引入一种新型震害快速评估基础数据的尝试——DMSP/OLS卫星夜光数据的使用
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摘要
本文尝试性使用美国军事气象DMSP卫星20年来的夜光数据,并利用前人在夜光数据与中国人口统计分布的关系模型以及基于人员死亡率表示的地震生命易损性模型,分析国内外1990年来有影响的4次7级以上强地震的人员死亡情况.通过对正式公布的烈度图矢量化与通过DMSP/OLS夜光数据换算出的人口密度分布的空间相互覆盖情况,计算得出4次强地震理论计算的结果和实际人员死亡统计结果在一个数量级的误差范围内具有可信度。其中土耳其IZMIT市地震、中国台湾集集地震的计算结果比较吻合,而汶川地震与海地地震理论计算的结果比实际的偏小,这可能与汶川地震高烈度区地震地质灾害异常严重以及海地太子港地区缺乏抗震设防,房屋抗震性能薄弱有关。
In order to analyze the feasibility of fast evaluation of the death induced by 4 M>7.0 global earthquakes from 1990 with DMSP/OLS data,in this paper the author makes best use of the three kinds of data resources,which are the night-time light data of latest twenty years from American DMSP/OLS,the model corresponding with the relation between night-time light strength and Chinese statistical spatial distribution of population,and the death rate model of strong earthquake based on population density.Through vectoring the official reported intensity map and population density transferred from the DMSP/OLS data and their spatial interaction area,the death of 4 earthquakes mentioned above are calculated and they are consisted with the factual statistical result.Concretely,the evaluations of Turkey IZMIT and Taiwan Jiji earthquakes have few gaps opposite to the reality.The calculation of Wenchuan and Haiti are lower than the factual statistics,and the contradictions maybe due to the heavily seismic geological hazard in Wenchuan district and lack of protecting against and mitigating earthquake disasters in Haiti district respectively.
In order to analyze the feasibility of fast evaluation of the death induced by 4 M>7.0 global earthquakes from 1990 with DMSP/OLS data,in this paper the author makes best use of the three kinds of data resources,which are the night-time light data of latest twenty years from American DMSP/OLS,the model corresponding with the relation between night-time light strength and Chinese statistical spatial distribution of population,and the death rate model of strong earthquake based on population density.Through vectoring the official reported intensity map and population density transferred from the DMSP/OLS data and their spatial interaction area,the death of 4 earthquakes mentioned above are calculated and they are consisted with the factual statistical result.Concretely,the evaluations of Turkey IZMIT and Taiwan Jiji earthquakes have few gaps opposite to the reality.The calculation of Wenchuan and Haiti are lower than the factual statistics,and the contradictions maybe due to the heavily seismic geological hazard in Wenchuan district and lack of protecting against and mitigating earthquake disasters in Haiti district respectively.
引文
[1]刘双庆,赵国敏,姚兰予.震害评估系统中的宏观经济指标的网格化技术及实现[J].震灾防御技术,2011,6(1):59-68.
[2]卓莉,史培军,陈晋,等.20世纪90年代中国城市时空变化特征——基于灯光指数CNLI方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2003,58(6):893-903.
[3]卓莉,陈晋,史培军,等.基于夜间灯光数据的中国人口密度模拟[J].地理学报,2005,60(2):266-277.
[4]王晓青,丁香,王龙,等.四川汶川8级大地震灾害损失快速评估研究[J].地震学报,2009,31(2):205-211.
[5]Croft T.A.Nighttime images of the earth from space[J].Sci.Am.,1978,239:86-98.
[6]Sutton P.Modeling population density with nighttimesatellite imagery and GIS[J].Computers,Environmentand Urban System,1997,21(3-4):227-244.
[7]郝敏,谢礼立.921台湾集集地震的烈度等震线[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2007,39(2):169-173.
[8]张敏政.土耳其伊兹米特地震震害考察[J].工程抗震,2000,(4):34-38.
[9]张勇,许力生,陈运泰.2010年1月12日海地地震破裂过程快速反演[J].地震学报,2010,32(1):124-126.
[10]夏珊,刘爱文.抗震设防地区评定地震烈度的平均震害指数法[J].地震学报,2009,31(1):92-99.
[11]周雍年,张晓志.社会可接受的地震人员死亡率研究[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(4):35-40.
[12]《中国地震动参数区划图》宣贯教材[M]—GB18306-2001.北京:中国标准出版社,2001,2-3.
[2]卓莉,史培军,陈晋,等.20世纪90年代中国城市时空变化特征——基于灯光指数CNLI方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2003,58(6):893-903.
[3]卓莉,陈晋,史培军,等.基于夜间灯光数据的中国人口密度模拟[J].地理学报,2005,60(2):266-277.
[4]王晓青,丁香,王龙,等.四川汶川8级大地震灾害损失快速评估研究[J].地震学报,2009,31(2):205-211.
[5]Croft T.A.Nighttime images of the earth from space[J].Sci.Am.,1978,239:86-98.
[6]Sutton P.Modeling population density with nighttimesatellite imagery and GIS[J].Computers,Environmentand Urban System,1997,21(3-4):227-244.
[7]郝敏,谢礼立.921台湾集集地震的烈度等震线[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2007,39(2):169-173.
[8]张敏政.土耳其伊兹米特地震震害考察[J].工程抗震,2000,(4):34-38.
[9]张勇,许力生,陈运泰.2010年1月12日海地地震破裂过程快速反演[J].地震学报,2010,32(1):124-126.
[10]夏珊,刘爱文.抗震设防地区评定地震烈度的平均震害指数法[J].地震学报,2009,31(1):92-99.
[11]周雍年,张晓志.社会可接受的地震人员死亡率研究[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(4):35-40.
[12]《中国地震动参数区划图》宣贯教材[M]—GB18306-2001.北京:中国标准出版社,2001,2-3.
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