加卸载响应比与震前应力积累模式研究
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摘要
加卸载响应比是一种中短期地震预测方法.按照该方法,通常在大地震发生之前加卸载响应比时间序列会出现明显的异常高值.早先的研究发现,震前临界区域的选择对加卸载响应比的计算有很大影响.我们发展了一种使用震前应力积累区域取代传统圆形区域计算加卸载响应比的算法,提高了加卸载响应比的地震预测能力,其震前库仑应力场分布采用地震断层位错模型将同震滑移量反向滑移的方法计算.美国南加州近20年来发生的4次M>6.5地震以及2008年中国汶川MS8.0地震的研究事实表明,使用库仑应力算法得到的加卸载响应比时间序列,前兆变化相对于圆形区域算法更为明显,且对目标地震的位置、震级预测更为明确.库仑应力算法的这一独特性质,使我们可以针对不同地区的活动构造特征对未来地震发生的地点和大小提供信息和约束.
The load/unload response ratio (LURR) is a short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction method. Using this method,the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. We replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area,within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. This new algorithm is devised to improve the predictive power of the LURR method. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four M>6.5 earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades and the 2008 MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake,show that the anomalies produced by the Coulomb stress algorithm look more prominent than the ones produced by the circular region algorithm. Moreover,The Coulomb stress algorithm seems to be more sensitive for detecting future earthquakes of particular magnitude range and location than the circular region algorithm. The unique feature of the Coulomb stress algorithm may provide information and constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events based on the regional tectonic activities.
The load/unload response ratio (LURR) is a short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction method. Using this method,the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. We replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area,within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. This new algorithm is devised to improve the predictive power of the LURR method. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four M>6.5 earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades and the 2008 MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake,show that the anomalies produced by the Coulomb stress algorithm look more prominent than the ones produced by the circular region algorithm. Moreover,The Coulomb stress algorithm seems to be more sensitive for detecting future earthquakes of particular magnitude range and location than the circular region algorithm. The unique feature of the Coulomb stress algorithm may provide information and constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events based on the regional tectonic activities.
引文
陈棋福,尹祥础,马丽.1996.加卸载响应比的自然概率分布[J].中国地震,12(3):270-273.
邓起东.2007.中国活动构造图(1∶400万)[M].北京:地震出版社:1-5.
李旭东.1995.倾斜固体潮的响应比研究[J].地壳形变与地震,15(3):67-73.
李佐唐.1997.门源6.4级地震前后加卸载响应比的异常变化[J].西北地震学报,18(4):47-50.
施行觉,陈学忠.1994.模拟引潮力作用下的岩石破裂特征:加卸载响应比理论的实验研究之一[J].地球物理学报,37(5):633-638.
王勤彩,杜锡武,马兴国,乔子云.1997.大同两次中强地震前应变、倾加卸载响应比异常研究[J].华北地震科学,15(3):67-72.
续春荣,林云芳,吕桂芳,赵明,李盛祥,勾宪彬,于敬忠,曾小苹.1998.地球磁场对太阳风的加卸载响应比与川滇中强地震[J].中国地震,14(2):190-196.
杨林章,何世海,郗钦文,李松阳,黎凯武.1994.用潮汐体应变加卸载响应比研究岩石弹性性质变化[J].中国地震,10(增刊):90-94.
曾小苹,续春荣,赵明,陈绍明,林云芳.1996.地球磁场对太阳风的加卸载响应与地震[J].地震地磁观测与研究,17(1):49-53.
张昭栋,王秀芹,董守德,1999.加卸载响应比在体应变固体潮中的应用[J].地震,19(3):217-222.
Anderson G,Johnson H.1999.A new statistical test for static stress triggering:Application to the1987SuperstitionHills earthquake sequence[J].J Geophys Res,104(B9):20153-20168.
Bowman D D,King G C P.2001.Accelerating seismicity and stress accumulation before large earthquakes[J].GeophysRes Lett,28(21):4039-4042.
Burridge R,Knopoff L.1967.Model and theoretical seismicity[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,57(3):341-371.
Cao T,Aki K.1984.Seismicity si mulation with a mass-spring model and a displacement hardening-softening friction law[J].Pure Appl Geophys,122(1):10-24.
Carlson J M,Langer J S.1984.Mechanical model of an earthquake fault[J].Phys Rev,A40(3):6470-6484.
