基于地震对应概率谱的多参数综合异常空间特征研究
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摘要
本文应用基于地震对应概率谱的多参数滑动极值概率方法对新疆南天山西段多种地震学参数资料进行定量化的异常识别提取,通过对该区中强地震前多参数滑动极值概率的空间演化过程进行全时空扫描,定量识别了该区中强地震的前兆综合异常时空异常特征。研究结果表明,南天山西段1980年以来发生的10次(组)中强地震前1~2年,震区附近区域多参数滑动极值概率均出现了高值异常变化过程,震后1年左右高值异常区逐步分散、缩小乃至消失,而中强地震平静时段滑动极值概率普遍无高值异常区域出现。
Using the method of multi-parametric moving maximum probability,we try to quantitatively identify and extract precursory anomalies from multi-parametric seismic data for the west section of southern Tianshan,Xinjiang.Through temporal-spatial scanning of spatial evolution process of multi-parametric moving maximum probability we obtained the spatial chracteristics of multi-parametric precursory anomalies before moderate-to-strong earthquakes in this region.It is found that for 10(or group) moderate-to-strong earthquakes since 1980 in the region,there are great changes of multi-parametric moving maximum probabilty 1 to 2 years before the earthquakes in the epicentral area,and high anomaly areas gradually dissipate,decrease or disappear about 1 year after the earthquakes.Generally,there are no high anomaly area of moving maximum probabilty in quiet periods.
Using the method of multi-parametric moving maximum probability,we try to quantitatively identify and extract precursory anomalies from multi-parametric seismic data for the west section of southern Tianshan,Xinjiang.Through temporal-spatial scanning of spatial evolution process of multi-parametric moving maximum probability we obtained the spatial chracteristics of multi-parametric precursory anomalies before moderate-to-strong earthquakes in this region.It is found that for 10(or group) moderate-to-strong earthquakes since 1980 in the region,there are great changes of multi-parametric moving maximum probabilty 1 to 2 years before the earthquakes in the epicentral area,and high anomaly areas gradually dissipate,decrease or disappear about 1 year after the earthquakes.Generally,there are no high anomaly area of moving maximum probabilty in quiet periods.
引文
[1]陈章立,李志雄.对地震预报的科学思考(二)——前兆观测研究及加强地震综合预报研究的方向和重点[J].地震,2008,28(2):1-16.
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[7]杜学彬,阮爱国,范世宏,等.强震近震中区地电阻率变化速率的各向异性[J].地震学报,2001,23(3):289-297.
[2]罗灼礼,王伟君.地震前兆的复杂性及地震预报、预警、预防综合决策问题的讨论[J].地震,2008,28(1):19-32.
[3]王海涛,王琼.基于地震对应概率谱分析的前兆异常识别研究[J].地震研究,2008,31(4):330-334.
[4]王海涛,朱令人,杨马陵,等.地震前兆观测数据的信息熵分析[J].地震,1991,11(5):13-18.
[5]薄万举,王彦.单项资料异常变化信息提取的一种新方法[J].大地形变测量,1993,9(3):17-20.
[6]薄万举,吴翼麟.异常信息流的标准化方法及其应用[J].地壳形变与地震,1993,13(2):9-15.
[7]杜学彬,阮爱国,范世宏,等.强震近震中区地电阻率变化速率的各向异性[J].地震学报,2001,23(3):289-297.
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