一种应用于地震预报的概率判断法
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摘要
从描述未来地震趋势的各种地震活动性指标入手，在求得各样本组判别函数的基础上，由贝叶斯模型计算了不同时间尺度的地震活动性参数对未来地震趋势的概率判断结果。结果表明，在华北地区，地震活动性指标可以较早地反映地震孕育过程，所以，对地震活动性指标进行跟踪研究是提高预报准确性的可行途径之一。同时，还用广义的马哈拉诺比斯统计量对结果进行检验，检验的结果证明选取的地震活动性参数可以作为前兆特征对未来的地震趋势作出估计。
From various seismicity factors to describe the future seismic tendency,the probabilistic judgement for future seismic risk has been obtained by the estimation of the seismicity parameters of different time period with Bayias model based on the determination of the judgement function for each samples group.The result indicates that the seismogenic process could be early shown by seismicity factors in North China.Therefore,it is one of the feasible way to improve the level of the earthquake prediction to follow the track and study of the seismicity factors.At the same time,the result has been examined with the generalized Mahalanobis statistic moment.It is proved by the examination that the future seismic tendency could be estimated by the seismicity parameters selected as the precursors.
From various seismicity factors to describe the future seismic tendency,the probabilistic judgement for future seismic risk has been obtained by the estimation of the seismicity parameters of different time period with Bayias model based on the determination of the judgement function for each samples group.The result indicates that the seismogenic process could be early shown by seismicity factors in North China.Therefore,it is one of the feasible way to improve the level of the earthquake prediction to follow the track and study of the seismicity factors.At the same time,the result has been examined with the generalized Mahalanobis statistic moment.It is proved by the examination that the future seismic tendency could be estimated by the seismicity parameters selected as the precursors.
引文
1潘恩沛，等．多元统计分析程序集．北京：原子能出版社，1984．2陈希孺著．数理统计引论．北京：科学出版社，1981．
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