大柴旦6.6级地震前的地震拟合相关系数异常分析
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摘要
运用地震拟合优度的计算公式,首先确定了对异常反映最为明显的计算参数,接着对2008年11月10日大柴旦6.6级地震震中(37.55°N,95.80°E)附近3°×3°范围内的地震拟合相关系数进行了计算分析。结果表明,在周边300km范围内的ML≥5.5级地震前一段时间内,该区域的地震拟合相关系数的计算结果都有明显的下降异常反映,特别是大柴旦6.6级地震前的异常反应幅度明显,形态清晰。因此,该区域的地震拟合相关系数可以作为周边ML≥5.5级地震中期预报的依据之一。
Using the formula of earthquake optimization mimesis,the authors have determined the precursory anomalous parameters,and calculated the optimization mimesis of Dacaidan Ms 6.6 earthquake in the epicentral 3°×3° area.And the results show that the calculation presented the obvious descending anomalies in neighboring region of 300km before ML≥5.5 earthquakes,especially before Dacaidan Ms6.6 earthquake.So the curves of earthquake optimization mimesis may be regarded as one of the metaphase prediction index.
Using the formula of earthquake optimization mimesis,the authors have determined the precursory anomalous parameters,and calculated the optimization mimesis of Dacaidan Ms 6.6 earthquake in the epicentral 3°×3° area.And the results show that the calculation presented the obvious descending anomalies in neighboring region of 300km before ML≥5.5 earthquakes,especially before Dacaidan Ms6.6 earthquake.So the curves of earthquake optimization mimesis may be regarded as one of the metaphase prediction index.
引文
[1]李志雄,张国民,傅征样,等.中强地震前地震频次—震级关系式拟合优度变化的研究[J].中国地震,1996,12(3):229-236.
[2]陆远忠,李胜乐,邓志辉,等.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社,2002:119-120.
[3]张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰,等.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社,2001:60-61.
[2]陆远忠,李胜乐,邓志辉,等.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社,2002:119-120.
[3]张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰,等.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社,2001:60-61.
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