考虑地震构造背景的地震活动性参数光滑方法在地震危险性概率评价中的应用
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摘要
本文选取华北地震区作为研究区域,尝试利用空间光滑活动模型进行地震危险性评估。首先对研究区域进行划分网格,依据地震构造和地震空间分布特征建立地震构造模型,确定构造区特征参数(b值、M0、Mu、断层方位角及M—L关系等)。采用考虑了地震构造背景的椭圆光滑过程的地震活动参数模型,计算各网格点的地震发生率。并利用网格源的地震危险性概率评价方法,由不同输入地震目录通过综合加权得到该区域50年超越概率10%的加速度峰值区划结果。该方法充分体现了地震活动的空间非均一性,尤其适用于发震构造不甚清晰的中强地震可能造成的地震危险性,避免了常规潜在震源区的划分。且评价方法简单快捷,为地震区划以及重大工程地震安全性评价工作提供了新的技术方法。
In this study,we take the North China seismic region as study area,and try to assess seismic hazard by spatially smoothing seismic activity model.Firstly,we classify the study area into grids,and some parameter(like b-value,M0,Mu,azimuth and M-L relationship) about each seismo-tectonic model are assigned.Secondly,we take elliptical smoothing based on a seismo-tectonic background model to process the statistically earthquake incidence rate in each grid successively.Lastly,we choose relevant ground motion attenuation relation to assess of seismic hazard of general sites.The maps for the distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years were obtained by using seismic hazard analysis method based on grid source.This seismicity model simplifies the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis,especially is appropriate for those place where not yet clearly master the seismic tectonic information.The method can provide valuable references for seismic safety assessment work for some significant engineering and the seismic zonation.
In this study,we take the North China seismic region as study area,and try to assess seismic hazard by spatially smoothing seismic activity model.Firstly,we classify the study area into grids,and some parameter(like b-value,M0,Mu,azimuth and M-L relationship) about each seismo-tectonic model are assigned.Secondly,we take elliptical smoothing based on a seismo-tectonic background model to process the statistically earthquake incidence rate in each grid successively.Lastly,we choose relevant ground motion attenuation relation to assess of seismic hazard of general sites.The maps for the distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years were obtained by using seismic hazard analysis method based on grid source.This seismicity model simplifies the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis,especially is appropriate for those place where not yet clearly master the seismic tectonic information.The method can provide valuable references for seismic safety assessment work for some significant engineering and the seismic zonation.
引文
邓起东,于贵华,叶文华,1992.地震地表破裂参数与震级关系的研究.见:国家地震局地质研究所编,活动断裂研究(2).北京:地震出版社,247—264.
高孟潭,卢寿德,2006.关于下一代地震区划图编制原则与关键技术的初步探讨.震灾防御技术,1(1):1—6.
高孟潭,2002.中国地震动参数区划图(GB18306-2001)主要特色与地震区划新动向.见:中国地震局地球物理研究所等,新世纪地震工程与防震减灾.北京:地震出版社,173—178.
高玉峰,谢康和,2000.中强地震区地震烈度和峰值加速度的衰减规律.浙江大学学报(自然科学版),34(4):404—408.
胡聿贤,1999.地震安全性评价技术教程.北京:地震出版社.
金星,马强,李山有,2004.利用数字强震仪记录实时仿真地动速度.地震学报工程与工程震动,24(1):49—84.
金星,康兰池,2008.福建地区中小地震地震动峰值衰减规律研究.地震学报,30(3):279—291.
李小军,阎秀杰,潘华,2005.中小震近场地震动估计中地震动衰减关系的适用性分析.地震工程与工程振动,25(1):1—7.
龙锋,闻学泽,徐锡伟,2006.华北地区地震活断层的震级—破裂长度、破裂面积的经验关系.地震地质,28(4):511—535.
沈建文,邱瑛,赵志贺,1990.震级-破裂长度关系与断层破裂模型.地球物理学报,33(2):242—248.
唐方头,张培震,邓志辉等,2005.华北地区主要断裂带的现今运动特征.煤田地质与勘探,33(1):4—6.
王健,2001.地震活动性图象处理的网格点密集值计算方法.地震学报,23(3):262—267.
王海江,2000.中小地震地震动衰减关系的研究.北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所.
