地震危险性分析的不确定性对核电厂抗震裕度影响研究
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摘要
抗震裕度分析是评估核电厂抵御外部事件能力的必要方法,裕度分析中的关键参数依赖于地震危险性分析结果,而其结果受不确定性影响较大。本文总结了抗震裕度分析方法,分析了审查级地震的选取以及地震概率危险性分析中不确定性对抗震裕度分析的影响,对抗震裕度分析中如何考虑不确定性提出相关建议。
The seismic margin assessment methodology is considered a necessary approach to assess nuclear plant safety to external events. To a large degree,the key parameters of seismic margin assessment rely on the seismic hazard analysis,which is greatly influenced by the uncertainty of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. This paper mainly introduced the seismic margin assessment methodology,the selection of review level earthquake,the uncertainty of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and its effects on seismic margin assessment. At last,some suggestion about how to deal with the uncertainties is provided.
The seismic margin assessment methodology is considered a necessary approach to assess nuclear plant safety to external events. To a large degree,the key parameters of seismic margin assessment rely on the seismic hazard analysis,which is greatly influenced by the uncertainty of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. This paper mainly introduced the seismic margin assessment methodology,the selection of review level earthquake,the uncertainty of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and its effects on seismic margin assessment. At last,some suggestion about how to deal with the uncertainties is provided.
引文
[1]US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.Regulatory commission on trial guidelines for seismic margin review of nuclear power plants,NUREG/CR-4482[R].Washington,D.C.:NRC,1986.
[2]胡聿贤.核设施地震危险性估计中的几个问题[J].地震地质,1993,04:308-316.
[3]US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.An approach to the quantification of seismic margins in nuclear power plants,NUREG/CR-4334[R].Washington,D.C.:NRC,1985.
[4]US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.Seismic margin review of the Maine Yankee Atomic Power Station,NUREG/CR-4826[R].Washington,D.C.:NRC,1987.
[5]张家倍,李明高,马琳伟.核电厂抗震安全评估[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,2013.
[6]US Electric Power Research Institute.A methodology for assessment of nuclear power plant seismic margin,NP-6041-SL[R].Rev.1.Palo Alto,California:EPRI,1991.
[7]US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.Procedural and submittal guidance for the individual plant examination of external events(IPEEE)for severe accident vulnerabilities,NUREG-1407[R].Washington,D.C.:NRC,1991.
[8]Mc Guire,R.K.,Seismic Hazard Uncertainty and its Effects on Design Earthquake Ground Motions,Pro.International Seminar on Seismic Zonation,Guangzhou,China,1987.
[9]潘华.概率地震危险性分析中参数不确定性研究[D].中国地震局地球物理研究所博士论文,2000.
[10]潘华,黄玮琼.地震统计区划分不确定性对场点地震危险性计算的影响[J].地震学报,2003,02:199-204.
[11]陈鲲,高孟潭.地震动参数区划中的不确定性分析[J].地震学报,2010,02:184-192+256.
[12]鄢家全,韩炜,高孟潭,等.地震活动性参数的不确定性及其对区划结果的影响[J].中国地震,1996(12):71-77.
[13]黄雨蕊,张天中.地震活动性参数估计的K方法及潜在震源区边界不确定性的影响[J].中国地震,1996,S1:40-46.
[14]杨智娴,张培震,郑月君.用逻辑树方法估计地震年发生率的不确定性[J].地震学报,1998,02:74-82.
[15]黄玮琼,吴宣.地震活动性参数不确定性对城镇危险性估计的影响[J].地震学报,2003(6):615-620.
[16]潘华,李金臣.地震统计区地震活动性参数b值及ν_4不确定性研究[J].震灾防御技术,2006,03:218-224.
[17]谢卓娟,吕悦军,兰景岩等.b值和v4的统计分析及其不确定性对地震危险性分析结果的影响研究[J].地震研究,2013(1):86-92.
[18]Bender B.Modeling source zone boundary uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis,Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,Vol.76,No.2,1986.
[19]高玉峰,谢康和,曾国熙,等.地震危险性概率分析中不确定性因素的研究[J].浙江大学学报,1998(5):590-596.
[20]黄玮琼,吴宣.地震活动性参数不确定性对城镇危险性估计的影响[J].地震学报,2003,06:615-620.
