诱震八因子概率统计模型法在水库诱发地震危险性概率评价中的应用
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摘要
针对水库诱发地震危险性评价,国标GB21075-2007《水库诱发地震危险性评价》要求分别采取定性评价、概率评价和综合评价3种方法进行评价。但目前特别在中小型水利水电工程的水库诱发地震评价中,仍普遍采用类比法进行定性评价,定量和半定量的评价方法很少用。概率评价是一种半定量评价法,概率评价的方法较多,但因常牵涉到高深的数学理论知识,广泛应用有一定的难度。笔者认为诱震八因子概率统计模型法在水库诱发地震危险性概率评价中,具有求解简单、可操作性强的特点,特别适合进行水库诱发地震危险性的半定量评价。
regarding risk assessment on the earthquakes induced by reservoir,three methods are required in Risk Assessment on Earthquake Induced by Reservoir(GB21075-2007): qualitative assessment,probability assessment and comprehensive assessment.Currently,the qualitative assessment by application of analogy method is widely applied especially in assessment of earthquakes induced by reservoirs of small & medium-sided water resources and hydropower projects.Both the qualitative and the semi-qualitative assessment methods are seldom applied.The probability assessment method is a semi-qualitative assessment one.It is with a couple of methods.But,it is difficult to apply widely as it often involves advanced mathematic theory.Therefore,in the probability assessment of risks of earthquakes induced by reservoirs,the probability statistics model for the eight factors of induced earthquakes features simple explanation and strongly practical operation,and especially it is suitable for the semi-qualitative assessment of risks of the earthquakes induced by reservoirs.
regarding risk assessment on the earthquakes induced by reservoir,three methods are required in Risk Assessment on Earthquake Induced by Reservoir(GB21075-2007): qualitative assessment,probability assessment and comprehensive assessment.Currently,the qualitative assessment by application of analogy method is widely applied especially in assessment of earthquakes induced by reservoirs of small & medium-sided water resources and hydropower projects.Both the qualitative and the semi-qualitative assessment methods are seldom applied.The probability assessment method is a semi-qualitative assessment one.It is with a couple of methods.But,it is difficult to apply widely as it often involves advanced mathematic theory.Therefore,in the probability assessment of risks of earthquakes induced by reservoirs,the probability statistics model for the eight factors of induced earthquakes features simple explanation and strongly practical operation,and especially it is suitable for the semi-qualitative assessment of risks of the earthquakes induced by reservoirs.
引文
[1]GB21075-2007,水库诱发地震危险性评价[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2007.
[2]苏锦星,夏其发,汪雍熙,汪学申,鞠占斌.大藤峡水库诱发地震初步预测[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1993,(04):42-51.
[3]苏锦星,汪雍熙.水库诱发地震可能性的定量评价[A].第六届全国工程地质大会论文集[C].2000.
[4]陈德基,汪雍熙,曾新平.三峡工程水库诱发地震问题研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,(08):1513-1524.
[2]苏锦星,夏其发,汪雍熙,汪学申,鞠占斌.大藤峡水库诱发地震初步预测[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1993,(04):42-51.
[3]苏锦星,汪雍熙.水库诱发地震可能性的定量评价[A].第六届全国工程地质大会论文集[C].2000.
[4]陈德基,汪雍熙,曾新平.三峡工程水库诱发地震问题研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,(08):1513-1524.
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