Cochran E S,Vidale J E,Tanaka S.2004.Earthquake tides can trigger shallowthrust fault earthquakes[J].Science,306(5699):1164-1166.
Deng J,Sykes L R.1997.Evolution of stress fieldin southern California and triggering of moderate-size earthquakes:A200years prospective[J].J Geophs Res,102(B5):9859-9886.
Hardebeck J L,Hauksson E.2001.Crustal stress fieldin southern California anditsi mplications for fault mechanics[J].J Geophys Res,106(B10):21859-21882.
Hauksson E L,Jones M,Hutton K.2002.The1999MW7.1Hector Mine,California,earthquake sequence:Complexconjugate strike-slip faulting[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,92(4):1154-1170.
Hubert-Ferrari A,Barka A,Jacques E,Nalbant S,Meyer B,Armijo R,Tapponnier P,King G C P.2000.Seismic haz-ardin the Marmara Sea region following the17August1999Izmit earthquake[J].Nature,404(6775):269-273.
Hudnut K W,Bock Y,Cline M,Fang P,Freymueller J,Gross K,Jackson D,Larson S,Lisowski M,Shen Z,Svarc J.1994.Coseismic displacements in the Landers sequence[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,84(3):625-645.
Ji C,Hayes G.2008.Preli minary result of the May12,2008MW7.9eastern Sichuan,China earthquake[EB/OL].[2008-10-30].http:∥earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2008/us2008ryan/finite_fault.php.
King G C P,Cocco M.2001.Fault interaction by elastic stress changes:Newclues fromearthquake sequences[J].AdvGeophys,44:1-38.
Levin S Z,Sammis C G,Bowman D D.2006.An observational test of the stress accumulation model based on seismicitypreceding the1992Landers,CAearthquake[J].Tectonophysics,413(1-2):39-52.
Nalbant S S,Hubert-Ferrari A,King G C P.1998.Stress coupling between earthquakes in northwest turkey and thenorth Aegean Sea[J].J Geophys Res,103(B10):24469-24486.
Okada Y.1992.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,82(2):1018-1042.
Papadi mitriou E E,Sykes L R.2001.Evolution of the stress field in the northern Aegean Sea[J].Geophys J Int,146(3):747-759.
Reasenberg P A,Si mpson R W.1992.Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the LomaPrieta earthquake[J].Science,255(5052):1687-1690.
Sammis C G,Bowman D D,King G C P.2004.Anomalous seismicity and accelerating moment release precedingthe2001and2002earthquakes in northern Baja California,Mexico[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161(11/12):2369-2378.
Savage J C.1983.A dislocation model of strain accumulation and release at a subduction zone[J].J Geophys Res,88(B6):4948-4996.
Smith S W,Sammis C G.2004.Revisiting the tidal activation of seismicity with a damage mechanics andfriction point ofview[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161(11/12):2393-2404.
Stein R S,King G C P,Lin J.1992.Change in failure stress on the southern San Andreas fault systemcaused by the1992magnitude=7.4Landers earthquake[J].Science,258(5086):1328-1332.
Stein RS,King G C P,Lin J.1994.Stress triggering of the1994M=6.7Northridge,California,earthquake byits pre-decessors[J].Science,265(5177):1432-1435.
Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.1997.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since1939by earthquakestress triggering[J].Geophys J Int,128(3):594-604.
Stein R S.1999.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence[J].Nature,402(6762):605-609.
Tanaka S,Ohtake M,Sato H.2004.Tidal triggering of earthquakes in Japan related to the regional tectonic stress[J].Earth Planets Space,56(5):511-515.
Trotta J E,Tullis T E.2006.Anindependent assessment of theload/unload response ratio(LURR)proposed method ofearthquake prediction[J].Pure Appl Geophys,163(11/12):2375-2387.
Wald DJ,Heaton T H,Hudnut T W.1996.The slip history of the1994Northridge,California,earthquake determinedfromstrong ground motion,teleseismic,GPS,and leveling data[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,86(1B):49-70.
Wan Y G,Wu Z L,Zhou G W.2004.Focal mechanismdependence of static stress triggering of earthquakes[J].Tec-tonophysics,390(1-4):235-243.
Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P,Yin C.1995.Anewapproach to earthquake prediction:The load/unload response ratio(LURR)theory[J].Pure Appl Geophys,145(3-4):701-715.
Yin X C,Wang Y C,Peng K Y,Bai Y L,Wang H T,Yin X F.2000.Development of a new approach to earthquakeprediction-load/unload response ratio(LURR)theory[J].Pure Appl Geophys,157(11/12):2365-2383.
