使用灰色聚类方法评估长江三峡水库湖北不同库段水库诱发地震的震级上限
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摘要
利用150例水库诱发地震震例和532个国内大型水库资料,使用灰色聚类方法,按库深、库容、区域应力状态、断层活动性、岩性介质条件和地震活动背景等6个诱震因素,统计出相应的发震比例数,以此作为水库地震预测指标。再根据长江三峡水库坝址区、香溪河口及仙女山断裂带过江段、泄滩西和巴东及神龙溪两岸的6个独立的诱震因素,评估各段的水库诱发地震震级上限。计算结果表明长江三峡水库坝址区震级上限<3级,香溪河口及仙女山断裂带过江段4～5级,泄滩西<3级,巴东北岸及神龙溪两岸震级3～4级。并得到了长江三峡水库蓄水后实际地震情况的验证。
In this paper,a statistical analysis is made using the gray clustering method on the earthquake inducing factors,such as dam height,storage capacity,regional stress state,fault activity,lithology medium conditions and seismic activity background,based on a database of reservoir-induced earthquakes,which includes 150 reservoir-induced earthquake cases and 532 large reservoirs data. Corresponding earthquake occurrence ratios are obtained and used as predictors for reservoir-induced earthquakes. According to the six quake-inducing factors,assessment is made on the maximum magnitude of reservoir-induced earthquake for the Three Gorges Reservoir dam area,the bayou of Xiangxi stream and the cross-river section of the Xiannushan Fault zone,the west Xietan,Badong,and on both banks of Shenlong stream. The results show that the upper-limit of magnitude at dam area is less than magnitude 3,that at the bayou of Xiangxi stream and the cross-river section of Xiannushan Fault zone is between magnitude 4～5,that at west of Xietan is less than magnitude 3,and that at the northern bank of badong and on both banks of the Shenlong stream is between magnitude 3～4.The results have been validated by the actual reservoir-induced seismicity after the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir, with the ML 2 earthquake at Xiaoxikou 4 km far away from the dam of the Three Gorges Reservoir on February 6, 2009, the MS 4.1 earthquake at the bayou of Xiangxi stream and the cross―river section of the Xiannushan Fault zone on November 22,2008, the MS 2.6 earthquake at the west Xietan on August 22, 2009, and the ML 3.5 earthquake at the bank of Shenlong stream on December 14,2009.
In this paper,a statistical analysis is made using the gray clustering method on the earthquake inducing factors,such as dam height,storage capacity,regional stress state,fault activity,lithology medium conditions and seismic activity background,based on a database of reservoir-induced earthquakes,which includes 150 reservoir-induced earthquake cases and 532 large reservoirs data. Corresponding earthquake occurrence ratios are obtained and used as predictors for reservoir-induced earthquakes. According to the six quake-inducing factors,assessment is made on the maximum magnitude of reservoir-induced earthquake for the Three Gorges Reservoir dam area,the bayou of Xiangxi stream and the cross-river section of the Xiannushan Fault zone,the west Xietan,Badong,and on both banks of Shenlong stream. The results show that the upper-limit of magnitude at dam area is less than magnitude 3,that at the bayou of Xiangxi stream and the cross-river section of Xiannushan Fault zone is between magnitude 4～5,that at west of Xietan is less than magnitude 3,and that at the northern bank of badong and on both banks of the Shenlong stream is between magnitude 3～4.The results have been validated by the actual reservoir-induced seismicity after the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir, with the ML 2 earthquake at Xiaoxikou 4 km far away from the dam of the Three Gorges Reservoir on February 6, 2009, the MS 4.1 earthquake at the bayou of Xiangxi stream and the cross―river section of the Xiannushan Fault zone on November 22,2008, the MS 2.6 earthquake at the west Xietan on August 22, 2009, and the ML 3.5 earthquake at the bank of Shenlong stream on December 14,2009.
引文
常宝琦,沈立英.1997.水库地震主震发生时间的预测[J].华南地震,17(2):76—81.CHANG Bao-qi,SHEN Li-yin.1997.Forecasting the time of main shock of reservoir-induced earthquake[J].SouthChina Journal of Seismology,17(2):76—81(in Chinese).
