沿海场点地震海啸危险性概率分析
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摘要
地震危险性分析工作在我国已趋于成熟,而海啸危险性分析则刚刚起步。论文从介绍海啸危险性分析的基本原理和步骤出发,基于数值模拟技术,针对我国南部沿海的大鹏湾附近场点开展地震海啸危险性概率分析,给出了超越概率曲线,为实现我国沿海地区地震海啸危险性区划图具有一定参考意义。
With the development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis( PSHA),tsunami hazard analysis method has gradually practiced and turned to probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis( PTHA). Especially for the areas lack of the historical tsunami data,the numerical simulation method is the best effective way to evaluate the tsunami hazard. In this paper,we accomplish the work of PTHA on a giant infrastructure site,which can provide technical supports for constructing China tsunami zonation map.
With the development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis( PSHA),tsunami hazard analysis method has gradually practiced and turned to probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis( PTHA). Especially for the areas lack of the historical tsunami data,the numerical simulation method is the best effective way to evaluate the tsunami hazard. In this paper,we accomplish the work of PTHA on a giant infrastructure site,which can provide technical supports for constructing China tsunami zonation map.
引文
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[2]KURKIN A A,PELINOVSKII E N,CHOI B H,et al.A Comparative estimation of the tsunami hazard for the russian coast of the sea of japan based on numerical simulation[J].Oceanology C/C of Okeanologiia,44:163-172.
[3]HOUSTON J R,CARVER R D,MARKLE D G.Tsunami-wave elevation frequency of occurrence for the Hawaiian Islands[R].U.S.Army Corps of Engineers Waterways Experiment Station Technical Report H-77-16,1977.
[4]LIU Y,SANTOS A,WANG S M,SHI Y S,et al.Tsunami hazards along Chinese coast from potential in South China Sea[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,2007,163(1-4):233-244.
[5]GEIST E L and PARSONS T.Probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards[J].Natural Hazards,2006 37(3):277-314.
[6]CORNELL C A.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1968,58(5):1583-1606.
[7]胡聿贤主编.地震安全性评价技术教程[M].北京:地震出版社,1999.
[8]Gaye L Downes and Mark W Stirling.Groundwork for development of a probabilistic tsunami hazard model for New Zealand[C]∥ITS 2001 Processings,Session 1,Number 1-6:292-301.
[9]陈龙生,陈棋福,陈凌,等.中国大陆与香港及周围地区的地震目录完全性分析[J].中国地震,1997,13(4):311-320.CHAN Lungsang,CHEN Qifu,CHEN Ling,et al.Completeness analysis of earthquake catalogues of China and Hong Kong and Its vicinity[J].Earthquake Research in China,1997,13(4):311-320.(in Chinese)
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