利用GPS数据估算川滇南部地震(M_S≥6.5)平均复发间隔
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摘要
利用川滇南部GPS站点速度资料,采用Kriging插值和有限单元中形函数(拉格朗日差值函数)求导原则,计算了川滇南部主应变速率.在此基础上,引入Kostrov地震矩率计算方法,由主应变速率求得了研究区的地震矩率,进而借助于Ward地震平均复发间隔公式计算了研究区地震(MS≥6.5)平均复发间隔.计算结果表明,川滇南部不同震级档地震复发间隔空间分布总体上与区内主要活动断裂展布基本吻合;地震复发间隔低值区主要分布在地震活动水平和滑动速率较高的安宁河—则木河—小江断裂带、丽江—小金河断裂西南段、红河断裂西北段.所得的结果与利用历史地震资料获得的结果基本一致.该方法对于历史地震资料缺乏或不完整地区和活动断层定量研究程度较低的地区有着潜在的应用价值.
With a combination of the Kriging interpolation and shape function’s derivative (Lagrange interpolation function) used in finite element analysis,we have derived the elastic strain rate field in southern Sichuan-Yunnan region,China,based on the regional GPS velocity observations. Furthermore,the derived strain rate is directly converted into the seismic moment rate according to the Kostrov’s moment rate formula. By means of the Ward’s recurrence interval formula the recurrence intervals of MS≥6.5 earthquakes in southern Sichuan-Yunnan region are obtained numerically. The result shows that the contours of earthquake recurrence intervals generally coinside with the major fault zones. The low interval values are on the Anninghe-Zemuhe-Xiaojiang fault,the southwestern Lijiang-Xiaojinhe fault and the northwestern Red River fault,where the level of fault slip rate and earthquake activity is high. In general,the average earthquake recurrence intervals estimated in this paper are comparable with the intervals obtained from historical earthquake investigations. It should be pointed out that the methodology described in this paper has potential of application in modern seismic hazard assessment,especially for the regions being lack of instrumental and historical records.
With a combination of the Kriging interpolation and shape function’s derivative (Lagrange interpolation function) used in finite element analysis,we have derived the elastic strain rate field in southern Sichuan-Yunnan region,China,based on the regional GPS velocity observations. Furthermore,the derived strain rate is directly converted into the seismic moment rate according to the Kostrov’s moment rate formula. By means of the Ward’s recurrence interval formula the recurrence intervals of MS≥6.5 earthquakes in southern Sichuan-Yunnan region are obtained numerically. The result shows that the contours of earthquake recurrence intervals generally coinside with the major fault zones. The low interval values are on the Anninghe-Zemuhe-Xiaojiang fault,the southwestern Lijiang-Xiaojinhe fault and the northwestern Red River fault,where the level of fault slip rate and earthquake activity is high. In general,the average earthquake recurrence intervals estimated in this paper are comparable with the intervals obtained from historical earthquake investigations. It should be pointed out that the methodology described in this paper has potential of application in modern seismic hazard assessment,especially for the regions being lack of instrumental and historical records.
引文
陈小斌.2007.中国陆地现今水平形变状况及其驱动机制[J].中国科学:D辑,37(8):1056-1064.
程万正,杨永林.2002.川滇地块边界构造带变形速率变化与成组强震[J].大地测量与地球动力学,22(4):21-25.
高孟潭,卢寿德.2006.关于下一代地震区划图编制原则与关键技术的初步探讨[J].震灾防御技术,1(1):1-6.
黄立人,王敏.2000.中国陆地现今地壳水平运动[J].地震学报,22(3):257-262.
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.1994.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二:分区地震资料基本完整的起始年分布图像[J].地震学报,16(4):423-432.
胡聿贤(主编).2001.中国地震动参数区划图宣贯教材(GB18306-2001)[S].北京:中国标准出版社:90-94.
江在森,马宗晋,张希,王琪,王双绪.2003.GPS初步结果揭示的中国陆地水平应变场与构造变形[J].地球物理学报,46(3):352-358.
马宏生,张国民,周龙泉,刘杰,邵志刚,夏红.2008.川滇地区中小震重新定位与速度结构的联合反演研究[J].地震,28(2):29-38.
冉洪流,何宏林.2006.鲜水河断裂带北西段不同破裂源强震震级(≥6.7)及复发间隔研究[J].地球物理学报,49(1):153-161.
