强地震地点预报方法─—交汇法
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摘要
利用小震调制比法、动态空区法、震群链式活动轨迹交汇法和短期震中迁移带交汇法这4种地震活动时空图像动态监测方法，结合震源模式中震源和其它单元之间的差异性以及各调整单元、调整层、深浅构造之间的差异性对若干震例进行研究，发现应用不同时段多个异常区边界或空区边界或条带交汇可求得未来强震的位置。交汇法使地震的预报范围大大缩小，这对防震减灾有一定的现实意义。另外，交汇法不仅具有明确的物理基础，而且具有可操作性和普适性。只要异常边界比较正确，采用的又是动态监测方法，这种预测强震位置的思路和方法还可推广到其它各种地震活动性参数和前兆场的分析中。
Some earthquake examples were studied by using 4 kinds of dynamic prediction methodsof seismic active pattern (put forward by Qin Baoyian respectively in 1982～1983，1994, 1995.1996 )on the bese of the difference between earthquake source and adjusting elements, the dlf-ferences among adjusting elements,among adjusting layers,and between deep structure andshallow one. The result shows that loctions of future strong earthquakes can be determinedby cross regions of some anomalous boundaries or seismic belts. Using cross method can re-duce the size of predicted area greatly,and this has practical signiflcance for seismic protec-tion and reduction losses from earthquakes. It is necessary to point that the cross method notonly has obvious physical base,but also is universally applicable and operable- If the anoma-lous boundaries is relatively correct and prediction method is dynamic,the cross method canalso be used in other seismicity parameters and precursory fellds.
Some earthquake examples were studied by using 4 kinds of dynamic prediction methodsof seismic active pattern (put forward by Qin Baoyian respectively in 1982～1983，1994, 1995.1996 )on the bese of the difference between earthquake source and adjusting elements, the dlf-ferences among adjusting elements,among adjusting layers,and between deep structure andshallow one. The result shows that loctions of future strong earthquakes can be determinedby cross regions of some anomalous boundaries or seismic belts. Using cross method can re-duce the size of predicted area greatly,and this has practical signiflcance for seismic protec-tion and reduction losses from earthquakes. It is necessary to point that the cross method notonly has obvious physical base,but also is universally applicable and operable- If the anoma-lous boundaries is relatively correct and prediction method is dynamic,the cross method canalso be used in other seismicity parameters and precursory fellds.
引文
1秦保燕等.西海固地区小震调制特征.西北地震学报(海原5.5级地震专辑),1983.
2秦保燕.地震动态空区法与中、强震预报·地震研究,1995,18(2)·
3郭增建,秦保燕.地震成因和地震预报. 北京:地震出版社,1991.
4孔令昌,强祖基.地壳突发生放气与灾害事件的研究·西北地震学报,1996,18(1):42～43.
5国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(1993,1994,1995,1996年度).北京:地震出版社,1992,1993,1994,1995.
6秦保燕.大震前复杂震源系统非线性阶段的多层次性及大震的中短临预报. 西北地震学报,1987,9(1):1～9.
2秦保燕.地震动态空区法与中、强震预报·地震研究,1995,18(2)·
3郭增建,秦保燕.地震成因和地震预报. 北京:地震出版社,1991.
4孔令昌,强祖基.地壳突发生放气与灾害事件的研究·西北地震学报,1996,18(1):42～43.
5国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(1993,1994,1995,1996年度).北京:地震出版社,1992,1993,1994,1995.
6秦保燕.大震前复杂震源系统非线性阶段的多层次性及大震的中短临预报. 西北地震学报,1987,9(1):1～9.
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