城市地震预警误报的社会影响与措施研究
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摘要
通过对国内外有关地震预警、震时人们心理和行为的文献和试验研究成果的综合分析,结合我国的实际情况,当城市地震预警系统出现误报后,对于社会可能产生的负面影响和潜在的积极影响进行了讨论,并提出相应的措施以减小误报可能产生的负面影响。
The documents and research results of the early warning of urban earthquake at home and abroad,and the characteristics of psychological and behavior response when an earthquake occurs are analyzed comprehensively.In view of the present situation in China,we discuss the possible negative impacts and potentially positive one on the society in case of the early-warning system of urban earthquake generating false alarms.Finally,we put forward the countermeasures to reduce the possible negative impacts.
The documents and research results of the early warning of urban earthquake at home and abroad,and the characteristics of psychological and behavior response when an earthquake occurs are analyzed comprehensively.In view of the present situation in China,we discuss the possible negative impacts and potentially positive one on the society in case of the early-warning system of urban earthquake generating false alarms.Finally,we put forward the countermeasures to reduce the possible negative impacts.
引文
福建省地震局.国家科技支撑计划“地震预警与烈度速报系统的研究与示范应用”项目正式启动[EB/OL].(2010-03-08)[2010-11-01].http://www.cea.gov.cn/manage/html/8a8587881632fa5c0116674a018300cf/_content/10_03/08/1268041440735.html.
郭一娜.日本强震速报系统显威力,要和地震波赛跑[EB/OL].(2008-06-16)[2010-11-01].http://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/kong/news/2008/06-16/1282889.shtml.
蒋长胜,姚雪绒.2006.地震预警技术研究中的参考文献[J].国际地震动态,(12):6-14.
金星,杨文东,李山有,等.2007.一种新地震定位方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,27(2):20-25.
李红梅,王立军,马凤霞,等.2010.美国“未雨绸缪(Ready)”项目及其对我国防震减灾宣传的启示[J].国际地震动态,(11):12-18.
李山有,金星,马强,等.2004.地震预警系统与智能应急控制系统研究[J].世界地震工程,20(4):21-26.
廖旭,黄河.2002.企业地震预警系统应用研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,22(6):142-149.
刘更才.2001.城市地震时人的心理反应与应急对策[J].灾害学,16(4):72-76.
刘林,阎贵平,辛学忠.2002.京沪高速铁路地震预警系统的方案及关键参数研究[J].中国安全科学学报,12(4):75-79.
钱钢.汶川地震与地震预警初探[EB/OL].(2008-12-08)[2010-11-01].http://view.news.qq.com/a/20081208/000025.htm.
修济刚,胡平,杨国宾,等.2006.地震应急避难场所的规划建设与城市防灾[J].防灾技术高等专科学校学报,8(1):1-5.
徐硕.2006.地震预警关键技术概述[J].地震研究,29(增刊):504-508.
姚迪.2009.当前地震应急管理宣传教育对策研究[J].国际地震动态,(6):15-18.
姚国干,郭履灿.1982.大地震纵波的预警特征[J].地震研究,5(2):163-169.
姚攀峰.2009.农村单层砌体房屋中的地震逃生方法[J].国际地震动态,(3):37-44.
周彦文,刘希强,李铂,等.2010.基于单台P波记录的快速自动地震定位方法研究[J].地震研究,33(2):183-188.
朱福祥,郭迅,李山有,等.2002.重大工程地震预警初步研究[J].世界地震工程,18(3):32-36.
左玉玲.2010.加州地震预警系统未来数年内建成[J].国际地震动态,(1):5.
Allen R M,Gasparini P,Kamigaichi O,et al.2009.The status of earth-quake early warning around the world:an introductory overview[J].Seismological Reserch Letters,80(5):682-693.
Atwood L E,Major A M.1998.Exploring the“cry wolf”hypothesis[J].International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters,(16):279-302.
Baker E J1991.Hurricane evacuation behavior[J].International Journalof Mass Emergencies and Disasters,(9):287-310.
Breznitz S.1984.Cry Wolf:The psychology of false alarms[R].Hills-dale,NJ:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
Duval T,Mulilis J-P.1999.A person-relative-to-event(PrE)ap-proach to negative threat appeals and earthquake preparedness:Afield study[J].Journal of Applied Social Psychology,29(3):495-516.
Espinosa-Aranda J M,Cuellar A,Garcia A,et al.2009.Evolution of thrmexican seismic slert system(SASMEX)[J].Seismological ResrchLetters,80(5):694-706.
Goltz J D,Flores P J.1997.Real-time earthquake early warning andpublic policy:A report on Mexico City's Sistema de Alerta Sismica[J].Seismological Research Letters,68(5):727-733.
Gdtz J D.2002.TriNet studies&planning activities in real-time earth-quake early warning(TASK4REPORT)[EB/OL].(2001-02-11)[2010-11-01].http://www.cisn.org/docs/Goltz.Task4.Report.doc.
Kamigaichi O,Saito M,Doi K,et al.2009.Earthquake early warning injapan:Warning the general public and future prospects[J].Seismo-logical Reserch Letters,80(5):717-726.
Mulilis J-P,Duval T S.1995.Negative threat appeals and earthquakepreparedness:A person-relative-to-event(PrE)model of copingwith threat[J].Journal of Applied Social Psychology,25(15):1319-1339.
Riad J K,Norris F.1998.Hurricane threat and evacuation intentions:Ananalysis of risk perception,preparedness,social influences,and re-sources[R].Newark,DE:Disaster Research Center,University ofDelaware.Preliminary paper#271.
Shoaf K,Bourque L.TriNet studies&planning activities in real-timeearthquake early warning(TASK1REPORT)[EB/OL].(2001-03)[2010-11-01].http://www.cisn.org/docs/Goltz.Task1.Report.doc.