丁仁杰,李克昌,吴晓莉,等.2004.重庆地震研究暨“重庆1︰50万地震构造图”[M].北京:地震出版社.DING Ren-jie,LI Ke-chang,WU Xiao-li,et al.2004.Earthquake Study in Chongqing and‘The1︰500,000-scale Seis-motectonic Map of Chongqing'[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
丁原章等.1989.水库诱发地震[M].北京:地震出版社.DING Yuan-zhang,et al.1989.The Reservoir Induced Earthquake[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
胡聿贤,陈汉尧.1991.地震危险性评估中不确定性的概率分析[J].地震工程与工程震动,11(4):1—9.HU Yu-xian,CHEN Han-yao.1991.Probabilistic analysis of uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment[J].Earth-quake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,11(4):1—9(in Chinese).
胡先明.2004.冕宁大桥水库诱发地震研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,24(2):88—91.HU Xian-ming.2004.Study on induced earthquake of Mianning Daqiao reservoir[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geody-namics,24(2):88—91(in Chinese).
胡毓良,陈献程.1979.中国的水库地震及有关成因的讨论[J].地震地质,1(4):45—57.HU Yu-liang,CHEN Xian-cheng.1979.Discussion on the reservoir-induced earthquakes in China and some problemsrelated to their origin[J].Seismology and Geology,1(4):45—57(in Chinese).
黄乃安,张绍波.1991.丹江口水库诱发地震趋势研究[J].华南地震,11(4):67—74.HUANG Nai-an,ZHANG Shao-bo.1991.Study on the trend of induced seismicity in Danjiangkou Reservoir[J].SouthChina Journal of Seismology,11(4):67—74(in Chinese).
马文涛,徐长朋,李海鸥,等.2010.长江三峡水库诱发地震加密观测及地震成因分析[J].地震地质,32(4):552—563.MA Wen-tao,XU Chang-peng,LI Hai-ou,et al.2010.Intensive observation of reservoir-induced earthquake and prelimi-nary analysis on the causes of earthquakes in Three Gorges Reservoir[J].Seismology and Geology,32(4):552—563(in Chinese).doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2010.04.003.
孙君秀.1996.水库诱发地震预测方法研究[J].地震地质,18(4):421—426.SUN Jun-xiu.1996.A study of prediction method for reservoir induced earthquakes[J].Seismology and Geology,18(4):421—426(in Chinese).
苏锦星,汪雍熙.2000.水库诱发地震可能性的定量评价[J].工程地质学报,8(增刊):68—73.SU Jin-xing,WANG Yong-xi.2000.Quantitative evaluation of the possibility of reservoir induced earthquake[J].ActaSeismologica Sinica,8(Suppl):68—73(in Chinese).
潘家铮,何景主编.2000.中国大坝50年[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.PAN Jia-zheng,HE Jing(ed).2000.Large Dams in China over the50Years[M].China Water Power Press,Beijing(inChinese).
谭周地,薄景山.1989.水库地震发震强度的概率预测模型及长江三峡工程水库地震可能发震水平的预测[J].水文地质工程地质,(3):22—28.TAN Zhou-di,BO Jing-shan.1989.The probability prediction model of reservoir-induced earthquake strength and theforecast of activity of reservoir-induced earthquake in Three Gorges Reservoir[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,(3):22—28(in Chinese).
王建平.2010.孔梁水库诱发地震预测研究[J].地震研究,33(1):19—24.WANG Jian-ping.2010.Study on the induced earthquake of Kongliang Reservoir[J].Earthquake Research in China,33(1):19—24(in Chinese).
夏其发,李敏,常庭改,等.2012.水库地震评价与预测[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.XIA Qi-fa,LI Min,CHANG Ting-gai,et al.2012.The Evaluation and Prediction of Reservoir-induced Seismicity[M].China Water Power Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
夏其发,汪雍熙.1984.试论水库诱发地震的地质分类[A].见:国家地震局地震研究所编.中国诱发地震.北京:地震出版社.8—19.XIA Qi-fa,WANG Yong-xi.1984.Discussion on the geological classification of reservoir induced earthquakes[A].In:Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration(ed).Reservoir-Induced Seismicity in China.SeismologicalPress,Beijing.8—l9(in Chinese).
