全球地震早期预警研究综述
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摘要
近年来地震预警技术在国际上得到迅速的发展,并有成功预警且收到减灾实效的先例。本文系统介绍了地震早期预警的方法,包括波前探测、P波应用、现地预警和区域预警;介绍了地震早期预警系统在墨西哥、日本、土耳其、中国台湾和罗马尼亚等国家和地区的应用情况。还对地震预警中目前存在的问题和挑战以及远景进行了分析。
In recent years,the "earthquake early warning"(EEW) technology has been developed rapidly around the world,some cases show that EEW has successfully provided seismic early warning information and got earthquake disaster mitigation effectiveness.In this paper,the approaches of the EEW,including front wave detection,using the P wave,onsite warning and regional warning are introduced,and the applications of EEW in Mexico,Japan,Turkey,China Taiwan,Romania and other countries and region areas are introduced also.Some problems and challenge in the earthquake early warning,as well as its perspective are analyzed.
In recent years,the "earthquake early warning"(EEW) technology has been developed rapidly around the world,some cases show that EEW has successfully provided seismic early warning information and got earthquake disaster mitigation effectiveness.In this paper,the approaches of the EEW,including front wave detection,using the P wave,onsite warning and regional warning are introduced,and the applications of EEW in Mexico,Japan,Turkey,China Taiwan,Romania and other countries and region areas are introduced also.Some problems and challenge in the earthquake early warning,as well as its perspective are analyzed.
引文
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[15]Wu Y-M,H Kanamori.Experiment on an onsite early warn-ing method for the Taiwan early warning system[J].Bulletinof the Seismological Society of America,2005,95:347-353.
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[20]Zollo A,M Lancieri,S Nielsen.Earthquake magnitude esti-mation from peak amplitudes of very early seismic signals onstrong motion records[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33:L23312.
[21]Wu Y-M,H Kanamori.Development of an earthquake earlywarning system using real-time strong motion signals[J].Sensors,2008,8:1-9.
[22]Lancieri M,A Zollo.A Bayesian approach to the realtime es-timation of magnitude from the early P and S wave displace-ment peaks[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2008,113:B12302,doi:10.1029/2007JB005386.
[23]Kamigaichi O.JMA earthquake early warning[J].Journal ofthe Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering,2004,4:134-137.
[24]Odaka T,K Ashiya,S Tsukada,et al.A new method ofquickly estimating epicentral distance and magnitude from asingle seismic record[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Societyof America,2003,93:526-532.
[25]Cua G,T Heaton.The Virtual Seismologist(VS)method:ABayesian approach to earthquake early warning[A]∥PGasparini,G Manfredi,J Zschau,edit.Earthquake EarlyWarning Systems[G].Berlin and Heidelberg:Springer,2007:97-132.
[26]Bse M,F Wenzel,M Erdik.PreSEIS:A neural network-based approach to earthquake early warning for finite faults[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2008,98:366-382.
[27]Khler N,G Cua,F Wenzel,et al.Rapid source parameterestimations of southern California earthquakes using PreSEIS[J].Seismological Research Letters,2009,80(5):748-754.
[28]Cua G,M Fischer,T Heaton,et al.Real-time performanceof the Virtual Seismologist earthquake early warning algo-rithm in southern California[J].Seismological Research Let-ters,2009,80(5):740-747.
[29]Murphy S,S Nielsen.Estimating earthquake magnitude withearly arrivals:A test using dynamic and kinematic models[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2009,99:1-23.
[30]Zollo A,G Iannaccone,M Lancieri,et al.Earthquake earlywarning system in southern Italy:Methodologies and per-formance evaluation[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36:L00B07.
[31]Kamigaichi O,M Saito,K Doi,et al.Earthquake earlywarning in Japan:Warning the general public and futureprospects[J].Seismological Research Letters,2009,80(5):717-726.
[32]Olson E,R M Allen.The deterministic nature of earthquakerupture[J].Nature,2005,438:212-215.
[33]Lewis M A,Y Ben-Zion.Examination of scaling betweenearthquake magnitude and proposed early signals in P wave-forms from very near source stations in a South African goldmine[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2008,113:B09305.
[34]Rydelek P,S Horiuchi.Is earthquake rupture deterministic?[J].Nature,2006,442:5-6.
[35]Yamada T,S Ide.Limitation of the predominant-period es-timator for earthquake early warning and the initial rupture ofearthquakes[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of A-merica,2008,98:2739-2745.
[36]Yamada M,T Heaton,J Beck.Real-time estimation of faultrupture extent using near-source versus far-source classifi-cation[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2007,97:1890-1910.
[37]Nakamura Y,J Saita.UrEDAS,the earthquake warning sys-tem:Today and tomorrow[A]∥P Gasparini,G Manfredi,JZschau,efit.Earthquake Early Warning Systems[G].Berlinand Heidelberg:Springer,2007:249-282.
