基于临汾2次强震史料与GIS技术对未来强震灾害预测评估
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摘要
通过对临汾2次历史强震史料的研究,总结出其震害分布特征,对比各类衰减模型绘制的等震线图,确定了对该地区不同震级地震最适用的衰减关系模型和修正值;应用GIS技术的空间分析功能,实现了临汾地区更为直观的震害预测评估系统。再将临汾2次历史强震损失重建,从而预测出临汾地区现有经济社会情况下的地震灾害的损失情况,为其未来防震减灾实际工作提供了可靠的依据。
Through studies on the historical data of the two historical strong earthquakes in Linfen region,the characteristics of earthquake disaster distribution are summarized,and the actual isoseismal are drawn.By comparison of theoretic isoseismal maps obtained from different attenuation relationship models,the most suitable model and its modification part for different magnitudes in this region are determined.Using the spatial analysis function of GIS techniques,the more visual system of earthquake disaster prediction and evaluation is realized.In addition,the loss situation of earthquake damage in Linfen region under the present economic society is predicted based on the reconstruction data of the two historical strong earthquakes.This work provides reliable basis for practical work of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in the future.
Through studies on the historical data of the two historical strong earthquakes in Linfen region,the characteristics of earthquake disaster distribution are summarized,and the actual isoseismal are drawn.By comparison of theoretic isoseismal maps obtained from different attenuation relationship models,the most suitable model and its modification part for different magnitudes in this region are determined.Using the spatial analysis function of GIS techniques,the more visual system of earthquake disaster prediction and evaluation is realized.In addition,the loss situation of earthquake damage in Linfen region under the present economic society is predicted based on the reconstruction data of the two historical strong earthquakes.This work provides reliable basis for practical work of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in the future.
引文
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李小军.2006.工程场地地震安全性评价工作及相关技术问题[J].震灾防御技术,1(1):15—24.LI Xiao-jun.2006.Evaluation of seismic safety for engineering sites and relevant technical problems[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,1(1):15—24(in Chinese).
任雪梅,高孟潭,王银,等.2006.北京历史地震GIS技术平台的建立[J].震灾防御技术,1(2):163—168.REN Xue-mei,GAO Meng-tan,WANG Yin,et al.2006.The establishment of a GIS based platform on historical earth-quakes in Beijing[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,1(2):163—168(in Chinese).
宋惠珍,兰印刚,徐鹏飞,等.1995.1303年洪洞8级地震震源过程研究[J].地震地质17(1):13—24.SONG Hui-zhen,LAN Yin-gang,XU Peng-fei,et al.1995.Analysis of Hongdong1303M8earthquake processes[J].Seismology and Geology,17(1):13—24(in Chinese).
孙柏涛,胡少卿.2005.基于已有震害矩阵模拟的群体震害预测方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,25(6):102—108.SUN Bai-tao,HU Shao-qing.2005.A method for earthquake damage prediction of building group based on existing earthquake damage matrix[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,25(6):102—108(in Chi-nese).
王继,徐扬,李自红,等.2002.利用GIS进行山西地区的震害快速预测[J].地震地磁观测与研究,23(3):65—70.WANG Ji,XU Yang,LI Zi-hong,et al.2002.Rapid evaluation for the loss of earthquake disaster in Shanxi Province by using GIS[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,23(3):65—70(in Chinese).
王健,吴宣,张晓东,等.2004.1303年山西洪洞8级地震高烈度区内地震活动特征及其物理意义[J].地震学报,26(4):347—354.WANG Jian,WU Xuan,ZHANG Xiao-dong,et al.2004.Seismic characteristics near the epicenter of the1303Hong-dong M8earthquake,Shanxi Province and its implication[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(4):347—354(in Chinese).
王景来,宋志峰.2001.地震灾害快速评估模型[J].地震研究,24(2):162—167.WANG Jing-lai,SONG Zhi-feng.2001.Model for fast seismic disaster assessment[J].Journal of Seismological Re-search,24(2):162—167(in Chinese).
王晓青,丁香.2004.基于GIS的地震现场灾害损失评估系统[J].自然灾害学报,13(1):118—125.WANG Xiao-qing,DING Xiang.2004.Estimation system of disastrous losses in seismic site based on GIS[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,13(1):118—125(in Chinese).
王泽皋.1985.大震区的“长期活动”[J].地震学报,7(3):254—266.WANG Ze-gao.1985.The“long-term activity”of large seismic regions[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,7(3):254—266(in Chinese).
徐爱信.2007.历史地震档案资料在防震减灾中的应用[J].国际地震动态,2:43—46.XU Ai-xin.2007.Application of historical earthquake archives in earthquake prevention and disaster mitigation[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2:43—46(in Chinese).
尹之潜,李树桢,杨淑文,等.1990.震害与地震损失的估计方法[J].地震工程与工程振动,10(1):99—108.YIN Zhi-qian,LI Shu-zhen,YANG Shu-wen,et al.1990.Estimating method of seismic damage and seismic loss[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,10(1):99—108(in Chinese).
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