申重阳,王琪,吴云,游新兆,甘家思,杨少敏.2002.川滇菱形块体主要边界运动模型的GPS数据反演分析[J].地球物理学报,45(3):352-361.
沈正康,王敏,甘卫军,张祖胜.2003.中国大陆现今构造应变率场及其动力学成因研究[J].地学前缘,10(特刊):93-100.
王辉,张国民,江在森,马宏生,王新岭.2005.利用多种地震学参数研究中国大陆地壳应变场[J].地震,25(2):9-18.
王琪,张培震,马宗晋.2002.中国大陆现今构造变形GPS观测数据与速度场[J].地学前缘,9(2):415-429.
王琪.2003.中国大陆现今地壳运动研究[J].地震学报,25(5):541-547.
熊熊,许厚泽,滕吉文.2001.青藏高原物质东流力学背景探讨[J].地壳形变与地震,21(2):1-7.
徐锡伟,闻学泽,郑荣章,马文涛,宋方敏,于贵华.2003.川滇地区活动块体最新构造变动样式及其动力来源[J].中国科学:D辑,33(增刊):151-162.
杨国华,李延兴,韩月萍,胡新康,巩曰沐.2002.由GPS观测结果推导中国陆地现今水平应变场[J].地震学报,24(4):337-347.
杨少敏,王琪,游新兆.2005.中国现今地壳运动GPS速度场的连续形变分析[J].地震学报,27(3):128-138.
杨智娴,陈运泰,郑月军,于湘伟.2003.双差地震定位法在我国中西部地区地震精确定位中的应用[J].中国科学:D辑,33(增刊):129-134.
俞维贤,汪一鹏,王彬,宋方敏,谢英情.2004.云南小江西支断裂古地震及现今地震危险性研究[J].地震研究,27(增刊):29-32.
张培震,王敏,甘卫军,邓起东.2003.GPS观测的活动断裂滑动速率及其对现今大陆动力学作用的制约[J].地学前缘,10(特刊):81-92.
钟羽云,朱新运,张震峰.2004.不同类型地震的地震矩-震级标度关系研究[J].西北地震学报,26(1):57-61.
周本刚,周庆.2005.对现今地壳变形资料在地震区划中应用的初步探讨[J].中国地震,21(2):155-164.
朱守彪,蔡永恩,石耀霖.2005.青藏高原及邻区现今地应变率场的计算及其结果的地球动力学意义[J].地球物理学报,48(5):1053-1061.
Kostrov V V.1974.Seismic moment and energy of earthquakes and seismic flowof rock[J].Iav Acad Sci USSR PhysSolid Earth,1:23-40.
Krige D G.1951.A statistical approach to some basic mine valuation problem on the Witwatersrand[J].Journal ofChemical,Metallurgical and Mining Society of South Africa,52(6):119-139.
Matheron G.1963.Principles of geostatistics[J].Economic Geology,58(8):1246-1266.
Molnar P.1979.Earthquake recurrence intervals and plate tectonics[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,69(1):115-133.
Savage J C,Si mpson R W.1997.Surface strain accumulation and the seismic moment tensor[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,87:1345-1353.
The National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project.2008.Documentation for the2008Update ofthe United States NationalSeismic Hazard Maps[R/OL].USGS.[2008-5-13].http:∥earthquake.usgs.gov/research/hazmaps/products-da-ta/2008/.
Wallace R E,Davis J F,McNally K C.1984.Terms for expressing earthquake potential prediction and probability[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,74:1819-1825.
Ward S N.1994.A multidisciplinary approachto seismic hazardin southern California[J].Bull SeismSoc Amer,84(5):1293-1309.
Ward S N.2007.Methods for evaluating earthquake potential and likelihood in and around California[J].Seism ResLett,78(1):121-133.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.2003.Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region:2002-2031[R].USGS.Open-File Report03-214.
程万正,杨永林.2002.川滇地块边界构造带变形速率变化与成组强震[J].大地测量与地球动力学,22(4):21-25.
高孟潭,卢寿德.2006.关于下一代地震区划图编制原则与关键技术的初步探讨[J].震灾防御技术,1(1):1-6.
黄立人,王敏.2000.中国陆地现今地壳水平运动[J].地震学报,22(3):257-262.
黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.1994.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之二:分区地震资料基本完整的起始年分布图像[J].地震学报,16(4):423-432.
胡聿贤(主编).2001.中国地震动参数区划图宣贯教材(GB18306-2001)[S].北京:中国标准出版社:90-94.
