县(市)绝对地震应急能力评估方法的初步研究
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摘要
县(市)地震应急能力的高低直接关系到中国整个地震应急工作的成效。从县(市)绝对地震应急能力的内涵分析出发,结合汶川地震灾区县(市)地震应急能力实地调研工作取得的认识,首先初步构建了县(市)绝对地震应急能力指标体系框架;然后以四川省县(市)为例,在遵循科学性、系统优化和可操作性原则的基础上,构建了围绕着1个目标层,设定5个准则层、9个指标层和17个变量层的四川省县(市)绝对地震应急能力的评价指标体系;继而建立了一个基于主成分分析法和多指标综合法的四川省县(市)绝对地震应急能力综合评价模型。县(市)绝对地震应急能力评价指标体系和评估方法的建立能够对县(市)地震应急能力进行定量化的评价,从而为加强县(市)基层政府地震应急能力建设、提高其地震应急管理水平提供科学的依据。
The absolute earthquake emergency ability at county level is directly related to the effectiveness of the whole earthquake emergency response of China.This paper firstly analyzes the definition of absolute earthquake emergency response ability at county level,and then,based on the field survey of earthquake emergency response ability at county level after the Wenchuan earthquake,constructs preliminarily the index system for evaluating the county-level absolute earthquake emergency response ability and the comprehensive assessment.Finally,taking the counties and cities of Sichuan Province as example,the paper constructs the evaluation index system,which includes one object layer,five rule layers,nine factor layers and seventeen variable layers.Meanwhile,it puts forward comprehensive assessment method based on principal components analysis and multifactor comprehensive analysis.This method will help to assess quantificationally the absolute earthquake emergency response ability at county level,thus strengthening the ability of the county government in the management of earthquake emergency response.
The absolute earthquake emergency ability at county level is directly related to the effectiveness of the whole earthquake emergency response of China.This paper firstly analyzes the definition of absolute earthquake emergency response ability at county level,and then,based on the field survey of earthquake emergency response ability at county level after the Wenchuan earthquake,constructs preliminarily the index system for evaluating the county-level absolute earthquake emergency response ability and the comprehensive assessment.Finally,taking the counties and cities of Sichuan Province as example,the paper constructs the evaluation index system,which includes one object layer,five rule layers,nine factor layers and seventeen variable layers.Meanwhile,it puts forward comprehensive assessment method based on principal components analysis and multifactor comprehensive analysis.This method will help to assess quantificationally the absolute earthquake emergency response ability at county level,thus strengthening the ability of the county government in the management of earthquake emergency response.
引文
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郝清源.2004.城市搜索与救援队能力构成[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所.HAO Qing-yuan.2004.The composing of capabilities of urban search and rescue teams and the study of evaluation in-dex system[D].Dissertation.Institute of Geophysics,CSB,Beijing(in Chinese).
牛冲槐,任朝江,白建新,等.2003.突发性公共事件中政府应急能力的测定[J].太原理工大学学报(社会科学版),21(4):21—25.NIU Chong-huai,REN Chao-jiang,BAI Jian-xin,et al.2003.The measurement of the government's emergency-dealing a-bility in unexpected public accidents[J].Journal of Taiyuan University of Technology(Social Sciences Edition),21(4):21—25(in Chinese).
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四川省统计局,国家统计局四川调查队.2009.四川省县(区)统计年鉴2008[Z].北京:中国统计出版社.Sichuan Bureau of Statistics,Sichuan Investigation Team of National Bureau of Statistics.2009.Sichuan county-level sta-tistical yearbook2008[Z].China Statistical Publishing House,Beijing(in Chinese).
铁永波,唐川,周春花.2006.城市灾害应急能力评价研究[J].灾害学,21(1):8—12.TIE Yong-bo,TANG Chuan,ZHOU Chun-hua.2006.The application of AHP to emergency response capability assess-ment in urban disaster[J].Journal of Catastrophology,21(1):8—12(in Chinese).
