地下水动态多尺度地震预测技术初探
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摘要
针对华北地区40多年的地下水动态资料,分别依据从月均值、日值、分钟值等不同尺度资料中提取的具有可重复的代表不同时间特征的异常信息,进行多级地震预测研究。研究结果表明,华北中强地震之前区域地下水存在10年准周期特征,周期的上升和高值段可作为长趋势异常变化,在上升(或高值)趋势变化背景上存在3年左右的中短期下降异常变化,在水位下降中短期异常背景上存在震前1天到几个月形态各异的复杂的短临异常形态。根据这些不同时间尺度的明显的重现异常变化进行强震多尺度预测研究。
On basis of dynamic groundwater data in Northern China during the past 40 years,repeatability abnormal information represented characteristic of different time scales are extracted from data of monthly mean,daily mean and minutely mean respectively for the studying of multi-level earthquake prediction.The results show that before strong earthquakes,the groundwater in Northern China has a 10-year quasi period;the raising and high value segment of the quasi period may be a long trend abnormal change,in the raising and high value segment there are medium-short 3-year declining abnormal changes,short and impending complex abnormality in different forms appears form 1 day to several months.These obvious repeatable abnormalities in different time scales can be used for multi-level earthquake prediction to strong earthquakes.
On basis of dynamic groundwater data in Northern China during the past 40 years,repeatability abnormal information represented characteristic of different time scales are extracted from data of monthly mean,daily mean and minutely mean respectively for the studying of multi-level earthquake prediction.The results show that before strong earthquakes,the groundwater in Northern China has a 10-year quasi period;the raising and high value segment of the quasi period may be a long trend abnormal change,in the raising and high value segment there are medium-short 3-year declining abnormal changes,short and impending complex abnormality in different forms appears form 1 day to several months.These obvious repeatable abnormalities in different time scales can be used for multi-level earthquake prediction to strong earthquakes.
引文
[1]张素欣,王吉易,郑云贞.地下水动态的最大熵谱分析[J].华北地震科学,1998,16(4),71-75.
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[4]张素欣,张子广,任晓霞,等.识别地下水超采区井水位异常性质的理论与方法[J].地震地质,2007,29(1):114-121.
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[9]张子广,张素欣,郑云贞,等.山西水2和岳42井水位及记震能力分析[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(3):262-266.
[2]刘蒲雄.前兆地震活动图象及其在地震预报中的作用[J].中国地震,1993,9(2):112-120.
[3]张国民,耿鲁明,石耀霖.中国大陆强震轮回活动的计算机模型研究[J].中国地震,1993,9(1):20-32.
[4]张素欣,张子广,任晓霞,等.识别地下水超采区井水位异常性质的理论与方法[J].地震地质,2007,29(1):114-121.
[5]陆远忠,李胜乐,邓志辉,等.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社,2002.
[6]M.E.阿利托夫斯基,A.A.康若波梁采夫。地下水动态研究方法指南[M].北京:地质出版社,1956.
[7]张素欣,张子广,孙佩卿,等.丰南井水位下降非前兆异常分析[J].地震研究,2006,29(增刊):529-533.
[8]赵利飞,尹京苑.地下水前兆敏感水力学条件的数值模拟研究[J].西北地震学报,2000,22(3):306-310.
[9]张子广,张素欣,郑云贞,等.山西水2和岳42井水位及记震能力分析[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(3):262-266.
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