汶川地震引发的中国地震预报探讨
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摘要
通过中国地震预报历程、地震震例的总结研究和汶川地震的概要回顾,表明我国地震预报已取得了有益的经验教训,海城地震等事例说明至少一些地震是存在前兆的,依据前兆进行地震预报是有希望的,但地震预报需要持续不断的长期探索研究。目前,依靠地震预报来防御地震灾害是不现实的,加强地震预报的科学研究,基于地震危险性的科学分析结果进行抗震设防是有效的减灾途径。
In China,earthquake prediction is a government-sanctioned and law-regulated measure of disaster prevention. This paper briefly reviewed the history of earthquake prediction work in China since 1966,12 predicted earthquakes in 1975 to 2003,and the prediction work prior to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.The earthquake prediction work started in the Xingtai earthquake occurred in March 1966.It climaxed with the prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake with an unusually pronounced foreshock sequence.The 1975 Haicheng earthquake and other earthquakes demonstrated that some earthquakes do have precursors that may lead to some prediction,although the physical relationships between precursors and earthquakes are not well understood up to now.Nevertheless,the 1976 Tangshan earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake demonstrated the gloomy reality of earthquake prediction.At present,therefore,it is impractical to rely on prediction to prevent earthquake disasters.The practical approach is to strengthen the earthquake resistant capability of our buildings.The earthquake prediction work has yielded useful experience and lessons in China.Perhaps,earthquake prediction still requires long-term efforts of generations of scientists in the world.
In China,earthquake prediction is a government-sanctioned and law-regulated measure of disaster prevention. This paper briefly reviewed the history of earthquake prediction work in China since 1966,12 predicted earthquakes in 1975 to 2003,and the prediction work prior to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.The earthquake prediction work started in the Xingtai earthquake occurred in March 1966.It climaxed with the prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake with an unusually pronounced foreshock sequence.The 1975 Haicheng earthquake and other earthquakes demonstrated that some earthquakes do have precursors that may lead to some prediction,although the physical relationships between precursors and earthquakes are not well understood up to now.Nevertheless,the 1976 Tangshan earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake demonstrated the gloomy reality of earthquake prediction.At present,therefore,it is impractical to rely on prediction to prevent earthquake disasters.The practical approach is to strengthen the earthquake resistant capability of our buildings.The earthquake prediction work has yielded useful experience and lessons in China.Perhaps,earthquake prediction still requires long-term efforts of generations of scientists in the world.
引文
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2 Wang Kelin,Chen Qifu,Sun Shihong et al.Predicting the 1975 Haicheng earthquake.Bulletin of the Sedismological Society of America,2006,96 (3) :757-795
3 岳明生.地震预测研究发展战略几点思考,国际地震动态, 2005,(5) :7-21 Yue Mingsheng.Thoughts about the strategy for the development of earthquake prediction.Recent Developments in World Seismology,2005,(5) :7-21
4 Chen Qifu,Wang Kelin.The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and earthquake prediction in China.Bulletin of the Sedismological Society of America,2010 (in press)
5 孙其政,吴书贵主编.中国地震监测预报40年(1966-2006) (上册).北京:地震出版社,2007． 950 Sun Qizheng,Wu Shugui eds.Development of the Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction in China during 1966-2006 (Ⅰ).Beijing:Seismological Press,2007． 950
6 卫一清,丁国瑜主编.当代中国的地震事业.北京:当代中国出版社,1993． 462 Wei Yiqing,Ding Guoyu eds.The Endeavour of Earthquake Seismology in Modern China.Beijing:Modern China Press,1993． 462
7 郭安宁著.中国唐山大地震.西安:陕西科学技术出版社,2008． 477 Guo Anning.The Great Earthquake of Tangshan,China.Xi'an: Shannxi Science and Technology Publishing House,2008． 477
8 邬福肇,曹康泰,陈章立主编.中华人民共和国防震减灾法释义.北京:法律出版社,1998． 41-45 Wu Fuzhao,Chao Kangtai,Chen Zhangli eds.Commentaries on the Law on Protecting Against and Mitigating Earthquake Disasters.Beijing:People's Republic of China,Law Press,1998． 41-45
9 陈建民.纪念唐山地震30周年扎实推进我国的防震减灾事业.中原减灾报,2006年7月15日,http://www.csj.ac.cn/ymd/xgzhxx/dhy2006073105． htm Chen Jianmin.Commemoration of 30th anniversary of the Tangshan earthquake,promoting foundationally the earthquake preparedness and disaster mitigation in China.Newspaper on Zhongyuan Disaster Ruduction,July 15,2006． http://www.csi.ac.cn/ymd/xgzhxx/dhy2006073105,htm
10 国家地震局,国家统计局编.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1990-1995) .北京:地震出版社,1996． 210 State Seismological Bureau,National Bureau of Statistics of China eds.Collection of Loss Estimation of Earthquake Disasters in China Mainland(1990-1995) .Beijing:Seismological Press,1996． 210
11 中国地震局监测预报司编.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1996-2000) .北京:地震出版社,2001． 390 Department of Monitoring and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration eds.Collection of Loss Estimation of Earthquake Disasters in China Mainland (1996-2000) .Beijing:Seismological Press,2001． 390
12 中国地震局监测预报司.2001年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评.见:中国地震年鉴编辑部.2001年中国地震年鉴.北京:地震出版社,2002． 140-145 Department of Monitoring and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration eds.Summary of loss estimation of earthquake disasters in China mainland in 2001． In:Editorial Office of " China Earthquake Yearbook ".Chinese Earthquake Yearbook-2001． Beijing:Seismological Press,2002． 140-145
13 Jackson D D.Earthquake prediction and forecasting.In:Sparks R S J,Hawkesworth C J eds.The State of the Planet:Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics.American Geophysical Monograph 150,2004． 335-348
14 四川省地震局编,一九七六年松潘地震.北京:地震出版社,1979． 112 Sichuan Provincial Seismological Bureau ed.1976 Songpan Earthquake.Beijing:Seismological Press,1979． 112
15 Wallace R E,Teng Taliang.Prediction of the Sungpan-Pingwu earthquakes.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1980,70(4) :1199-1223
16 建设部抗震办公室编.建筑抗震设计规范(GBJ11-89) 统一培训教材.北京:地震出版社,1991． 272 Earthquake Office of Ministry of Construction ed.Training Materials for Code for Seismic Design of Buildings GBJ11-89． Beijing: Seismological Press,1991． 272
17 陈焕新著.一个没挂牌子的国务院机关.北京:地震出版社,1992． 119-176 Chen Huanxin.A Department of the State Council of the People's Republic of China without Nameplate.Beijing:Seismological Press,1992． 119-176
18 Burchfiel B,Chen Z,Liu Y et al.Tectonics of the Longmen Shan and adjacent regions.International Geology Review,1995,37:661-735
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