“4·20”芦山地震次生地质灾害预测评价
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摘要
利用汶川地震次生地质敏感性评价模型,以距发震断层的距离、地形坡度、地层岩性、距离水系的距离、海拔高度、PGA为评价因子,对"4.20"芦山地震地质灾害的空间分布进行了快速预测,为野外调查工作提供参考。预测结果显示芦山地震次生地质灾害敏感性高的区域主要是芦山、宝兴、天全、雅安、荥经等县市的山区,并主要集中分布于发震断层附近的芦山县大川镇、宝盛乡、太平镇、双石镇、宝兴县灵关镇、天全县小河乡等区域。
Based on the susceptibility evaluation model of the co-seismic geohazards in the Wenchuan earthquake,this paper adopts 6 influencing factors including the distance from the seismic fault,topographic slope,lithology,the distance from river system,elevation and PGA to make a fast prediction for the spatial distribution of geohazards triggered by the "4·20" Lushan earthquake.The preliminary results suggest that the zones with high susceptibility of co-seismic geohzards are mainly distributed over the rural areas of some counties and cities including Lushan,Baoxing,Tianquan,Ya'an,Yingjing and Qionglai in Sichuan Province,and concentrate in the areas near the seismic fault,that is,the front Longmenshan fault,including Dachuan town,Baosheng village and Shuangshi town of Lushan County,Lingguan town of Baoxing County,and Xiaohe town of Tianquan County.
Based on the susceptibility evaluation model of the co-seismic geohazards in the Wenchuan earthquake,this paper adopts 6 influencing factors including the distance from the seismic fault,topographic slope,lithology,the distance from river system,elevation and PGA to make a fast prediction for the spatial distribution of geohazards triggered by the "4·20" Lushan earthquake.The preliminary results suggest that the zones with high susceptibility of co-seismic geohzards are mainly distributed over the rural areas of some counties and cities including Lushan,Baoxing,Tianquan,Ya'an,Yingjing and Qionglai in Sichuan Province,and concentrate in the areas near the seismic fault,that is,the front Longmenshan fault,including Dachuan town,Baosheng village and Shuangshi town of Lushan County,Lingguan town of Baoxing County,and Xiaohe town of Tianquan County.
引文
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[11]Li W L,Huang R Q,Tang C,et al.Co-seismiclandslide inventory and susceptibility mapping in the2008Wenchuan earthquake disaster area,China[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2013,10(3):339-354.
[12]李为乐.我室快速绘制雅安芦山地震次生地质灾害空间分布预测系列图件[EB/OL].(2013-04-22).http://www.sklgp.com/default.aspx?id=9&subid=2&newsid=616.Li W L.The rapid prediction maps of the geo-hazards triggered by the Lushan earthquake Yaan,China[EB/OL].(2013-04-22).http://www.sklgp.com/default.aspx?id=9&subid=2&newsid=616.(In Chinese)
[13]中国地震局.中国地震局发布四川省芦山“4.20”7.0级强烈地震烈度图[EB/OL].(2013-04-25).http://www.cea.gov.cn/publish/dizhenj/464/478/20130425153642550719811/index.html.China Seismological Bureau.The seismic intensitymap of the Apr.20,2013,Lushan Earthquake[EB/OL].(2013-04-25).http://www.cea.gov.cn/publish/dizhenj/464/478/20130425153642550719811/index.html.(In Chinese)
[14]Keefer D K.Landslides caused by earthquakes[J].Geological Society of America Bulletin,1984,95:406-421.
[15]黄润秋,李为乐.汶川地震触发崩塌滑坡数量及其密度特征分析[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2009,20(3):1-7.Huang R Q,Li W L.Analysis of the number anddensity of landslides triggered by the 2008 Wen-chuan Earthquake,China[J].Journal of GeologicalHazards and Environment Preservation,2009,20(3):1-7.(In Chinese)
[16]四川省测绘地理信息局.我局通过对震后航拍影像解译获取4月29日最新灾害点数据[EB/OL].(2013-05-03).http://www.scbsm.com/cgxx/chyw/8450.htm.Sichuan Bureau of Surveying and Geographic Infor-mation.New interpretation result of co-seismic land-slides triggered by the Lushan earthquake until April29,2013[EB/OL].(2013-05-03).http://www.scbsm.com/cgxx/chyw/8450.htm.(In Chinese)
[17]Gorum T,Fan X M,Westen C J,et al.Distribu-tion pattern of earthquake-induced landslides trig-gered by the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Geomorphology,2011,133(3/4):152-167.
[18]Xu Q,Zhang S,Li W L.Spatial distribution oflarge-scale landslides induced by the 5.12WenchuanEarthquake[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2011,8:246-260.
