龙门山断裂带地震活动的月尺度频度分布特征
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摘要
利用Kolmogorov-Smirnov分布检验法,对龙门山断裂带地震活动的月尺度频度分布进行了检验。结果表明,1970年以来ML≥3.0地震活动半年频度符合正态分布,而2000年以来ML≥2.0级地震活动月频度符合泊松分布。对半年频度和月频度分布随时间的变化做了进一步分析,发现在1999年9月、11月四川绵竹2次MS5.0地震前和汶川MS8.0地震前,龙门山断裂带ML≥3.0地震活动半年频度分布均表现出明显的异常变化,在汶川地震前ML≥2.0地震活动月频度分布出现异常变化。
The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is used in this paper to test the distribution of month-scale number of small earthquakes occurred in the Longmenshan fault,Sichuan,China.The results show that the distribution of the semi-anual number for ML≥3.0 earthquakes occurred since 1970 agrees with normal distribution,and that of the monthly number for ML≥2.0 earthquakes occurred since 2000 agrees with the Possion distribution.Analyzing further the changes of distributions of the monthly number and the semi-anual number with time,it is found that before the two earthquakes with MS5.0 in September and November of 1999 and the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake,the distribution of the semi-annual number for ML≥3.0 earthquakes changes abnormally,and the distribution of the monthly number for ML≥2.0 earthquakes changes obviously prior to the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake.
The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is used in this paper to test the distribution of month-scale number of small earthquakes occurred in the Longmenshan fault,Sichuan,China.The results show that the distribution of the semi-anual number for ML≥3.0 earthquakes occurred since 1970 agrees with normal distribution,and that of the monthly number for ML≥2.0 earthquakes occurred since 2000 agrees with the Possion distribution.Analyzing further the changes of distributions of the monthly number and the semi-anual number with time,it is found that before the two earthquakes with MS5.0 in September and November of 1999 and the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake,the distribution of the semi-annual number for ML≥3.0 earthquakes changes abnormally,and the distribution of the monthly number for ML≥2.0 earthquakes changes obviously prior to the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake.
引文
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[2]张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽,等.2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(4):166-172.
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[4]赵祎喆,吴忠良,蒋长胜,等.用地震资料估计的龙门山断裂带深部形变及其对于汶川地震成因的意义[J].地质学报,2008,82(12):1778-1787.
[5]陈章立,李志雄.严重的挫折重要的启示—汶川8.0级地震引发的对地震预测研究的某些科学思考[J].地震,2009,29(1):182-191.
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[7]梅世蓉,薛艳,宋治平.汶川8.0级与昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动异常特征与启示[J].地震,2009,29(1):1-21.
[8]张致伟,程万正,阮强,等.汶川8.0级地震前龙门山断裂带的地震活动性和构造应力场特征[J].地震学报,2009,31(2):117-127.
[9]Huang Q.Seismicity changes prior to theMS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan,China[J].Geo-phys Res Lett,2008,35,L23308,doi:10.1029/2008GL036270.
[10]李志雄,高旭.地震非均匀度的研究及在强震中期预报中的应用[J].地震,1994,14(6):11-18.
[11]王晓青,陈学忠,李志雄,等.地震前兆群体空间非均匀性指标CV值研究[J].中国地震,1999,15(3):200-209.
[12]陈学忠,郭祥云,李艳娥.首都圈地区小震活动月频次分布特征[J].地震,2007,27(4):36-42.
[13]陈学忠,王晓青,李志雄,等.强震前短临地震前兆时空分布非均匀性变化特征[J].地震学报,2000,22(1):27-34.
[14]苏有锦,李永莉,李忠华,等.川滇地区区域地震目录完整性最小震级分析[J].地震研究,2003,26(增刊):10-16.
[15]Stephans M A.Use of the Kol mogorov-Smirnov,Cram啨rvon Mises and related statistics without ex-tensive tables[J].J Roy Statist Soc Ser,1970,B32:115-122.
[2]张培震,徐锡伟,闻学泽,等.2008年汶川8.0级地震发震断裂的滑动速率、复发周期和构造成因[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(4):166-172.
[3]万天丰.汶川8级地震的形成机理与中国大陆近期地震概况[J].自然杂志,2008,3:2-6.
[4]赵祎喆,吴忠良,蒋长胜,等.用地震资料估计的龙门山断裂带深部形变及其对于汶川地震成因的意义[J].地质学报,2008,82(12):1778-1787.
[5]陈章立,李志雄.严重的挫折重要的启示—汶川8.0级地震引发的对地震预测研究的某些科学思考[J].地震,2009,29(1):182-191.
[6]刘杰,郭铁栓,杨立明,等.汶川8.0级地震前地震趋势分析意见的回顾[J].地震,2009,29(1):40-52.
[7]梅世蓉,薛艳,宋治平.汶川8.0级与昆仑山口西8.1级地震前地震活动异常特征与启示[J].地震,2009,29(1):1-21.
[8]张致伟,程万正,阮强,等.汶川8.0级地震前龙门山断裂带的地震活动性和构造应力场特征[J].地震学报,2009,31(2):117-127.
[9]Huang Q.Seismicity changes prior to theMS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan,China[J].Geo-phys Res Lett,2008,35,L23308,doi:10.1029/2008GL036270.
[10]李志雄,高旭.地震非均匀度的研究及在强震中期预报中的应用[J].地震,1994,14(6):11-18.
[11]王晓青,陈学忠,李志雄,等.地震前兆群体空间非均匀性指标CV值研究[J].中国地震,1999,15(3):200-209.
[12]陈学忠,郭祥云,李艳娥.首都圈地区小震活动月频次分布特征[J].地震,2007,27(4):36-42.
[13]陈学忠,王晓青,李志雄,等.强震前短临地震前兆时空分布非均匀性变化特征[J].地震学报,2000,22(1):27-34.
[14]苏有锦,李永莉,李忠华,等.川滇地区区域地震目录完整性最小震级分析[J].地震研究,2003,26(增刊):10-16.
[15]Stephans M A.Use of the Kol mogorov-Smirnov,Cram啨rvon Mises and related statistics without ex-tensive tables[J].J Roy Statist Soc Ser,1970,B32:115-122.
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