鲁甸、景谷、康定地震预测的原理、方法及其意义
详细信息 本馆镜像全文    |  推荐本文 | | 获取馆网全文
摘要
继中长期预测了芦山地震之后,笔者中期预测了鲁甸、景谷和康定地震。例如,鲁甸地震的预测震级为7级左右或6.5级以上(实为里氏6.5级),地点为北纬26°~29°、东经101.5°~105°(实际震中北纬27.1°,东经103.3°),发震时间可能是2014年5月至2015年5月(实际为2014年8月3日)。本文总结了鲁甸、景谷、康定地震和陆内地震热流体物理综合预测的原理、方法和步骤;阐明了在开放复杂地球系统多级物质循环热构造背景下,大陆地壳非均匀流动("热河")过程中热能的源、汇、释过程与热灾害链及其地震之间的关系;提出了根据热灾害链时空结构和活动"热河"地震空区相结合进行长期和中期地震预测,与根据热流体直接和间接前兆异常开展立体监测和短临地震预测有机结合的新思路。根据当前热灾害链的演变规律和异动"热河"地震空区分布,进一步分析了西南和华北地震的发展形势,强调华北(特别是东北)的震情极为严峻,短临地震监测和预测已刻不容缓。
Author has successfully predicted the Ludian,Jinggu and Kangding earthquakes after his long-medium-term forecasting of the Lushan quake. The predicted elements for the Ludian earthquake include about Ms 7.0 or above 6.5(actually Ms 6.5),26°–29°N and 101.5°–105 °E(the actual epicenter 27.1° N and 103.3°E),and earthquake time from May 2014 to May 2015(Actual time August 3,2014). This paper summarizes the principles,methods and procedures of the Ludian,Jinggu and Kangding earthquakes and intracontinental earthquakes by physical and comprehensive prediction based on the thermal fluid; and illustrates the relationship between the source,accumulation,release process of thermal energy within uneven crustal flow("thermal river"),thermal disaster chain,and earthquakes under the thermal tectonic background of multi-scale material recycling in open complex Earth system; also proposes a new workflow that combines long-medium-term earthquake prediction based on spatial-temporal structure of thermal disaster chain and seismic gap along the active "thermal river" and short-term to impending earthquake prediction based on the direct and indirect precursory anomalies of thermal fluid. According to evolution of the ongoing disaster chains and seismic gaps,the author further analyzes the earthquake trend in the Southwest China and North China,and emphasizes the great possibilities of strong earthquakes in the North China(especially the Northeast China). The short-term and impending earthquake monitoring and prediction in these areas demand relevant departments take immediate action.
引文
蔡学林,朱介寿,曹家敏,刘顺,郑析森.2003.华南地区岩石圈三维结构类型与演化动力学.大地构造与成矿学,27(4):301–312.
    陈桂凡,郝海健,冯旻旻,纪星星,陈继乐,李德威.2013.西南地区热灾害链的时空结构及其与芦山地震的关系.地学前缘,20(6):141–148.
    陈立德,付虹.2014.地震预报新概念.北京:地震出版社:1–121.
    陈胜早.2006.地震动力学:震源分布与岩石圈流变特性.大地构造与成矿学,31(3):265–272.
    陈运泰.2009.地震预测:回顾与展望.中国科学(D辑),39(12):1633–1658.
    傅承义,陈运泰,陈顒.1979.我国的震源物理研究.地球物理学报,22(4):315–320.
    邓志辉,马瑾.1993.地震前兆异常时间分布非线性特征的初步探讨——以海城地震和唐山地震为例.地震地质,15(3):213–219.
    耿庆国.1984.旱震关系与大地震中期预报.中国科学(B辑),(7):658–667.
    郭增建.1997.1949–1966年中国的地震预报研究.陆内地震,11(2):174–177.
    胡敦宽,曾小苹,赵明,李淑芳,林云芳,刘绮亮.1995.地热前兆预报地震的新方法研究.地震,(3):234–239.