[19]许强,李为乐.汶川地震诱发滑坡方向效应研究[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2010,42(S1):7-14.Xu Q,Li W L.Study on the direction effects oflandslides triggered by Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal of Sichuan University(Engineering ScienceEdition),2010,42(S1):7-14.(In Chinese)
[2]王卫民,郝金来,姚振兴.2013年4月20日四川雅安芦山6.7级地震震源破裂过程反演初步结果[EB/OL].(2013-04-20).http://www.igg.cas.cn/xwzx/zhxw/201304/t20130420_3823903.html.Wang W M,He J L,Yao Z X.Preliminary result forrupture process of Apr.20,2013,Mw6.7 Earth-quake,Lushan,Yaan,China[EB/OL].(2013-04-20).http://www.igg.cas.cn/xwzx/zhxw/201304/t20130420_3823903.html.(In Chinese)
[3]中国地震局.四川省芦山“4.20”7.0级地震断层破裂长度约40公里,最大滑动量达1.6米[EB/OL].(2013-04-23).http://www.cea.gov.cn/publish/dizhenj/468/553/100342/100343/20130423205445248545384/index.html.China Seismological Bureau.The fault rupture of theApr.20,2013,Lushan Earthquake is about 40kmand the maximum displacement is 1.6m[EB/OL].(2013-04-23).http://www.cea.gov.cn/publish/dizhenj/468/553/100342/100343/20130423205445248545384/index.html.(In Chinese)
[4]中国地震局.四川省芦山“4.20”7.0级强烈地震共记录到余震5086次[EB/OL].(2013-04-26).ht-tp://www.eqsc.gov.cn/zt/ljysdzzt_2191/yztj/201304/t20130426_26030.html.China Seismological Bureau.There are 5084recordedaftershocks after the Apr.20,2013,Ms 7.0LushanEarthquake[EB/OL].(2013-04-26).http://www.eqsc.gov.cn/zt/ljysdzzt_2191/yztj/201304/t20130426_26030.html.(In Chinese)
[5]国务院新闻办公室.国新办举行四川芦山“4.20”7.0级强烈地震灾情及抗震救灾情况新闻发布会[EB/OL].(2013-04-26).http://www.eqsc.gov.cn/zt/ljysdzzt_2191/zhbd/201304/t20130426_26027.html.Chinese Information Office of the State Council.Thepress conference of 4.20 Ms 7.0Lusan Earthquakeholed by Chinese Information Office of the StateCouncil[EB/OL].(2013-04-26).http://www.eqsc.gov.cn/zt/ljysdzzt_2191/zhbd/201304/t20130426_26027.html.(In Chinese)
[6]中国科学院.中科院发布芦山地震震源破裂过程反演初步结果[EB/OL].(2013-04-24).http://www.stdaily.com/special/content/2013-04/24/content_596813.htm.Chinese Academy of Sciences.The preliminary re-sults of the fault rupture process inversion[EB/OL].(2013-04-24).http://www.stdaily.com/special/content/2013-04/24/content_596813.htm.(In Chi-nese)
[7]黄润秋,李为乐.汶川大地震触发地质灾害的断层效应分析[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1):19-28.Huang R Q,Li W L.Fault effect analysis of geo-hazards triggered by Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Jour-nal of Engineering Geology,2009,17(1):19-28.(In Chinese)
[8]Huang R Q,Li W L.Analysis of the geo-hazardstriggered by the 12May 2008Wenchuan Earthquake,China[J].Bull of Engineering Geology and the Envi-ronment,2009,68:363-371.
[9]Huang R Q,Li W L.Development and distributionof geohazards triggered by the 5.12Wenchuan Earth-quake in China[J].Science in China Series E-Technological Sciences,2009,52(4):810-19.
[10]Li W L,Huang R Q,Xu Q.GIS-based logistic re-gression for landslide susceptibility mapping of the2008 Wenchuan earthquake region,China[C]//Landslides and Engineered Slopes:Protecting Socie-ty through Improved Understanding.London:Tay-lor&Francis Group,2012:1839-1844.
[11]Li W L,Huang R Q,Tang C,et al.Co-seismiclandslide inventory and susceptibility mapping in the2008Wenchuan earthquake disaster area,China[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2013,10(3):339-354.
[12]李为乐.我室快速绘制雅安芦山地震次生地质灾害空间分布预测系列图件[EB/OL].(2013-04-22).http://www.sklgp.com/default.aspx?id=9&subid=2&newsid=616.Li W L.The rapid prediction maps of the geo-hazards triggered by the Lushan earthquake Yaan,China[EB/OL].(2013-04-22).http://www.sklgp.com/default.aspx?id=9&subid=2&newsid=616.(In Chinese)
[13]中国地震局.中国地震局发布四川省芦山“4.20”7.0级强烈地震烈度图[EB/OL].(2013-04-25).http://www.cea.gov.cn/publish/dizhenj/464/478/20130425153642550719811/index.html.China Seismological Bureau.The seismic intensitymap of the Apr.20,2013,Lushan Earthquake[EB/OL].(2013-04-25).http://www.cea.gov.cn/publish/dizhenj/464/478/20130425153642550719811/index.html.(In Chinese)
[14]Keefer D K.Landslides caused by earthquakes[J].Geological Society of America Bulletin,1984,95:406-421.
[15]黄润秋,李为乐.汶川地震触发崩塌滑坡数量及其密度特征分析[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2009,20(3):1-7.Huang R Q,Li W L.Analysis of the number anddensity of landslides triggered by the 2008 Wen-chuan Earthquake,China[J].Journal of GeologicalHazards and Environment Preservation,2009,20(3):1-7.(In Chinese)
[16]四川省测绘地理信息局.我局通过对震后航拍影像解译获取4月29日最新灾害点数据[EB/OL].(2013-05-03).http://www.scbsm.com/cgxx/chyw/8450.htm.Sichuan Bureau of Surveying and Geographic Infor-mation.New interpretation result of co-seismic land-slides triggered by the Lushan earthquake until April29,2013[EB/OL].(2013-05-03).http://www.scbsm.com/cgxx/chyw/8450.htm.(In Chinese)
[17]Gorum T,Fan X M,Westen C J,et al.Distribu-tion pattern of earthquake-induced landslides trig-gered by the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Geomorphology,2011,133(3/4):152-167.
[18]Xu Q,Zhang S,Li W L.Spatial distribution oflarge-scale landslides induced by the 5.12WenchuanEarthquake[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2011,8:246-260.
[19]许强,李为乐.汶川地震诱发滑坡方向效应研究[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2010,42(S1):7-14.Xu Q,Li W L.Study on the direction effects oflandslides triggered by Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal of Sichuan University(Engineering ScienceEdition),2010,42(S1):7-14.(In Chinese)
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