GM(1,1)-Markov模型在地震应急基础数据更新中的应用
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摘要
受灾地区的国民生产总值(GDP)数据是地震应急基础数据库中一类重要的基础数据,由于数据收集的周期较长,造成GDP数据的现势性差。利用灰色-马尔可夫模型(GM(1,1)-Markov模型),建立甘肃省县一级GDP增长模型,实现静态GDP基础数据在地震发生时的动态计算,使其接近于社会经济发展的实际情况;在实际数据未得到之前,本研究中得到的GDP数据可以作为应急数据库中相关基础数据更新的补充手段,或作为未来几年震害预测时的基础数据参考。
GDP in the disaster area of earthquake event is a fundamental and significant data in earthquake emergency basic database.Because of the long period and big investment for data collection and up-to-date state,a county level of GDP growth model of Gansu Province was set up by means of GM(1,1)-Markov model,and dynamic calculation was operated based on static data to better fit the actual situation.Before the real materials was obtained,the forecasting data achieved in this paper could be considered as not only the supplementary means for data updating in earthquake emergency basic database,but also a basic reference for earthquake damage prediction in future years.
GDP in the disaster area of earthquake event is a fundamental and significant data in earthquake emergency basic database.Because of the long period and big investment for data collection and up-to-date state,a county level of GDP growth model of Gansu Province was set up by means of GM(1,1)-Markov model,and dynamic calculation was operated based on static data to better fit the actual situation.Before the real materials was obtained,the forecasting data achieved in this paper could be considered as not only the supplementary means for data updating in earthquake emergency basic database,but also a basic reference for earthquake damage prediction in future years.
引文
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何少林,李佐唐,张苏平,等.甘肃省地震应急指挥技术系统设计与实现[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2007,28(5) :71-79．
姜立新,李志强,聂高众,等.中国地震应急指挥技术系统技术规程[M].北京:地震出版社,2005:9．
姜明辉,曹懿.深综指走势的GM-Markov链组合模型预测[J].统计与决策,2006,12:43-44．
刘思峰,邓聚龙.GM(1,1) 模型的适用范围[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000,20(5) :121-124．
刘思峰,郭天榜,党耀国,等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,1999．
罗党,刘思峰,党耀国.灰色模型GM(1,1) 优化[J].中国工程科学,2003,5(8) :50-53．
于洋,杨学斌,杜文.基于灰色-马尔可夫链改进力法的预测方法[J].统计与决策,2008,13:53-55．
邹长武,李祚泳,倪长健.GM(1,1) 的改进及其在经济发展预测总的应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2007,37(22) :1-5．
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