针对设定地震的地震预警能力评估
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摘要
地震预警系统,作为一种能够有效减轻地震灾害的手段,在世界范围内已经有不少学者对其做了相当深入的研究。我国现有的地震预警系统多采用原地预警的工作模式,与此同时一些异地预警模式的地震预警系统已经在建设与测试中。由于现代地震工程学的快速发展,新建工程拥有一定的抗震性能,所以现代的预警系统针对的是能量释放较多的大地震,即具有由较长的断层破裂造成的地震。考虑到大地震的断层破裂过程,预警系统做出准确判断的时间受断层破裂方式的影响。本文通过设定地震的方法,预期某一断层发生地震可能产生的震害,并与地震波的传播过程、地震预警系统的原理相结合,从理论上分析地震预警系统对大地震的预警能力。
As a way to effectively reduce the earthquake disaster,earthquake early warning systems has been researched deeply by many scholars in the world. Most of earthquake early warning systems in our country are in local warning mode. At the same time,some new earthquake early warning systems in remote warning mode are been building up and testing. Due to the rapid development of modern earthquake engineering,new constructions have better seismic performances. So modern earthquake early warning system is designed for those earthquakes with large fault length which release a lot of energy. Considering the process of fault rupture,the way of the fault rupture process affected the time for making accurate judgments by early warning systems. In this paper,a method by setting earthquake is used to expect the damage of a fault that may arise. Combining the characteristics of the propagation of seismic waves and earthquake warning systems,the method is used to theoretically analysis earthquake early warning capability of earthquake early warning system.
As a way to effectively reduce the earthquake disaster,earthquake early warning systems has been researched deeply by many scholars in the world. Most of earthquake early warning systems in our country are in local warning mode. At the same time,some new earthquake early warning systems in remote warning mode are been building up and testing. Due to the rapid development of modern earthquake engineering,new constructions have better seismic performances. So modern earthquake early warning system is designed for those earthquakes with large fault length which release a lot of energy. Considering the process of fault rupture,the way of the fault rupture process affected the time for making accurate judgments by early warning systems. In this paper,a method by setting earthquake is used to expect the damage of a fault that may arise. Combining the characteristics of the propagation of seismic waves and earthquake warning systems,the method is used to theoretically analysis earthquake early warning capability of earthquake early warning system.
引文
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[2]张红才,金星,李军,等.地震预警系统研究及应用进展[J].地球物理学进展,2013,28(2):0706-0719,doi:10.6038/pg20130219.ZHANG Hongcai,JIN Xing,LI Jun,et al.Progress of research and application of earthquake early warning system(EEWs)[J].Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),2013,28(2):0706-0719,doi:10.6038/pg20130219.
[3]罗奇峰.概率一致设定地震及其估计方法[J].地震工程与工程震动,16(3),22-28,1996.LUO Qifeng.Probability-consistent scenario earthquake and its determination[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,1966,16(3):22-28.(in Chinese)
[4]袁志祥,等.地震预警技术综述[J].自然灾害学报.Vol.16,No.6,Dec.2007.YUAN Zhixiang,SHAN Xiuzheng,XU Shifang,et al.An overview of earthquake early warning technology[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2007,16(6).(in Chinese)
[5]胡聿贤.地震工程学[M].北京:地震出版社,2006:362-375,
[6]张红才.地震预警系统关键技术研究[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2013.ZHANG Hongcai.Study of Key Technologies in Earthquake Early Warning System[D].Jan.2013.(in Chinese)
[7]GB/T 19428-2003地震灾害预测及其信息管理系统技术规范[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2003.GB/T 19428-2003 Code for Earthquake Disaster Evaluation and its Information Management System[S].Beijing:Standards Press of China,2003.(in Chinese)
[8]沈建文,邱瑛,赵志贺.震级—破裂长度关系与断层破裂模型[J].地球物理学报,Vol.33,No.2,Mar.,1990.SHEN Jianwen,QIU Ying,ZHAO Zhihe.Rupture length magnitude relationship and fault-rupture model[J].ACTA Geophysica Sinica,1990,33(2).(in Chinese)
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