[38]Nakamura Y.Real-time information systems for hazards mit-igation[A]∥Proceedings of the 11th World Conference onEarthquake Engineering[G].1996:2134.
[39]Nakamura Y,J Saita.FREQL and AcCo for a quick responseto earthquakes[A]∥P Gasparini,G Manfredi,J Zschau,ed-it.Earthquake Early Warning Systems[G].Berlin and Hei-delberg:Springer,2007:307-324.
[40]Wu Y-M,H Kanamori.Exploring the feasibility of onsiteearthquake early warning using close-in records of the 2007Noto Hanto earthquake[J].Earth,Planets,and Space,2008,60:155-160.
[41]Bse M,E Hauksson,K Solanki,et al.A new trigger crite-rion for improved real-time performance of on-site earlywarning in southern California[J].Bulletin of the Seismologi-cal Society of America,2009,99:897-905.
[42]Espinosa-Aranda J M,A Cuellar,A Garcia,et al.Evolutionof the Mexican Seismic Alert System(SASMEX)[J].Seis-mological Research Letters,2009,80(5):694-706.
[43]Suárez G,D Novelo,E Mansilla.Performance evaluation ofthe seismic alert system(SAS)in Mexico City:A seismologicaland a social perspective[J].Seismological Research Letters,2009,80(5):707-714.
[44]Hoshiba M,O Kamigaichi,M Saito,et al.Earthquake earlywarning starts nationwide in Japan[J].Eos,Transactions,A-merican Geophysical Union,2008,89:73-80.
[45]Nakamura H,S Horiuchi,C Wu,et al.Evaluation of the re-al-time earthquake information system in Japan[J].Geo-physical Research Letters,2009,36:L00B01.
[46]Horiuchi S,H Negishi,K Abe,et al.An automatic process-ing system for broadcasting earthquake alarms[J].Bulletin ofthe Seismological Society of America,2005,95:708-718.
[47]Weber E,G Iannaccone,A Zollo,et al.Development andtesting of an advanced monitoring infrastructure(ISNET)forseismic early warning applications in the Campania region ofsouthern Italy[A]∥P Gasparini,G Manfredi,J Zschau,ed-it.Earthquake Early Warning Systems[G].Berlin and Hei-delberg:Springer,2007:325-341.
[48]Satriano C,A Lomax,A Zollo.Real-time evolutionaryearthquake location for seismic early warning[J].Bulletin ofthe Seismological Society of America,2008,98:1482-1494.
[49]Iervolino I,M Giorgio,C Galasso,et al.Uncertainty in earlywarning predictions of engineering ground motion parame-ters:What really matters?[J].Geophysical Research Let-ters,2009,36:L00B06.
[50]Crowell B W,Y Bock,M B Squibb.Demonstration of earth-quake early warning using total displacement waveforms fromreal-time GPS networks[J].Seismological Research Letters,2009,80(5):772-782.
[51]Bock Y,R Nikolaidis,P J De Jonge,et al.Instantaneous ge-odetic positioning at medium distances with the Global Posi-tioning System[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2000,105:28233-28253.
[52]Goltz J D,P J Flores.Real-time earthquake early warningand public policy:A report on Mexico City's Sistema de Aler-ta Sismica[J].Seismological Research Letters,1997,68:727-733.
[53]Okada Y,K Kasahara,S Hori,et al.Recent progress ofseismic observation networks in Japan-Hi-net,F-net,K-NET,KiK-net[J].Earth,Planets,and Space,2004,56:xv-xxviii.
[54]Horiuchi S,Y Horiuchi,S Yamamoto,et al.Home seis-mometer for earthquake early warning[J].Geophysical Re-search Letters,2009,36:L00B04.
[55]Erdik M,YFahjan,O Ozel,et al.Istanbul earthquake rapidresponse and early warning system[J].Bulletin of EarthquakeEngineering,2003,1:157-163.
[56]Wu Y-M,T-LTeng.A virtual subnetwork approach toearthquake early warning[J].Bulletin of the SeismologicalSociety of America,2002,92:2008-2018.
[57]Wenzel F,M Onescu,M Baur,et al.An early warning sys-tem for Bucharest[J].Seismological Research Letters,1999,70:161-169.
[58]Ionescu C,M Bse,F Wenzel,et al.An early warning sys-tem for deep Vrancea(Romania)earthquakes[A]∥P Gaspa-rini,G Manfredi,J Zschau,edit.Earthquake Early WarningSystems[G].Berlin and Heidelberg:Springer,2007:343-349.
[59]刘林,阎贵平,辛学忠.京沪高速铁路地震预警系统的方案及关键参数研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2002,12(4):75-79.
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