    黄定华,吴金平,段怡春,郭浩,张恒,姚凌青,张凡,李斌,王君慧,殷鸿福.2001.从内核偏移到板块运动.科学通报,46(8):646–650.
    李德威.1993.大陆构造样式及大陆动力学模式初探.地球科学进展,8(5):88–93.
    李德威.1995.再论大陆构造与动力学.地球科学——中国地质大学学报,20(1):19–26.
    李德威.2003.青藏高原隆升机制新模式.地球科学——中国地质大学学报,28(6):593–600.
    李德威.2005.地球系统动力学纲要.大地构造与成矿学,29(3):285–294.
    李德威.2008a.大陆板内地震的发震机理与地震预报——以汶川地震为例.地质科技情报,27(5):1–6.
    李德威.2008b.青藏高原及邻区三阶段构造演化与成矿演化.地球科学——中国地质大学学报,33(6):723–742.
    李德威.2010.东昆仑、玉树、汶川地震的发生规律和形成机理:兼论大陆地震成因与预测.地学前缘,17(5):179–192.
    李德威.2011.地球系统动力学与地震成因及其四维预测.香山科学会议编:科学前沿与未来(2009-2011).北京:科学出版社:184–195.
    李德威.2012.初论地球自然灾害系统.地质科技情报,31(5):69–75.
    李德威.2014a.地球多级循环及其资源、能源、灾害、环境效应.地质科技情报,33(1):1–8.
    李德威.2014b.地球系统动力学与取热减灾减排.地学前缘,21(6):243–253.
    李德威,纪云龙.2000.大陆下地壳层流作用及其大陆动力学意义.地震地质,22(1):89–96.
    李德威,夏义平,徐礼贵.2009.大陆板内盆山耦合及盆山成因——以青藏高原及周边盆地为例.地学前缘,16(3):110–119.
    李德威,陈桂凡,陈继乐,郝海健.2013a.地震预测——从芦山地震到大陆地震.地学前缘,20(3):1–10.
    李德威,郝海健,刘娇,周洋,陈桂凡,梁桑.2013b.华北热灾害链的结构、成因及强震趋势分析.地学前缘,20(6):102–108.
    李德威,陈继乐,陈桂凡,梁桑.2014.大陆地震构造系统——以青藏高原及邻区为例.地球科学——中国地质大学学报,39(6):1763-1775.
    刘德富,康春丽.2003.地球长波辐射(OLR)遥感与重大自然灾害预测.地学前缘,10(2):427–435.
    罗文行,李德威,汪校锋.2008.青藏高原板内地震震源深度分布规律及其成因.地球科学——中国地质大学学报,33(5):618–626.
    罗文行,胡祥云,李德威,蔡建超.2012.南北地震带南段震源空间分布特征及其构造意义.吉林大学学报:地球科学版,42(6):1944–1958.
    马宏生,张国民,闻学泽,周龙泉,邵志刚.2008.川滇地区三维P波速度结构反演与构造分析.地球科学——中国地质大学学报,33(5):591–602.
    强祖基,徐秀登,赁常恭.1990.卫星热红外异常——临震前兆.科学通报,35(17):1324–1327.
    任振球,李均之,曾小苹.2001.大地震临震预测的研究进展.地学前缘,8(2):217–223.
    孙洁,徐常芳,江钊,史书林,王继军,何明.1989.滇西地区地壳上地幔电性结构与地壳构造运动的关系.地震地质,11(1):35–45.
    滕吉文.2010.强烈地震孕育与发生的地点、时间及强度预测的思考与探讨.地球物理学报,53(8):1749–1766.
    吴忠良,蒋长胜.2007.统计预测、经验预测、物理预测——近期国际地震预测预报研究的启示.中国地震,23(3),211–224.
    许绍燮.2011.地震应可预测.北京:地震出版社:1–395.
    张小涛,张永仙,许敦煌.2009.汶川8.0级大地震前后宏观异常现象分析.地震,29(2):104–117.
    张元生,郭晓,钟美娇,沈文荣,李稳,何斌.2010.汶川地震卫星热红外亮温变化.科学通报,55(10):904–910.
