北京磁测预报地震效能分析
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摘要
北京磁测预报地震是以压磁理论与感应磁效应为物理基础的，应用差值比较、图象演变、快谱幅比、统计参量等方法，分析地磁资料，研究震磁前兆信息，开展地震监测预报工作。以１９９２～１９９７年期间书面的预报意见为依据，分析了地震预报效能，结果表明，北京磁测的地震监测预报有一定的实际效果与积极作用，今后应当加强震磁前兆的观测研究。
The earthquake prediction by the geomagnetic survey in Beijing area is with piezomagnetic theory and induced magnetic effect as its physical basis.Using the methods of difference comparison,pattern evolution,FFT amplitude ratio and statistical parameter,the geomagnetic data are analyzed,the seismomagnetic precursor information is researched,and the work of earthquake monitoring and prediction is carried out.According to the earthquake prediction proposals in written form during 1992～1997,the efficiency of earthquake prediction is analyzed.The results show that the earthquake monitoring and prediction by the geomagnetic survey in Beijing area has some practical effect and active role.It should be strengthen to observe and to research the seismomagnetic precursor in the future.
The earthquake prediction by the geomagnetic survey in Beijing area is with piezomagnetic theory and induced magnetic effect as its physical basis.Using the methods of difference comparison,pattern evolution,FFT amplitude ratio and statistical parameter,the geomagnetic data are analyzed,the seismomagnetic precursor information is researched,and the work of earthquake monitoring and prediction is carried out.According to the earthquake prediction proposals in written form during 1992～1997,the efficiency of earthquake prediction is analyzed.The results show that the earthquake monitoring and prediction by the geomagnetic survey in Beijing area has some practical effect and active role.It should be strengthen to observe and to research the seismomagnetic precursor in the future.
引文
詹志佳，高金田，张洪利，赵从利，任熙宪，郭启华，张玉敏，沈文志．1996．北京地磁观测及其预测地震研究．地震预报研究论文集（1995）．北京：地震出版社祁贵仲，候作中，范国华，詹志佳．1981．地震的感应磁效应（2）．地球物理学报，24（1）：296～309詹志佳，高金田，张玉敏，郭启华．1990．地磁短周期变化及其在地震预报中的应用．地震预报方法实用化研究文集——地磁地电专辑．北京：学术书刊出版社詹志佳，马森林，彭纯一，沈万鸿．1991．地磁趋势变化异常前兆与地震预报方法研究．中国地震预报方法研究．北京：地震出版社JohnstonM，1997．Reviewofelectricandmagneticfieldsacompanyingseismicandvolcanicactivity，SurveysinGeo－physics，18（1）：441～475ZhanZhijia，1989．InvestigationsoftectonomagneticphenomenainChina．PhysicsofEarthandPlanetaryInteriors，57（1）：11～22
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