Sorensen J H.2000.Hazard warning systems:Review of20years of pro-gress[J].Natural Hazards Review,1(2):119-125.
Suárez G,Novelo D,Mangsilla E.2009.Performance evaluation of theseismic alert system(SAS)in Mexico city:A seismological and a so-cial perspective[J].Seismological Reserch Letters,80(5):707-716.
Tierney K.TriNet studies&planning activities in real-time earthquakeearly warning(TASK2REPORT)[EB/OL].(2000-11-30)[2010-11-01].http://www.cisn.org/docs/Goltz.Task2.Report.pdf.
郭一娜.日本强震速报系统显威力,要和地震波赛跑[EB/OL].(2008-06-16)[2010-11-01].http://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/kong/news/2008/06-16/1282889.shtml.
蒋长胜,姚雪绒.2006.地震预警技术研究中的参考文献[J].国际地震动态,(12):6-14.
金星,杨文东,李山有,等.2007.一种新地震定位方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,27(2):20-25.
李红梅,王立军,马凤霞,等.2010.美国“未雨绸缪(Ready)”项目及其对我国防震减灾宣传的启示[J].国际地震动态,(11):12-18.
李山有,金星,马强,等.2004.地震预警系统与智能应急控制系统研究[J].世界地震工程,20(4):21-26.
廖旭,黄河.2002.企业地震预警系统应用研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,22(6):142-149.
刘更才.2001.城市地震时人的心理反应与应急对策[J].灾害学,16(4):72-76.
刘林,阎贵平,辛学忠.2002.京沪高速铁路地震预警系统的方案及关键参数研究[J].中国安全科学学报,12(4):75-79.
钱钢.汶川地震与地震预警初探[EB/OL].(2008-12-08)[2010-11-01].http://view.news.qq.com/a/20081208/000025.htm.
修济刚,胡平,杨国宾,等.2006.地震应急避难场所的规划建设与城市防灾[J].防灾技术高等专科学校学报,8(1):1-5.
徐硕.2006.地震预警关键技术概述[J].地震研究,29(增刊):504-508.
姚迪.2009.当前地震应急管理宣传教育对策研究[J].国际地震动态,(6):15-18.
姚国干,郭履灿.1982.大地震纵波的预警特征[J].地震研究,5(2):163-169.
姚攀峰.2009.农村单层砌体房屋中的地震逃生方法[J].国际地震动态,(3):37-44.
周彦文,刘希强,李铂,等.2010.基于单台P波记录的快速自动地震定位方法研究[J].地震研究,33(2):183-188.
朱福祥,郭迅,李山有,等.2002.重大工程地震预警初步研究[J].世界地震工程,18(3):32-36.
左玉玲.2010.加州地震预警系统未来数年内建成[J].国际地震动态,(1):5.
Allen R M,Gasparini P,Kamigaichi O,et al.2009.The status of earth-quake early warning around the world:an introductory overview[J].Seismological Reserch Letters,80(5):682-693.
Atwood L E,Major A M.1998.Exploring the“cry wolf”hypothesis[J].International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters,(16):279-302.
Baker E J1991.Hurricane evacuation behavior[J].International Journalof Mass Emergencies and Disasters,(9):287-310.
Breznitz S.1984.Cry Wolf:The psychology of false alarms[R].Hills-dale,NJ:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
Duval T,Mulilis J-P.1999.A person-relative-to-event(PrE)ap-proach to negative threat appeals and earthquake preparedness:Afield study[J].Journal of Applied Social Psychology,29(3):495-516.
Espinosa-Aranda J M,Cuellar A,Garcia A,et al.2009.Evolution of thrmexican seismic slert system(SASMEX)[J].Seismological ResrchLetters,80(5):694-706.
Goltz J D,Flores P J.1997.Real-time earthquake early warning andpublic policy:A report on Mexico City's Sistema de Alerta Sismica[J].Seismological Research Letters,68(5):727-733.
Gdtz J D.2002.TriNet studies&planning activities in real-time earth-quake early warning(TASK4REPORT)[EB/OL].(2001-02-11)[2010-11-01].http://www.cisn.org/docs/Goltz.Task4.Report.doc.
Kamigaichi O,Saito M,Doi K,et al.2009.Earthquake early warning injapan:Warning the general public and future prospects[J].Seismo-logical Reserch Letters,80(5):717-726.
Mulilis J-P,Duval T S.1995.Negative threat appeals and earthquakepreparedness:A person-relative-to-event(PrE)model of copingwith threat[J].Journal of Applied Social Psychology,25(15):1319-1339.
Riad J K,Norris F.1998.Hurricane threat and evacuation intentions:Ananalysis of risk perception,preparedness,social influences,and re-sources[R].Newark,DE:Disaster Research Center,University ofDelaware.Preliminary paper#271.
Shoaf K,Bourque L.TriNet studies&planning activities in real-timeearthquake early warning(TASK1REPORT)[EB/OL].(2001-03)[2010-11-01].http://www.cisn.org/docs/Goltz.Task1.Report.doc.
Sorensen J H.2000.Hazard warning systems:Review of20years of pro-gress[J].Natural Hazards Review,1(2):119-125.
Suárez G,Novelo D,Mangsilla E.2009.Performance evaluation of theseismic alert system(SAS)in Mexico city:A seismological and a so-cial perspective[J].Seismological Reserch Letters,80(5):707-716.
Tierney K.TriNet studies&planning activities in real-time earthquakeearly warning(TASK2REPORT)[EB/OL].(2000-11-30)[2010-11-01].http://www.cisn.org/docs/Goltz.Task2.Report.pdf.
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