王静爱,施之海,刘珍,等.2006.中国自然灾害灾后响应能力评价与地域差异[J].自然灾害学报,15(6):23—27.WANG Jing-ai,SHI Zhi-hai,LIU Zhen,et al.2006.Assessment and regional difference of disaster resilience capabilityin China[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,15(6):23—27(in Chinese).
吴新燕,顾建华.2007.国内外城市灾害应急能力评价的研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,16(6):109—114.WU Xin-yan,GU Jian-hua.2007.Advance in research on urban emergency management capability assessment at homeand abroad[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,16(6):109—114(in Chinese).
徐静珍,郝春新.2003.城市居民灾害应急反应能力的研究[J].城市与减灾,(5):18—20.XU Jing-zhen,HAO Chun-xin.2003.Research on city-dweller's emergency capability[J].City and Disaster Reduction,(5):18—20(in Chinese).
谢水龙.2005.高高屏三县市消防局之灾害抢救能力综合评估研究[D]:[学位论文].台北:国立中山大学公共事务管理研究所.XIE Shui-long.2005.The combined assessment research on disaster rescue capability of fire bureaus of Kaohsiung city,Kaohsiung county,and Pingtung county[D].Dissertation.Institute of Public Affairs Management,NSYSU,Taibei(in Chinese).
薛薇.2009.SPSS统计分析方法及应用(第二版)[M].北京:电子工业出版社.338—349.XUE Wei.2009.SPSS Statistics Analysis Method and Application(the Second Edition)[M].Publishing House of Elec-tronics Industry,Beijing.338—349(in Chinese).
杨青,田依林,宋英华.2007.基于过程管理的城市灾害应急管理综合能力评价体系研究[J].中国行政管理,(3):103—106.YANG Qing,TIAN Yi-lin,SONG Ying-hua.2007.Comprehensive capability evaluation system of the urban disaster e-mergency management based on process management[J].Chinese Public Administration,(3):103—106(inChinese).
邓砚,聂高众,苏桂武.2010.县(市)地震应急能力评价指标体系的构建[J].灾害学,25(3):125—129.DENG Yan,NIE Gao-zhong,SU Gui-wu.2010.Construction of evaluation index system for earthquake emergency re-sponse ability at county level[J].Journal of Catastrophology,25(3):125—129(in Chinese).
邓云峰,郑双忠,刘功智,等.2005.城市应急能力评估体系研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,1(6):33—37.DENG Yun-feng,ZHENG Shuang-zhong,LIU Gong-zhi,et al.2005.Study on emergency capability assessment system ofa city[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,1(6):33—37(in Chinese).
高庆华,张业成,刘惠敏,等.2006.中国区域减灾基础能力初步研究[M].北京:气象出版社.52.GAO Qing-hua,ZHANG Ye-cheng,LIU Hui-min,et al.2006.Researches on the Regional Basic Disaster-Reducation A-bility of China[M].China Meteorological Press,Beijing.52(in Chinese).
国务院人口普查办公室,国家统计局人口和社会科技统计司.2003.2000年人口普查分县资料[Z].北京:中国统计出版社.Census Office of the State Council,Department of Population and Social Technological Statistics,National Bureau of Sta-tistics.2003.China census data at county level for2000[Z].China Statistical Publishing House,Beijing(in Chi-nese).
黄典剑,李传贵.2006a.突发事件应急能力评价:以城市地铁为对象[M].北京:冶金工业出版社.HUANG Dian-jian,LI Chuan-gui.2006a.Assessment of Emergency Capacity to Major Incidents on Urban Subway[M].Metallurgical Industry Publishing House,Beijing(in Chinese).
黄典剑,吴宗之,蔡嗣经,等.2006b.地震应急避难所的应急适应能力:基于层次分析法的评价方法[J].自然灾害学报,15(1):52—58.HUANG Dian-jian,WU Zong-zhi,CAI Si-jing,et al.2006b.Emergency adaption of urban emergency shelter:Analytichierarchy process-based assessment method[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,15(1):52—58(in Chinese).