    曾融生,孙为国.1992.青藏高原岩石圈及其东部邻区的地震活动性和震源机制以及高原物质东流的讨论.地震学报,14(增刊):523–533.
    曾小苹,林云芳.1995.地磁短周期变化异常对中国中强地震的响应.地震,(1):29–36.
    郑勇,葛粲,谢祖军,Yang Y J,熊熊,许厚泽.2013.芦山与汶川地震震区地壳上地幔结构及深部孕震环境.中国科学(D辑),43:1027–1037.
    郑治真.1994.我国前兆地声的观测与研究.地球物理学报,37(增):251–260.
    周伏洪,姚正煦,刘振军,张永军.2002.青藏高原中部北北东向深部负磁异常带的成因及其意义.物探与化探,26(1):12–17.
    Aki K.2004.A new view of earthquake and volcanoprecursors.Earth Planets Space,56:689–713.
    Bai D H,Martyn J,Unsworth M A,Ma X,Teng J,Kong X,Sun YSun J,Wang L,Jiang C,Zhao C,Xiao P and Liu M.2010Crustal deformation of the eastern Tibetan plateau revealed bymagnetotelluric imaging.Nature Geoscience,(3):358–362.
    Burchfiel B C,Royden L H and Hilst R D.2008.Ageological and geophysical context for the Wenchuanearthquake of 12 May 2008,Sichuan,People’sRepublic of China.GSA Today,18(7):4–11.
    Clark M K and Boyden L H.2000.Topographic ooze:Building the eastern margin of Tibet by lower crustalflow.Geology,(8):703–706.
    Cyranoski D.2004.A seismic shift in thinking.Nature,431:1032-1034.
    Geller R J,Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y and Mulargia F.1997.Earthquakes can not be predicted.Science,275:1616–1617.
    Hu H,Han Y B,Su Y J and Wang R.2013.Commensurabilityof earthquake occurrence.Journal of Asian EarthSciences,(70–71):27–34
    Hubbard J S and Shaw J H.2009.Uplift of the LongmenShan and Tibetan plateau,and the 2008 Wenchuan(M=7.9)earthquake.Nature,458:194–197.
    Knopoff L.1999.Earthquake prediction is difficult but notimpossible.Nature,398:6.
    Li D W.2008.Continental lower crustal flow:Channel flow andlaminar flow.Earth Science Frontiers,15(3):130–139.
    Li D W.2010.Temporal-spatial structure of intraplate upliftin the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Acta Geologica Sinica,84(1):105–134.
    Li D W.2013.Lower crustal flow from Ganges basin intothe Tibetan plateau since the Miocene:Effects andmechanism.Acta Geologica Sinica,87(supp):362–363.
    Main I G and Kindy F H.2002.Entropy,energy,andproximity to criticality in global earthquake populations.Geophysical Research Letters,29(7):1–4.
    Royden L H,Burchfiel B C,King R W,Wang E,Chen Z,ShenF and Liu Y.1997.Surface deformation and lower crustalflow in eastern Tibet.Science,276:788–790.
    Wang C Y,Lou H,Silver P,Zhu L and Chang L.2009.Crustal structure variation along 30°N in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and its tectonic implications.Earth andPlanetary Science Letters,289(3–4):367–376.
    Wang Q,Zhang P,Freymueller J T,Bilham R,Larson K M,Lai X,You X,Niu Z,Wu J,Li Y,Liu J,Yang Z andChen Q.2001.Present-day crustal deformation inChina constrained by Global Positioning Systemmeasurements.Science,294:574–577.
    Zhang Z J,Yuan X H,Chen Y,Tian X,Kind R,Li X and TengJ.2010.Seismic signature of the collision between the eastTibetan escape flow and the Sichuan Basin.Earth andPlanetary Science Letters,292:254–264.
    Zhao Y L and Qian F Y.1994.Geoelectric precursors to strongearthquakes in China.Tectonophysics,233:99–113.

版权所有:© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心