Yin X C,Mora P,Peng K Y,Wang Y C,Weatherley D.2002.Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/en-ergy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction[J].Pure Appl Geophys,159(10):2511-2523.
Yin X C,Yu HZ,Kukshenko V,Xu Z Y,Wu Z S,Li M,Peng K Y,Elizarov S,Li Q.2004.Load-unload response ra-tio(LURR),accelerating energy release(AER)and state vector evolution as precursors to failure of rock speci mens[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161(11/12):2405-2436.
Yin X C,Zhang L P,Zhang H H,Yin C,Wang Y C,Zhang Y X,Peng K Y,Wang H T,Song Z P,Yu HZ,ZhuangJ C.2006.LURR’s twenty years andits perspective[J].Pure Appl Geophys,163(11/12):2317-2341.
Zhang Y X,Yin X C,Peng K Y.2004.Spatial and temporal variation of LURR and its i mplication for the tendency ofearthquake occurrence in southern California[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161(11/12):2359-2367.
邓起东.2007.中国活动构造图(1∶400万)[M].北京:地震出版社:1-5.
李旭东.1995.倾斜固体潮的响应比研究[J].地壳形变与地震,15(3):67-73.
李佐唐.1997.门源6.4级地震前后加卸载响应比的异常变化[J].西北地震学报,18(4):47-50.
施行觉,陈学忠.1994.模拟引潮力作用下的岩石破裂特征:加卸载响应比理论的实验研究之一[J].地球物理学报,37(5):633-638.
王勤彩,杜锡武,马兴国,乔子云.1997.大同两次中强地震前应变、倾加卸载响应比异常研究[J].华北地震科学,15(3):67-72.
续春荣,林云芳,吕桂芳,赵明,李盛祥,勾宪彬,于敬忠,曾小苹.1998.地球磁场对太阳风的加卸载响应比与川滇中强地震[J].中国地震,14(2):190-196.
杨林章,何世海,郗钦文,李松阳,黎凯武.1994.用潮汐体应变加卸载响应比研究岩石弹性性质变化[J].中国地震,10(增刊):90-94.
曾小苹,续春荣,赵明,陈绍明,林云芳.1996.地球磁场对太阳风的加卸载响应与地震[J].地震地磁观测与研究,17(1):49-53.
张昭栋,王秀芹,董守德,1999.加卸载响应比在体应变固体潮中的应用[J].地震,19(3):217-222.
Anderson G,Johnson H.1999.A new statistical test for static stress triggering:Application to the1987SuperstitionHills earthquake sequence[J].J Geophys Res,104(B9):20153-20168.
Bowman D D,King G C P.2001.Accelerating seismicity and stress accumulation before large earthquakes[J].GeophysRes Lett,28(21):4039-4042.
Burridge R,Knopoff L.1967.Model and theoretical seismicity[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,57(3):341-371.
Cao T,Aki K.1984.Seismicity si mulation with a mass-spring model and a displacement hardening-softening friction law[J].Pure Appl Geophys,122(1):10-24.
Carlson J M,Langer J S.1984.Mechanical model of an earthquake fault[J].Phys Rev,A40(3):6470-6484.
Cochran E S,Vidale J E,Tanaka S.2004.Earthquake tides can trigger shallowthrust fault earthquakes[J].Science,306(5699):1164-1166.
Deng J,Sykes L R.1997.Evolution of stress fieldin southern California and triggering of moderate-size earthquakes:A200years prospective[J].J Geophs Res,102(B5):9859-9886.
Hardebeck J L,Hauksson E.2001.Crustal stress fieldin southern California anditsi mplications for fault mechanics[J].J Geophys Res,106(B10):21859-21882.
Hauksson E L,Jones M,Hutton K.2002.The1999MW7.1Hector Mine,California,earthquake sequence:Complexconjugate strike-slip faulting[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,92(4):1154-1170.
Hubert-Ferrari A,Barka A,Jacques E,Nalbant S,Meyer B,Armijo R,Tapponnier P,King G C P.2000.Seismic haz-ardin the Marmara Sea region following the17August1999Izmit earthquake[J].Nature,404(6775):269-273.
Hudnut K W,Bock Y,Cline M,Fang P,Freymueller J,Gross K,Jackson D,Larson S,Lisowski M,Shen Z,Svarc J.1994.Coseismic displacements in the Landers sequence[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,84(3):625-645.