郝清源.2004.城市搜索与救援队能力构成[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所.HAO Qing-yuan.2004.The composing of capabilities of urban search and rescue teams and the study of evaluation in-dex system[D].Dissertation.Institute of Geophysics,CSB,Beijing(in Chinese).
牛冲槐,任朝江,白建新,等.2003.突发性公共事件中政府应急能力的测定[J].太原理工大学学报(社会科学版),21(4):21—25.NIU Chong-huai,REN Chao-jiang,BAI Jian-xin,et al.2003.The measurement of the government's emergency-dealing a-bility in unexpected public accidents[J].Journal of Taiyuan University of Technology(Social Sciences Edition),21(4):21—25(in Chinese).
苏桂武,马宗晋,王若嘉,等.2008.汶川地震灾区民众认知与响应地震灾害的特点及其减灾宣教意义:以四川省德阳市为例[J].地震地质,30(4):877—894.SU Gui-wu,MA Zong-jin,WANG Ruo-jia,et al.2008.General features and their disaster-reduction education implica-tions of the earthquake disaster cognition and responses of the social public in MS8.0Wenchuan earthquake-hitarea:A case study from Deyang prefecture-level city,Sichuan Province[J].Seismology and Geology,30(4):877—894(in Chinese).
四川省统计局,国家统计局四川调查队.2009.四川省县(区)统计年鉴2008[Z].北京:中国统计出版社.Sichuan Bureau of Statistics,Sichuan Investigation Team of National Bureau of Statistics.2009.Sichuan county-level sta-tistical yearbook2008[Z].China Statistical Publishing House,Beijing(in Chinese).
铁永波,唐川,周春花.2006.城市灾害应急能力评价研究[J].灾害学,21(1):8—12.TIE Yong-bo,TANG Chuan,ZHOU Chun-hua.2006.The application of AHP to emergency response capability assess-ment in urban disaster[J].Journal of Catastrophology,21(1):8—12(in Chinese).
王静爱,施之海,刘珍,等.2006.中国自然灾害灾后响应能力评价与地域差异[J].自然灾害学报,15(6):23—27.WANG Jing-ai,SHI Zhi-hai,LIU Zhen,et al.2006.Assessment and regional difference of disaster resilience capabilityin China[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,15(6):23—27(in Chinese).
吴新燕,顾建华.2007.国内外城市灾害应急能力评价的研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,16(6):109—114.WU Xin-yan,GU Jian-hua.2007.Advance in research on urban emergency management capability assessment at homeand abroad[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,16(6):109—114(in Chinese).
徐静珍,郝春新.2003.城市居民灾害应急反应能力的研究[J].城市与减灾,(5):18—20.XU Jing-zhen,HAO Chun-xin.2003.Research on city-dweller's emergency capability[J].City and Disaster Reduction,(5):18—20(in Chinese).
谢水龙.2005.高高屏三县市消防局之灾害抢救能力综合评估研究[D]:[学位论文].台北:国立中山大学公共事务管理研究所.XIE Shui-long.2005.The combined assessment research on disaster rescue capability of fire bureaus of Kaohsiung city,Kaohsiung county,and Pingtung county[D].Dissertation.Institute of Public Affairs Management,NSYSU,Taibei(in Chinese).
薛薇.2009.SPSS统计分析方法及应用(第二版)[M].北京:电子工业出版社.338—349.XUE Wei.2009.SPSS Statistics Analysis Method and Application(the Second Edition)[M].Publishing House of Elec-tronics Industry,Beijing.338—349(in Chinese).
杨青,田依林,宋英华.2007.基于过程管理的城市灾害应急管理综合能力评价体系研究[J].中国行政管理,(3):103—106.YANG Qing,TIAN Yi-lin,SONG Ying-hua.2007.Comprehensive capability evaluation system of the urban disaster e-mergency management based on process management[J].Chinese Public Administration,(3):103—106(inChinese).
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