甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震发生日期的触发因素分析及对短临预测方法的思考
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摘要
短临预报是目前地震预测的难点,通过对2013年甘肃岷县漳县MS6.6地震发生日期的研究,发现发生日期7月22日是节气、低点位移、异年倍七律和朔望共同作用的时间点。据此,本文用一些基于可能触发地震发生的非传统方法的时间预测方法,回顾性地讨论了甘肃岷县漳县MS6.6地震发生日期的临震日期预测问题。通过对岷县漳县MS6.6地震研究,认为在地震短临日期的预测上。一些非传统方法虽然在机理上还有待研究,但在统计上多次证明该方法具有预测准确性的效能。要基于传统方法与非传统方法结合,才能对临震预测的时间逼近,同时提出今后预测临震时间的思路:多因素不断拦截法。
Statistics of earthquake occurrence dates predicted for many years by Chinese earthquake researchers indicate that earthquakes often occur on the dates of solar terms,displacement of geomagnetic low points,and the first and the fifteenth days of lunar months,which agree well with earthquake statistics. Twenty-four points were set during a one-year period on the basis of sun position.Each point is referred to as a solar term,which generally refers to the day it was recorded. The value of the strength of the magnetic field in a direction perpendicular to the ground(Component Z)was generally lowest at 12:00each day but occasionally occurred before or after that time.In such instances,the low point is said to be "displaced". "Quiet day" is a technical term that refers to daily changes.Thus,lowest points occurring at times other than 12:00are noted by "displacement of low point of Component Z on quiet day".Displacements of low points at certain times measured by all magnetic observatories are marked on a map as postponed in some regions for 2hor 4hor are indicated as not postponed.These displacements are demarcated by a displacement line of low point,in the vicinity of which earthquakes often occur.Dangerous earthquake generation generally occurs 27and 41days(±4days)following formation of the displacement line. Syzygy occurs when the Earth,Sun,and Moon are in a straight line.The first day of the lunar month occurs when the Moon circumambulates between the Sun and the Earth,and the dark face of the Moon is directed toward the Earth.The fifteen or the sixteenth day of the lunar month occurs when the Moon circumambulates back to the Earth,and the hemisphere illuminated by the Sun faces the Earth. The sevenfold and ninefold rules in various years are indices used in impending earthquake prediction that were proposed by the author in 1986.We determined that if strong earthquakes of different years occur in a certain region during the same or similar seasons,the interval of their occurrence dates was a multiple of seven or nine days.This time interval characteristic of sevenfold and ninefold rules in different years enables accurate prediction of the dates of future strong earthquakes in particular regions based on the historical dates of strong earthquakes in the same area. In this study,the July 22,2013,occurrence date of the Minxian-Zhangxian MS 6.6 earthquake is analyzed on the basis of such triggering factors,and a number of concepts and methods of short-impending prediction are presented on the basis of these phenomena.
Statistics of earthquake occurrence dates predicted for many years by Chinese earthquake researchers indicate that earthquakes often occur on the dates of solar terms,displacement of geomagnetic low points,and the first and the fifteenth days of lunar months,which agree well with earthquake statistics. Twenty-four points were set during a one-year period on the basis of sun position.Each point is referred to as a solar term,which generally refers to the day it was recorded. The value of the strength of the magnetic field in a direction perpendicular to the ground(Component Z)was generally lowest at 12:00each day but occasionally occurred before or after that time.In such instances,the low point is said to be "displaced". "Quiet day" is a technical term that refers to daily changes.Thus,lowest points occurring at times other than 12:00are noted by "displacement of low point of Component Z on quiet day".Displacements of low points at certain times measured by all magnetic observatories are marked on a map as postponed in some regions for 2hor 4hor are indicated as not postponed.These displacements are demarcated by a displacement line of low point,in the vicinity of which earthquakes often occur.Dangerous earthquake generation generally occurs 27and 41days(±4days)following formation of the displacement line. Syzygy occurs when the Earth,Sun,and Moon are in a straight line.The first day of the lunar month occurs when the Moon circumambulates between the Sun and the Earth,and the dark face of the Moon is directed toward the Earth.The fifteen or the sixteenth day of the lunar month occurs when the Moon circumambulates back to the Earth,and the hemisphere illuminated by the Sun faces the Earth. The sevenfold and ninefold rules in various years are indices used in impending earthquake prediction that were proposed by the author in 1986.We determined that if strong earthquakes of different years occur in a certain region during the same or similar seasons,the interval of their occurrence dates was a multiple of seven or nine days.This time interval characteristic of sevenfold and ninefold rules in different years enables accurate prediction of the dates of future strong earthquakes in particular regions based on the historical dates of strong earthquakes in the same area. In this study,the July 22,2013,occurrence date of the Minxian-Zhangxian MS 6.6 earthquake is analyzed on the basis of such triggering factors,and a number of concepts and methods of short-impending prediction are presented on the basis of these phenomena.
