,Densemore L,Michael A.2006.青藏高原东缘大陆动力学与地质响应[M].北京:地质出版社:69-85.
楼海,王椿镛,吕智勇,姚志祥,戴仕贵,尤惠川.2008.2008年汶川MS8.0级地震的深部构造环境:远震P波接收函数和布格重力异常的联合解释[J].中国科学(D辑),38(10):1207-1220.
罗志立,赵锡奎,刘树根,宋鸿彪,金以钟.1994.龙门山造山带的崛起和四川盆地的形成与演化[M].成都:成都科技大学出版社:131-378.
马保起,苏刚,侯治华,舒赛兵.2005.利用岷江阶地的变形估算龙门山断裂带中段晚第四纪滑动速率[J].地震地质,27(2):234-242.
马保起,张世民,田勤俭,谢富仁.2008.汶川8.0级地震地表破裂带[J].第四纪研究,28(4):513-517.
冉勇康,陈立春,陈桂华,尹金辉,陈杰,宫会玲,史翔,李陈侠.2008.汶川MS8.0地震发震断裂大地震原地重复现象初析[J].地震地质,30(3):630-643.
任俊杰,张世民.2008.汶川8级地震地表破裂带特征及其构造意义[J].大地测量与地球动力学,28(6):47-52.
滕吉文,白登海,杨辉,闫雅芬,张洪双,张永谦,阮小敏.2008.2008汶川Ms8.0地震发生的深层过程和动力学响应[J].地球物理学报,51(5):1385-1402.
王辉,张国民,江在森.2005.利用多种地震学参数研究中国大陆地壳应变场[J].地震,25(2):9-18.
王卫民,赵连锋,李娟,姚振兴.2008.四川汶川8.0级地震震源过程[J].地球物理学报,51(5):1403-1410.
闻学泽.1991.活断层的定量研究与长期地震潜势的概率估计问题[G]∥活动构造研究(1).北京:地震出版社:174-183.
徐锡伟,闻学泽,叶建青,马保起,陈杰,周荣军,何宏林,田勤俭,何玉林,王志才,孙昭民,冯希杰,于贵华,陈立春,陈桂华,于慎鄂,冉勇康,李细光,李陈侠,安艳芬.2008.汶川MS8.0地震地表破裂带及其发震构造[J].地震地质,30(3):597-629.
杨树新,陈连旺,谢富仁.2003.中国大陆现今构造应力场的回归分析研究[J].岩土力学,24(增刊2):357-360.
张勇,冯万鹏,许力生,周成虎,陈运泰.2008.2008年汶川大地震的时空破裂过程[J].中国科学(D辑),38(10):1186-1194.
张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽,冉勇康.2008.2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发间隔和构造成因[J].地球物理学报,51(4):1066-1073.
张培震.2008.青藏高原东缘川西地区的现今构造变形、应变分配和深部动力学过程[J].中国科学(D辑),38(9):1041-1056.
张瑞青,吴庆举,李永华,丁志峰,曾融生.2008.汶川中强余震震源深度的确定及其意义[J].中国科学(D辑),38(10):1234-1241.
赵珠,范军,郑斯华,长谷川昭,堀内茂木.1997.龙门山断裂带地壳速度结果和震源位置的精确修订[J].地震学报,19(6):615-622.
郑文俊,李传友,王伟涛,尹金辉,魏占玉.2008.汶川8.0级地震陡坎(北川以北段)探槽的记录特征[J].地震地质,30(3):697-709.
中国地震局震害防御司.1999.中国近代地震目录[M].北京:地震出版社:1-637
2007Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities(2007WGCEP).2008.The uniform california earthquakerupture forecast,Version2(UCERF2)[R].U S Geological Survey Open-File Report2007-1437and CaliforniaGeological Survey Special Report203.
Brune J N.1968.Seismic moment,seismicity,and rate of slip along major fault zone[J].J Geophys Res,73:777-784.
Burchfiel B C,Chen Z,Liu Y,Royden L H.1995.Tectonics of the Longmen Shan and adjacent regions,central China[J].Int Geol Rev,37(8):661-735.
Burchfiel B C,Royden L H,van der Hilst R D,Hager B H,Chen Z,King R W,Li CJ,Yao H,Kirby E.2008.Ageo-logical and geophysical context for the Wenchuan earthquake of12May2008,Sichuan,People’s Republic of China[J].GSA Today,18(7):4-11.
Densmore A L,Ellis M A,Li Y,Zhou R J,Hancock G S,Richardson N.2007.Active tectonics of the Beichuan andPengguan faults at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Tectonics,TC4005,doi:10.1029/2006TC001987.
Kanamori H.1977.The energy release in great earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,82:2981-2987.
McCalpin J P.1996.Paleoseismology[M].London:Academic Press:183-222.
Meng G,Ren J,Wang M,Gan W,Wang Q,Qiao X,Yang Y.2008.Crustal deformationin western Sichuan region andi mplications for12May2008MS8.0earthquake[J].Geochem Geophys Geosyst,9(11),doi:10.1029/2008GC002144.
Molnar P.1979.Earthquake recurrence intervals and plate tectonics[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,69(1):115-133.
Nemcok M,Schamel S,Gayer R.2005.Thrustbelts-Structural Architecture,Thermal Regi mes and Petroleum Systems[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press:1-148
Parsons T,Ji C,Kirby E.2008.Stress changes fromthe2008Wenchuan earthquake andincreased hazardinthe Sichuanbasin[J].Nature,454(7203):509-510.
Schwartz D P,Coppersmith KJ.1984.Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes:Example fromthe wasatch and SanAndreas fault zones[J].J Geophys Res,89,5681-5698.
Shi mazaki K,Nakata T.1980.Ti me-predictable recurrence model for large earthquake[J].Geophys Res Lett,7(4):279-282.
Toda S,Lin J,Meghraoui M,Stein R S.2008.12May2008M=7.9Wenchuan,China,earthquake calculated to in-crease failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems[J].Geophys Res Lett,35(L17305):10.1029/2008GL034903.
Xu Z Q,Ji S C,Li HB,Hou L W,Fu X F.2008.Uplift of the Longmen Shan range andthe Wenchuan earthquake[J].Episodes,31(3):291-301.
Zhou RJ,Li Y,Densmore A L,Ellis M A,He Y L,Li Y Z,Li X G.2007.Active tectonics of the Longmen Shan re-gion on the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Acta Geol Sin-Engl,81:593-604.
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