涔天河水库诱发地震的预测研究

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英文篇名：A Study on Reservoir-induced Earthquake Prediction for Centianhe Reservoir 中文刊名：华南地震 英文刊名：South China Journal of Seismology 作者：魏柏林 ; 陈立军 ; 谢明富 ; 陈家超 ; 黄河生 ; 吴华 英文作者：WEI Bolin1 ; CHEN Lijun2 ; XIE Mingfu1 ; HUANG Hesheng1 ; HU Hua2(1.Earthquake Administration of Guangdong Province ; Guangzhou 510070 ; China ; 2.Earthquake Administration of Hunan Province ; Changsha 410001 ; China) 中文关键词：涔天河水库 ; 诱发地震 ; 地震活动 ; 预测 英文关键词：Centianhe reservoir ; Induced earthquake ; Earthquake activity ; Prediction 出版日期：2012-11-15 机构：广东省地震局;湖南省地震局; 年：2012 期：S1 出版单位：华南地震

摘要

涔天河水库,蓄水40年未纪录到水库诱发地震。拟扩建工程,坝高113m,库容15.1亿m3。增加蓄水14亿m3后,是否会发生水库诱发地震,最大震级多大?依据地震构造背景、水库规模、水库蓄水后诱发最大震级的最大概率时间等,预测涔天河水库诱发地震最大震级不会大于4.7级。
After Centianhe reservoir impounding 40 years,there is no reservoir-induced earthquake recorded.Expansion project is planed for that the dam height is 75m,and storage capacity is 1.51 billion m3.When increasing the volume of water by 1.4billion m3,whether or not reservoir-induced earthquake occurred,and how big can the earthquake get? According to seismotectonic background 、 reservoir scale、 the maximum probability of time when earthquake of the maximum magnitude happen after impoundment,this paper predicts that the maximum magnitude of Centianhe reservoir-induced earthquake is less than 4.7.

引文

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    [2]蒋维强,林纪曾.华南地区的小震震源机制与构造应力场[J].中国地震,1992,8(1):36-42.
    [3]常宝琦,梁纪彬.水库地震震级预测的讨论[J].华南地震,1994,14(1):77-82.