薛军蓉,李蓉川,韩晓光.1992.水库诱发地震危险性预测的模式识别方法初探[J].华南地震,12(1):80—85.XUE Jun-rong,LI Rong-chuan,HAN Xiao-guang.1992.Research on a method of how to distinguish the model of fore-casting the risk of reservoir induced earthquake[J].South China Journal of Seismology,12(1):80—85(in Chi-nese).
杨清源,陈晓利,陈献程.2001.水库诱发地震的最大震级及其发震时间的预测研究[J].地震学报,23(5):523—421.YANG Qing-yuan,CHEN Xiao-li,CHEN Xian-cheng.2001.Prediction of maximum magnitude and original time of res-ervoir induced seismicity[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,23(5):523—421(in Chinese).
杨清源,胡毓良,陈献程.1996.国内外水库诱发地震目录[J].地震地质,18(4):453—461.YANG Qing-yuan,HU Yu-liang,CHEN Xian-cheng.1996.Catalogue of reservoir-induced earthquakes in China and a-broad[J].Seismology and Geology,18(4):453—461(in Chinese).
易立新,车用太.2000.水库诱发地震及其水文地质条件和诱震机理[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,11(2):46—50.YI Li-xin,CHE Yong-tai.2000.Reservoir-induced earthquake and its hydrogeological conditions and inducing mecha-nism[J].Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,11(2):46—50(in Chinese).
余永毓.1987.逻辑信息法在水库诱发地震研究中的应用[J].地震学报,9(增刊):413—421.YU Yong-yu.1987.Application of logical information method to reservoir-induced earthquake research[J].Acta Seis-mologica Sinica,9(Suppl):413—421(in Chinese).
袁曲,董建辉.2005.三峡水库地震孕震机理与未来地震趋势初探[J].地震地磁观测与研究,26(B10):37—47.YUAN Qu,DONG Jian-hui.2005.Preliminary discussion on earthquake seismogenic mechanism in Three Gorges Reser-voir and the trend of earthquakes in future[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,26(B10):37—47(in Chinese).
张邵波.1993.长江三峡水库诱发地震危险性分析[J].四川水力发电,(3):27—32.ZHANG Shao-bo.1993.Risk analysis of reservoir induced earthquake in the Three Gorge Project[J].Sichuan WaterPower,(3):27—32(in Chinese).
张秋文,张国安,王乘,等.2001.水库诱发地震危险性定量预测与评估系统开发研究[J].水电能源科学,19(4):29—32.ZHANG Qiu-wen,ZHANG Guo-an,WANG Cheng,et al.2001.A system for reservoir-induced seismicity risk predictionand assessment[J].Water Resources and Power,19(4):29—32(in Chinese).
钟以章.1990.用灰色系统理论预测锦凌水库的诱发地震[J].华南地震,10(4):80—86.ZHONG Yi-zhang.1990.Jinling Reservoir-induced seismicity predicted by Gray System Theory[J].South China Jour-nal of Seismology,10(4):80—86(in Chinese).
中国水利年鉴编写组.2012.中国水利年鉴暨2011[M].北京:中国水利出版社.Compiling Group of China Water Conservancy Yearbook.2012.China Water Conservancy Yearbook in2011[M].ChinaWater Conservancy Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
Bell M L,Amos N.1978.Strength changes due to reservoir-induced pore pressure and stresses and application to LakeOroville[J].J Geophys Res,83:4469—4483.
Gough W D,Gough WⅠ.1970.Stress and deflection in the lithosphere near Lake Kariba[J].Geophys J,21:65—78.
HU Yu-liang,LIU Zu-Yuan,YANG Qing-Yuan,et al.1996.Induced seismicity at Wujiangdu Reservoir,China:A caseinduced in the karst area[J].Pageph,147(2):409—418.
Talwani P.1981.Association of induced seismicity with pre-existing fractures at Monticello Reservoir[J].EarthquakeNotes,52(1).
YAO Yun-sheng,et al.2000.Tectonic deformation of the Jianghan Dongting Basin and its surrounding areas from lateMesozoic to Cenozoic[J].Geotectonica et Metallogenia,24(2):140—145.