引文
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[8]许康生,李秋红,李英.大地震前近台背景噪声的频谱分析[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(2):150-153.XU Kang-sheng,LI Qiu-hong,LI Ying.Analysis on the Spectrum of Background Noise in Station near by Epicenters of Two Great Earthquake[J].2012,34(2):150-153.(in Chinese)
[9]余怀忠,程佳.一种将GPS观测应用于地震中短期预测的简单尝试[J].西北地震学报,2011,33(1):9-14.YU Huai-zhong,CHENG Jia.A Simple Attempt to Apply GPS Observation to Short-intermediate-term Earthquake Prediction[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2011,33(1):9-14.(in Chinese)
[10]薛丁,张建业,韩晓明.邢台地震窗对华北6级以上地震的预测[J].西北地震学报,2011,33(2):206-208.XUE Ding,ZHANG Jian-ye,HAN Xiao-ming.Prediction of Earthquake(M≥6)in North China Region Using Representative Shock Window[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2011,33(2):206-208.(in Chinese)
[11]唐兰兰,王海涛,王琼.新疆中强地震前ECRS方法的异常研究[J].西北地震学报,2011,33(2):159-165.TANG Lan-lan,WANG Hai-tao,WANG Qiong.Research on Anomaly of ECRS Method before Moderate-strong Earthquake in Xinjiang Region[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2011,33(2):159-165.(in Chinese)
[12]郭安宁,郭增建,焦姣,等.青海玉树7.1级大震的预测讨论[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(1):39-43.GUO An-ning,GUO Zeng-jian,JIAO Jiao,et al.Discussion on Prediction of Qinghai Yushu MS7.1 Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(1):39-43.(in Chinese)
[2]郭增建,秦保燕,李海华,等.预报地震的“倍九法”[J].地震战线,1977(5):30-32.GUO Zeng-jian,QIN Bao-yan,LI Hai-hua,et al.Nine-times of Earthquake Prediction[J].Earthquake Front,1977(5),30-32.(in Chinese)
[3]黄雪香,丁鉴海.渤海7.4级地震前区域地磁场的异常变化[J].地震学刊,1990(3):45-52.HUANG Xue-xiang,DING Jian-hai.Anomalous Variation of Regional Geomagnetic Field before the Bohai Sea Earthquake[J].Journal of Seismology,1990(3).45-52.(in Chinese)
[4]郭安宁,郭增建.5·12汶川地震预报回顾[M].西安:西安地图出版社,2009.GUO An-ning,GUO Zeng-jian.5·12 Wenchuan Earthquake Prediction Review[M].Xi'an:The Xi'an Map Publishing House,2009.(in Chinese)
[5]易·乌·马克西莫夫.地球物理力与海洋[M].1970(俄文).
[6]董蕾,杨立明.汶川大震前数字地震仪位移地脉动低频异常现象研究[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(3):268-273.Dong Lei,Yang Li-ming.Research on Low-frequency Anomalies of Microtremor Displacement Recorded by Digital Seismigraph before the Wemchuan Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(3):268-273.(in Chinese)
[7]郑江蓉,徐徐,王俊.等.六合体应变干扰因素与地震短临异常特征研究[J].西北地震学报,2011,33(1):84-90.ZHENG Jiang-rong,XU Xu,WANG Jun,et al.Research on the Disturbance in Volume Strain Data at Liuhe Seismic Station and Its Short-imminent Abnormality Characteristics[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2011,33(1):84-90.(in Chinese)
[8]许康生,李秋红,李英.大地震前近台背景噪声的频谱分析[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(2):150-153.XU Kang-sheng,LI Qiu-hong,LI Ying.Analysis on the Spectrum of Background Noise in Station near by Epicenters of Two Great Earthquake[J].2012,34(2):150-153.(in Chinese)
[9]余怀忠,程佳.一种将GPS观测应用于地震中短期预测的简单尝试[J].西北地震学报,2011,33(1):9-14.YU Huai-zhong,CHENG Jia.A Simple Attempt to Apply GPS Observation to Short-intermediate-term Earthquake Prediction[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2011,33(1):9-14.(in Chinese)
[10]薛丁,张建业,韩晓明.邢台地震窗对华北6级以上地震的预测[J].西北地震学报,2011,33(2):206-208.XUE Ding,ZHANG Jian-ye,HAN Xiao-ming.Prediction of Earthquake(M≥6)in North China Region Using Representative Shock Window[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2011,33(2):206-208.(in Chinese)
[11]唐兰兰,王海涛,王琼.新疆中强地震前ECRS方法的异常研究[J].西北地震学报,2011,33(2):159-165.TANG Lan-lan,WANG Hai-tao,WANG Qiong.Research on Anomaly of ECRS Method before Moderate-strong Earthquake in Xinjiang Region[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2011,33(2):159-165.(in Chinese)
[12]郭安宁,郭增建,焦姣,等.青海玉树7.1级大震的预测讨论[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(1):39-43.GUO An-ning,GUO Zeng-jian,JIAO Jiao,et al.Discussion on Prediction of Qinghai Yushu MS7.1 Earthquake[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(1):39-43.(in Chinese)
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