[21]陈汉尧,胡聿贤,霍俊荣.衰减关系系数不确定性对地震危险性分析结果的影响[J].华北地震科学,1992(4):49-54.
[22]沈建文,赵鹏君.地震危险性分析衰减不确定性校正的主观不确定性[J].地震,1994.4(2):64-72.
[23]胡聿贤,陈汉尧.地震危险性估计中不确定性的概率分析[J].地震工程与工程振动,1991,04:1-9.
[24]Lind,N.C.,Reconciling Fuzzy Concepts and Probability in Structural Engineering,Proc,NSF Workshop in Civil Engineering Application of Fuzzy Sets,1985.
[25]陈汉尧,胡聿贤.地震危险性不确定性分析中专家意见的合理综合[J].华北地震科学,1993,03:1-8.
[2]胡聿贤.核设施地震危险性估计中的几个问题[J].地震地质,1993,04:308-316.
[3]US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.An approach to the quantification of seismic margins in nuclear power plants,NUREG/CR-4334[R].Washington,D.C.:NRC,1985.
[4]US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.Seismic margin review of the Maine Yankee Atomic Power Station,NUREG/CR-4826[R].Washington,D.C.:NRC,1987.
[5]张家倍,李明高,马琳伟.核电厂抗震安全评估[M].上海:上海科学技术出版社,2013.
[6]US Electric Power Research Institute.A methodology for assessment of nuclear power plant seismic margin,NP-6041-SL[R].Rev.1.Palo Alto,California:EPRI,1991.
[7]US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.Procedural and submittal guidance for the individual plant examination of external events(IPEEE)for severe accident vulnerabilities,NUREG-1407[R].Washington,D.C.:NRC,1991.
[8]Mc Guire,R.K.,Seismic Hazard Uncertainty and its Effects on Design Earthquake Ground Motions,Pro.International Seminar on Seismic Zonation,Guangzhou,China,1987.
[9]潘华.概率地震危险性分析中参数不确定性研究[D].中国地震局地球物理研究所博士论文,2000.
[10]潘华,黄玮琼.地震统计区划分不确定性对场点地震危险性计算的影响[J].地震学报,2003,02:199-204.
[11]陈鲲,高孟潭.地震动参数区划中的不确定性分析[J].地震学报,2010,02:184-192+256.
[12]鄢家全,韩炜,高孟潭,等.地震活动性参数的不确定性及其对区划结果的影响[J].中国地震,1996(12):71-77.
[13]黄雨蕊,张天中.地震活动性参数估计的K方法及潜在震源区边界不确定性的影响[J].中国地震,1996,S1:40-46.
[14]杨智娴,张培震,郑月君.用逻辑树方法估计地震年发生率的不确定性[J].地震学报,1998,02:74-82.
[15]黄玮琼,吴宣.地震活动性参数不确定性对城镇危险性估计的影响[J].地震学报,2003(6):615-620.
[16]潘华,李金臣.地震统计区地震活动性参数b值及ν_4不确定性研究[J].震灾防御技术,2006,03:218-224.
[17]谢卓娟,吕悦军,兰景岩等.b值和v4的统计分析及其不确定性对地震危险性分析结果的影响研究[J].地震研究,2013(1):86-92.
[18]Bender B.Modeling source zone boundary uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis,Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,Vol.76,No.2,1986.
[19]高玉峰,谢康和,曾国熙,等.地震危险性概率分析中不确定性因素的研究[J].浙江大学学报,1998(5):590-596.
[20]黄玮琼,吴宣.地震活动性参数不确定性对城镇危险性估计的影响[J].地震学报,2003,06:615-620.
[21]陈汉尧,胡聿贤,霍俊荣.衰减关系系数不确定性对地震危险性分析结果的影响[J].华北地震科学,1992(4):49-54.
[22]沈建文,赵鹏君.地震危险性分析衰减不确定性校正的主观不确定性[J].地震,1994.4(2):64-72.
[23]胡聿贤,陈汉尧.地震危险性估计中不确定性的概率分析[J].地震工程与工程振动,1991,04:1-9.
[24]Lind,N.C.,Reconciling Fuzzy Concepts and Probability in Structural Engineering,Proc,NSF Workshop in Civil Engineering Application of Fuzzy Sets,1985.
[25]陈汉尧,胡聿贤.地震危险性不确定性分析中专家意见的合理综合[J].华北地震科学,1993,03:1-8.
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