异常、前兆和干扰的新定义及其相关问题的讨论
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摘要
质疑了"前兆异常"原定义存在的与观测资料和预测实践不符合的缺陷,给出了异常、前兆及干扰的新定义。"异常"与"前兆"是两个完全不同的概念,异常不仅与地震有关,而且与地壳构造变动和相关自然现象也有关;地震前兆则是系由多种内因性和外因性异常构成的预测信息体系;干扰因素仅是偶然的、局部的人为因素。讨论了新老定义之间的差异、新定义的事实依据、地下水等手段今后需解决的关键性任务、现实地震预测能力的有限性等问题;提出了我国地震预报工作的重点应做"战略转移",并且需对我国几十年地震预报探索的科学思路、积累震例、预报实例和研究成果做"再清理"和"再研究"等建议。
The flaw of former definition that observation data were not in accord with prediction practice was questioned,and a new definition about precursor,abnormality,and interference was given."Precursor"and"Anomaly"are entirely different concepts.Anomaly are not only related to earthquake,but also related to crust tectonic activity and relevant natural phenomena.Seismic precursor anomaly is a forecast information system which consists of multiple internal and external causes.The interference factors merely are occasional partial human factors.We also discussed several issues including the discrepancy between former and new definition,the factual basis for new definition,critical tasks are urgent to be solved in groundwater methods and the practical restriction of seismic forecast ability.It is proposed that the working emphasis of seismic forecast in China should be shifted in strategy.Various proposals were put forward,scientific ways,earthquakes cases accumulation,forecast examples and the research results over decades in our country should be carried out"re-cleaning"and"restudying".
引文
[1]许绍燮.地震预报能力评分∥地震学专集.北京:学术书刊出版社,1989:586-589
    [2]张跃刚,陈绍绪,乔子云.河北省地震危险区判定工作的回顾与思考∥中国地震局地震预测研究所,中国地震台网中心,中国地震学会.中国地震预报探索.北京:地震出版社,2008:593-601
    [3]马昌博.地震预报的中国“江湖”.南方周未,2008-10-30
    1董守玉.震前固体潮畸变引起的思考.1998

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