丁仁杰,李克昌,吴晓莉,等.2004.重庆地震研究暨“重庆1︰50万地震构造图”[M].北京:地震出版社.DING Ren-jie,LI Ke-chang,WU Xiao-li,et al.2004.Earthquake Study in Chongqing and‘The1︰500,000-scale Seis-motectonic Map of Chongqing'[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
丁原章等.1989.水库诱发地震[M].北京:地震出版社.DING Yuan-zhang,et al.1989.The Reservoir Induced Earthquake[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
胡聿贤,陈汉尧.1991.地震危险性评估中不确定性的概率分析[J].地震工程与工程震动,11(4):1—9.HU Yu-xian,CHEN Han-yao.1991.Probabilistic analysis of uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment[J].Earth-quake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,11(4):1—9(in Chinese).
胡先明.2004.冕宁大桥水库诱发地震研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,24(2):88—91.HU Xian-ming.2004.Study on induced earthquake of Mianning Daqiao reservoir[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geody-namics,24(2):88—91(in Chinese).
胡毓良,陈献程.1979.中国的水库地震及有关成因的讨论[J].地震地质,1(4):45—57.HU Yu-liang,CHEN Xian-cheng.1979.Discussion on the reservoir-induced earthquakes in China and some problemsrelated to their origin[J].Seismology and Geology,1(4):45—57(in Chinese).
黄乃安,张绍波.1991.丹江口水库诱发地震趋势研究[J].华南地震,11(4):67—74.HUANG Nai-an,ZHANG Shao-bo.1991.Study on the trend of induced seismicity in Danjiangkou Reservoir[J].SouthChina Journal of Seismology,11(4):67—74(in Chinese).
马文涛,徐长朋,李海鸥,等.2010.长江三峡水库诱发地震加密观测及地震成因分析[J].地震地质,32(4):552—563.MA Wen-tao,XU Chang-peng,LI Hai-ou,et al.2010.Intensive observation of reservoir-induced earthquake and prelimi-nary analysis on the causes of earthquakes in Three Gorges Reservoir[J].Seismology and Geology,32(4):552—563(in Chinese).doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2010.04.003.
孙君秀.1996.水库诱发地震预测方法研究[J].地震地质,18(4):421—426.SUN Jun-xiu.1996.A study of prediction method for reservoir induced earthquakes[J].Seismology and Geology,18(4):421—426(in Chinese).
苏锦星,汪雍熙.2000.水库诱发地震可能性的定量评价[J].工程地质学报,8(增刊):68—73.SU Jin-xing,WANG Yong-xi.2000.Quantitative evaluation of the possibility of reservoir induced earthquake[J].ActaSeismologica Sinica,8(Suppl):68—73(in Chinese).
潘家铮,何景主编.2000.中国大坝50年[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.PAN Jia-zheng,HE Jing(ed).2000.Large Dams in China over the50Years[M].China Water Power Press,Beijing(inChinese).
谭周地,薄景山.1989.水库地震发震强度的概率预测模型及长江三峡工程水库地震可能发震水平的预测[J].水文地质工程地质,(3):22—28.TAN Zhou-di,BO Jing-shan.1989.The probability prediction model of reservoir-induced earthquake strength and theforecast of activity of reservoir-induced earthquake in Three Gorges Reservoir[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,(3):22—28(in Chinese).
王建平.2010.孔梁水库诱发地震预测研究[J].地震研究,33(1):19—24.WANG Jian-ping.2010.Study on the induced earthquake of Kongliang Reservoir[J].Earthquake Research in China,33(1):19—24(in Chinese).
夏其发,李敏,常庭改,等.2012.水库地震评价与预测[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.XIA Qi-fa,LI Min,CHANG Ting-gai,et al.2012.The Evaluation and Prediction of Reservoir-induced Seismicity[M].China Water Power Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
夏其发,汪雍熙.1984.试论水库诱发地震的地质分类[A].见:国家地震局地震研究所编.中国诱发地震.北京:地震出版社.8—19.XIA Qi-fa,WANG Yong-xi.1984.Discussion on the geological classification of reservoir induced earthquakes[A].In:Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration(ed).Reservoir-Induced Seismicity in China.SeismologicalPress,Beijing.8—l9(in Chinese).