Ji C,Hayes G.2008.Preli minary result of the May12,2008MW7.9eastern Sichuan,China earthquake[EB/OL].[2008-10-30].http:∥earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2008/us2008ryan/finite_fault.php.
King G C P,Cocco M.2001.Fault interaction by elastic stress changes:Newclues fromearthquake sequences[J].AdvGeophys,44:1-38.
Levin S Z,Sammis C G,Bowman D D.2006.An observational test of the stress accumulation model based on seismicitypreceding the1992Landers,CAearthquake[J].Tectonophysics,413(1-2):39-52.
Nalbant S S,Hubert-Ferrari A,King G C P.1998.Stress coupling between earthquakes in northwest turkey and thenorth Aegean Sea[J].J Geophys Res,103(B10):24469-24486.
Okada Y.1992.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,82(2):1018-1042.
Papadi mitriou E E,Sykes L R.2001.Evolution of the stress field in the northern Aegean Sea[J].Geophys J Int,146(3):747-759.
Reasenberg P A,Si mpson R W.1992.Response of regional seismicity to the static stress change produced by the LomaPrieta earthquake[J].Science,255(5052):1687-1690.
Sammis C G,Bowman D D,King G C P.2004.Anomalous seismicity and accelerating moment release precedingthe2001and2002earthquakes in northern Baja California,Mexico[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161(11/12):2369-2378.
Savage J C.1983.A dislocation model of strain accumulation and release at a subduction zone[J].J Geophys Res,88(B6):4948-4996.
Smith S W,Sammis C G.2004.Revisiting the tidal activation of seismicity with a damage mechanics andfriction point ofview[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161(11/12):2393-2404.
Stein R S,King G C P,Lin J.1992.Change in failure stress on the southern San Andreas fault systemcaused by the1992magnitude=7.4Landers earthquake[J].Science,258(5086):1328-1332.
Stein RS,King G C P,Lin J.1994.Stress triggering of the1994M=6.7Northridge,California,earthquake byits pre-decessors[J].Science,265(5177):1432-1435.
Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.1997.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since1939by earthquakestress triggering[J].Geophys J Int,128(3):594-604.
Stein R S.1999.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence[J].Nature,402(6762):605-609.
Tanaka S,Ohtake M,Sato H.2004.Tidal triggering of earthquakes in Japan related to the regional tectonic stress[J].Earth Planets Space,56(5):511-515.
Trotta J E,Tullis T E.2006.Anindependent assessment of theload/unload response ratio(LURR)proposed method ofearthquake prediction[J].Pure Appl Geophys,163(11/12):2375-2387.
Wald DJ,Heaton T H,Hudnut T W.1996.The slip history of the1994Northridge,California,earthquake determinedfromstrong ground motion,teleseismic,GPS,and leveling data[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,86(1B):49-70.
Wan Y G,Wu Z L,Zhou G W.2004.Focal mechanismdependence of static stress triggering of earthquakes[J].Tec-tonophysics,390(1-4):235-243.
Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P,Yin C.1995.Anewapproach to earthquake prediction:The load/unload response ratio(LURR)theory[J].Pure Appl Geophys,145(3-4):701-715.
Yin X C,Wang Y C,Peng K Y,Bai Y L,Wang H T,Yin X F.2000.Development of a new approach to earthquakeprediction-load/unload response ratio(LURR)theory[J].Pure Appl Geophys,157(11/12):2365-2383.
Yin X C,Mora P,Peng K Y,Wang Y C,Weatherley D.2002.Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/en-ergy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction[J].Pure Appl Geophys,159(10):2511-2523.
Yin X C,Yu HZ,Kukshenko V,Xu Z Y,Wu Z S,Li M,Peng K Y,Elizarov S,Li Q.2004.Load-unload response ra-tio(LURR),accelerating energy release(AER)and state vector evolution as precursors to failure of rock speci mens[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161(11/12):2405-2436.
Yin X C,Zhang L P,Zhang H H,Yin C,Wang Y C,Zhang Y X,Peng K Y,Wang H T,Song Z P,Yu HZ,ZhuangJ C.2006.LURR’s twenty years andits perspective[J].Pure Appl Geophys,163(11/12):2317-2341.
Zhang Y X,Yin X C,Peng K Y.2004.Spatial and temporal variation of LURR and its i mplication for the tendency ofearthquake occurrence in southern California[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161(11/12):2359-2367.
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