江在森,马宗晋,张希,王琪,王双绪.2003.GPS初步结果揭示的中国陆地水平应变场与构造变形[J].地球物理学报,46(3):352-358.
马宏生,张国民,周龙泉,刘杰,邵志刚,夏红.2008.川滇地区中小震重新定位与速度结构的联合反演研究[J].地震,28(2):29-38.
冉洪流,何宏林.2006.鲜水河断裂带北西段不同破裂源强震震级(≥6.7)及复发间隔研究[J].地球物理学报,49(1):153-161.
申重阳,王琪,吴云,游新兆,甘家思,杨少敏.2002.川滇菱形块体主要边界运动模型的GPS数据反演分析[J].地球物理学报,45(3):352-361.
沈正康,王敏,甘卫军,张祖胜.2003.中国大陆现今构造应变率场及其动力学成因研究[J].地学前缘,10(特刊):93-100.
王辉,张国民,江在森,马宏生,王新岭.2005.利用多种地震学参数研究中国大陆地壳应变场[J].地震,25(2):9-18.
王琪,张培震,马宗晋.2002.中国大陆现今构造变形GPS观测数据与速度场[J].地学前缘,9(2):415-429.
王琪.2003.中国大陆现今地壳运动研究[J].地震学报,25(5):541-547.
熊熊,许厚泽,滕吉文.2001.青藏高原物质东流力学背景探讨[J].地壳形变与地震,21(2):1-7.
徐锡伟,闻学泽,郑荣章,马文涛,宋方敏,于贵华.2003.川滇地区活动块体最新构造变动样式及其动力来源[J].中国科学:D辑,33(增刊):151-162.
杨国华,李延兴,韩月萍,胡新康,巩曰沐.2002.由GPS观测结果推导中国陆地现今水平应变场[J].地震学报,24(4):337-347.
杨少敏,王琪,游新兆.2005.中国现今地壳运动GPS速度场的连续形变分析[J].地震学报,27(3):128-138.
杨智娴,陈运泰,郑月军,于湘伟.2003.双差地震定位法在我国中西部地区地震精确定位中的应用[J].中国科学:D辑,33(增刊):129-134.
俞维贤,汪一鹏,王彬,宋方敏,谢英情.2004.云南小江西支断裂古地震及现今地震危险性研究[J].地震研究,27(增刊):29-32.
张培震,王敏,甘卫军,邓起东.2003.GPS观测的活动断裂滑动速率及其对现今大陆动力学作用的制约[J].地学前缘,10(特刊):81-92.
钟羽云,朱新运,张震峰.2004.不同类型地震的地震矩-震级标度关系研究[J].西北地震学报,26(1):57-61.
周本刚,周庆.2005.对现今地壳变形资料在地震区划中应用的初步探讨[J].中国地震,21(2):155-164.
朱守彪,蔡永恩,石耀霖.2005.青藏高原及邻区现今地应变率场的计算及其结果的地球动力学意义[J].地球物理学报,48(5):1053-1061.
Kostrov V V.1974.Seismic moment and energy of earthquakes and seismic flowof rock[J].Iav Acad Sci USSR PhysSolid Earth,1:23-40.
Krige D G.1951.A statistical approach to some basic mine valuation problem on the Witwatersrand[J].Journal ofChemical,Metallurgical and Mining Society of South Africa,52(6):119-139.
Matheron G.1963.Principles of geostatistics[J].Economic Geology,58(8):1246-1266.
Molnar P.1979.Earthquake recurrence intervals and plate tectonics[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,69(1):115-133.
Savage J C,Si mpson R W.1997.Surface strain accumulation and the seismic moment tensor[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,87:1345-1353.
The National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project.2008.Documentation for the2008Update ofthe United States NationalSeismic Hazard Maps[R/OL].USGS.[2008-5-13].http:∥earthquake.usgs.gov/research/hazmaps/products-da-ta/2008/.
Wallace R E,Davis J F,McNally K C.1984.Terms for expressing earthquake potential prediction and probability[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,74:1819-1825.
Ward S N.1994.A multidisciplinary approachto seismic hazardin southern California[J].Bull SeismSoc Amer,84(5):1293-1309.
Ward S N.2007.Methods for evaluating earthquake potential and likelihood in and around California[J].Seism ResLett,78(1):121-133.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.2003.Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region:2002-2031[R].USGS.Open-File Report03-214.
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