闻学泽,2001.活动断裂的可变破裂尺度地震行为与级联破裂模式的应用.地震学报,23(4):380—390.
徐菊生,袁金荣,高士钧,1999.利用GPS观测结果研究华北地区现今构造应力场.地壳形变与地震,19(2):81—89.
杨勇,史保平,孙亮,2008.基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型.地震学报,30(2):198—208.
翟文杰,1995.地震活动性参数的确定.东北地震研究,11(2):14—22.
张力方,吕悦军,彭艳菊,2008.用空间光滑方法评估弱地震活动区的地震活动性参数.震害防御技术,3(1):27—36.
Cornell C.A.and Vanmarcke E.H.,1969.The major influences onseismic risk.In:Proc.of the Fourth WorldConference on Earthquake Engineering,January1969,Santiago,Chile,A-1,69—93.
Frankel,1995.Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States.Seismological Research Letters,66(4):8—21.
Lapajne J.,Sket Motnikar,Zupan i P.,2003.Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology for distributedseismicity.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,93(6):2502—2515.
Reiter L.,1990.Earthquake Hazard Analysis:Issues and Insights.Columbia Press,New York,P254.
Wells D.L.and Coppersmith K.J.,1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupturewidth,rupture area,and surface displacement.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,84:974—1002.
高孟潭,卢寿德,2006.关于下一代地震区划图编制原则与关键技术的初步探讨.震灾防御技术,1(1):1—6.
高孟潭,2002.中国地震动参数区划图(GB18306-2001)主要特色与地震区划新动向.见:中国地震局地球物理研究所等,新世纪地震工程与防震减灾.北京:地震出版社,173—178.
高玉峰,谢康和,2000.中强地震区地震烈度和峰值加速度的衰减规律.浙江大学学报(自然科学版),34(4):404—408.
胡聿贤,1999.地震安全性评价技术教程.北京:地震出版社.
金星,马强,李山有,2004.利用数字强震仪记录实时仿真地动速度.地震学报工程与工程震动,24(1):49—84.
金星,康兰池,2008.福建地区中小地震地震动峰值衰减规律研究.地震学报,30(3):279—291.
李小军,阎秀杰,潘华,2005.中小震近场地震动估计中地震动衰减关系的适用性分析.地震工程与工程振动,25(1):1—7.
龙锋,闻学泽,徐锡伟,2006.华北地区地震活断层的震级—破裂长度、破裂面积的经验关系.地震地质,28(4):511—535.
沈建文,邱瑛,赵志贺,1990.震级-破裂长度关系与断层破裂模型.地球物理学报,33(2):242—248.
唐方头,张培震,邓志辉等,2005.华北地区主要断裂带的现今运动特征.煤田地质与勘探,33(1):4—6.
王健,2001.地震活动性图象处理的网格点密集值计算方法.地震学报,23(3):262—267.
王海江,2000.中小地震地震动衰减关系的研究.北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所.
闻学泽,2001.活动断裂的可变破裂尺度地震行为与级联破裂模式的应用.地震学报,23(4):380—390.
徐菊生,袁金荣,高士钧,1999.利用GPS观测结果研究华北地区现今构造应力场.地壳形变与地震,19(2):81—89.
杨勇,史保平,孙亮,2008.基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型.地震学报,30(2):198—208.
翟文杰,1995.地震活动性参数的确定.东北地震研究,11(2):14—22.
张力方,吕悦军,彭艳菊,2008.用空间光滑方法评估弱地震活动区的地震活动性参数.震害防御技术,3(1):27—36.
Cornell C.A.and Vanmarcke E.H.,1969.The major influences onseismic risk.In:Proc.of the Fourth WorldConference on Earthquake Engineering,January1969,Santiago,Chile,A-1,69—93.
Frankel,1995.Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States.Seismological Research Letters,66(4):8—21.
Lapajne J.,Sket Motnikar,Zupan i P.,2003.Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology for distributedseismicity.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,93(6):2502—2515.
Reiter L.,1990.Earthquake Hazard Analysis:Issues and Insights.Columbia Press,New York,P254.
Wells D.L.and Coppersmith K.J.,1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupturewidth,rupture area,and surface displacement.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,84:974—1002.
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