基于Weibull分布地震信息熵对中国大陆西部强震活动状态的分析
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摘要
在强震活动轮回和期幕划分等研究中,强震事件的样本数量往往影响并限制了信度和结果外推,特别是强震活动较弱时期对状态的判断将出现较大的不确定性。强震孕育过程中的中小地震活动状态实际上反映了强震活动的规律性。本文采用基于Weibull分布的中小地震信息熵对中国大陆西部的强震活动状态进行分析。结果显示,西部地区目前处在低熵值时段,可能进入新一轮强震活跃期且主体活动区为青藏地块区。在熵值扫描条件相同的情况下,Ⅰ级活动地块内不同Ⅱ级块体的信息熵值时序曲线相似性较大,不同Ⅰ级构造块体内的Ⅱ级块体信息熵值时序曲线差别较大。说明该方法基于统计物理分析,能够反映区域构造特征并克服期幕划分样本数量不足的缺点。
In the study of strong earthquake cycling and periodicity,the sample size of strong events often influence and even limit the reliability and result extrapolation,especially when strong earthquake activity is low,there will be large uncertainty in state judgement.Small-moderate earthquake activity in the seismogenic process of strong earthquakes actually reflects the characteristics of strong earthquake activity.In this article,we analyse the state of strong earthquake activity based on seismic information entropy of weibull distribution for west China continent.The result shows that the entropy value in the west area is low at present,which may mean that the west area is going to enter a new active period of strong earthquakes and the risk site may be in the Qingzang tectonic block.In the same scanning condition of seismic information entropy,the time-curves of different second grade blocks in each first grade block are highly similar,but have large difference among second grade blocks in different first grade blocks.Based on statistical physics analysis,this method can reflect the regional tectonic characteristics and overcome the disadvantage of lack of sample size in division of periodicity.
In the study of strong earthquake cycling and periodicity,the sample size of strong events often influence and even limit the reliability and result extrapolation,especially when strong earthquake activity is low,there will be large uncertainty in state judgement.Small-moderate earthquake activity in the seismogenic process of strong earthquakes actually reflects the characteristics of strong earthquake activity.In this article,we analyse the state of strong earthquake activity based on seismic information entropy of weibull distribution for west China continent.The result shows that the entropy value in the west area is low at present,which may mean that the west area is going to enter a new active period of strong earthquakes and the risk site may be in the Qingzang tectonic block.In the same scanning condition of seismic information entropy,the time-curves of different second grade blocks in each first grade block are highly similar,but have large difference among second grade blocks in different first grade blocks.Based on statistical physics analysis,this method can reflect the regional tectonic characteristics and overcome the disadvantage of lack of sample size in division of periodicity.
引文
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[25]孙其政,吴书贵.中国地震监测预报40年(1966—2006)[M].北京:地震出版社,2007.172-182.
[2]马宗晋,博征祥,张郢珍,等.1966—1976年中国九大地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
[3]洪时中.最优分割在地震分期中的应用[J].西北地震学报,1984,6(1):49-57.
[4]邱竞男,高旭.关于本世纪我国地震活动阶段性的讨论[J].地震,1986,6(1):41-47.
[5]张国民.我国大陆强震活动的韵律性特征[J].地震地质,1987,9(2):27-37.
[6]傅征样,程燕.中国大陆近代幕式地震括动的某些特征[J].地震,1986,6(2):28-35.
[7]楚全芝.中国大陆主要强震断裂带超长地震活动期的划分和对比[J].中国地震,1998,14(3):94-99.
[8]马宏生,邵志刚,周龙泉,等.中国大陆7级地震活动状态分析[J].地震,2008,28(3):8-13.
[9]Schorlemmer D,Wiemer S,Wyss M.Variations in earthquake-size distribution across differentstress regimes[J].Nature,2005,437:539-542.
[10]Wiemer S,Wyss M.Minimum magnitude of complete reporting in earthquake catalogs:examplesfrom Alaska,the Western United States,and Japan[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,2000,90:859-869.
[11]Li Q,Nyland E.Is the dynamics of the litosphere chaotic?,In:Nonlinear dynamics and predictabili-ty of geophysical phenomena,edited by Newman W I,Gabrielov A,Turcotte D L[J].GeophysicalMonograph 83,IUGG,1994,18:37-41.
[12]朱传镇,王林瑛.地震活动熵值及其在地震危险性估计中的应用[J].地震,1988,2:1-5.
[13]Harte D,Vere-Jones D.The entropy score and its uses in earthquake forecasting[J].Pure appl Geo-phys,2005,162(6-7):1 229-1 253.
[14]Sibgatulin V G,Peretokin S A,Khlebopros R G.Fundamental peculiarities of the entropy model ofenergy processes in seismic areas[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2007,14(1):222-225.
[15]Telesca L,Lapenna L,Lovallo M.Information entropy analysis of seismicity of Umbria-Marche re-gion(Central Italy)[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2004,4(5/6):691-694.
[16]Knopoff L,Aki K,Allen C R,et al.Earthquake Prediction:the Scientific Challenge[J].Colloqui-um Proceedings,Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,1996,93:3 719-3 837.
[17]Evans R.(eds.),Special Section-Assessment of Schemes for Earthquake Prediction[J].Geophys JInt,1997,131:413-533.
[18]Main I G,Al-Kindy F H.Entropy,energy,and proximity to criticality in global earthquake popula-tions[J].Geophys Res Lett,2002,29(7):1 121,doi:10.1029/2001GL014078.
[19]Shannon C E.A mathematical theory of commucation[J].Bell System Tech J,1948,27:379-423,623-656.
[20]Kolmogorov A N.Three approaches to the quantitative definition of information,Problems Inform[J].Transmission,1965,1:1-7.
[21]王炜,戴维乐,黄冰树.地震震级的统计分布及其地震强度因子Mf值在华北中强以上地震前的异常变化[J].中国地震,1994,10(2):95-110.
[22]范琦.Weibul1分布的信息熵在地震预报中的应用研究[J].西北地震学报,2003,25(2):125-130.
[23]张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2003,33(Sl):12-20.
[24]魏富胜,许忠淮,王淑辉,等.中国大陆地区的地震检测能力[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2009,30(5):26-33.
[25]孙其政,吴书贵.中国地震监测预报40年(1966—2006)[M].北京:地震出版社,2007.172-182.
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