薛军蓉,李蓉川,韩晓光.1992.水库诱发地震危险性预测的模式识别方法初探[J].华南地震,12(1):80—85.XUE Jun-rong,LI Rong-chuan,HAN Xiao-guang.1992.Research on a method of how to distinguish the model of fore-casting the risk of reservoir induced earthquake[J].South China Journal of Seismology,12(1):80—85(in Chi-nese).
杨清源,陈晓利,陈献程.2001.水库诱发地震的最大震级及其发震时间的预测研究[J].地震学报,23(5):523—421.YANG Qing-yuan,CHEN Xiao-li,CHEN Xian-cheng.2001.Prediction of maximum magnitude and original time of res-ervoir induced seismicity[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,23(5):523—421(in Chinese).
杨清源,胡毓良,陈献程.1996.国内外水库诱发地震目录[J].地震地质,18(4):453—461.YANG Qing-yuan,HU Yu-liang,CHEN Xian-cheng.1996.Catalogue of reservoir-induced earthquakes in China and a-broad[J].Seismology and Geology,18(4):453—461(in Chinese).
易立新,车用太.2000.水库诱发地震及其水文地质条件和诱震机理[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,11(2):46—50.YI Li-xin,CHE Yong-tai.2000.Reservoir-induced earthquake and its hydrogeological conditions and inducing mecha-nism[J].Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,11(2):46—50(in Chinese).
余永毓.1987.逻辑信息法在水库诱发地震研究中的应用[J].地震学报,9(增刊):413—421.YU Yong-yu.1987.Application of logical information method to reservoir-induced earthquake research[J].Acta Seis-mologica Sinica,9(Suppl):413—421(in Chinese).
袁曲,董建辉.2005.三峡水库地震孕震机理与未来地震趋势初探[J].地震地磁观测与研究,26(B10):37—47.YUAN Qu,DONG Jian-hui.2005.Preliminary discussion on earthquake seismogenic mechanism in Three Gorges Reser-voir and the trend of earthquakes in future[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,26(B10):37—47(in Chinese).
张邵波.1993.长江三峡水库诱发地震危险性分析[J].四川水力发电,(3):27—32.ZHANG Shao-bo.1993.Risk analysis of reservoir induced earthquake in the Three Gorge Project[J].Sichuan WaterPower,(3):27—32(in Chinese).
张秋文,张国安,王乘,等.2001.水库诱发地震危险性定量预测与评估系统开发研究[J].水电能源科学,19(4):29—32.ZHANG Qiu-wen,ZHANG Guo-an,WANG Cheng,et al.2001.A system for reservoir-induced seismicity risk predictionand assessment[J].Water Resources and Power,19(4):29—32(in Chinese).
钟以章.1990.用灰色系统理论预测锦凌水库的诱发地震[J].华南地震,10(4):80—86.ZHONG Yi-zhang.1990.Jinling Reservoir-induced seismicity predicted by Gray System Theory[J].South China Jour-nal of Seismology,10(4):80—86(in Chinese).
中国水利年鉴编写组.2012.中国水利年鉴暨2011[M].北京:中国水利出版社.Compiling Group of China Water Conservancy Yearbook.2012.China Water Conservancy Yearbook in2011[M].ChinaWater Conservancy Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
Bell M L,Amos N.1978.Strength changes due to reservoir-induced pore pressure and stresses and application to LakeOroville[J].J Geophys Res,83:4469—4483.
Gough W D,Gough WⅠ.1970.Stress and deflection in the lithosphere near Lake Kariba[J].Geophys J,21:65—78.
HU Yu-liang,LIU Zu-Yuan,YANG Qing-Yuan,et al.1996.Induced seismicity at Wujiangdu Reservoir,China:A caseinduced in the karst area[J].Pageph,147(2):409—418.
Talwani P.1981.Association of induced seismicity with pre-existing fractures at Monticello Reservoir[J].EarthquakeNotes,52(1).
YAO Yun-sheng,et al.2000.Tectonic deformation of the Jianghan Dongting Basin and its surrounding areas from lateMesozoic to Cenozoic[J].Geotectonica et Metallogenia,24(2):140—145.
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