汶川8.0级地震前地震活动能量场中短期异常
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摘要
本文应用随机函数理论,将地震释放能量作为地震活动场的基本要素,采用自然正交函数(或称经验正交函数)展开方法,讨论了2008年汶川8.0级地震前区域地震活动能量场的中短期时空异常。结果表明,汶川8.0级地震前震源周围区域能量场的几个主要特征值对应的特征向量(典型场)的时间权重因子出现了明显中长期异常变化,这可能是汶川地震中期异常指标;而沿龙门山断裂带能量场的几个区域特征值对应的时间因子出现了显著短期异常变化,这可能是汶川地震短期异常指标。笔者认为该方法是一种值得进一步探讨的地震活动性预测方法。
This article applies random function theory,and uses seismic energy released as the basic elements of seismic activity.Using natural orthogonal function(or empirical orthogonal function) expansion method we discussed the short-term time-space anomaly in the energy field of regional seismic activity before the 2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake.The results show that the time weighting factor of eigenvectors(typical field) corresponding to several major features of the field values shows a prominent long-term abnormal change around the source region before the M8.0 earthquake.The time weighting factor corresponding to everal regional characteristic values of energy field along the Longmenshan fault zone shows very obvious short-term anomaly.The authors believe that this method is worthy of further study for prediction of earthquake activity.
This article applies random function theory,and uses seismic energy released as the basic elements of seismic activity.Using natural orthogonal function(or empirical orthogonal function) expansion method we discussed the short-term time-space anomaly in the energy field of regional seismic activity before the 2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake.The results show that the time weighting factor of eigenvectors(typical field) corresponding to several major features of the field values shows a prominent long-term abnormal change around the source region before the M8.0 earthquake.The time weighting factor corresponding to everal regional characteristic values of energy field along the Longmenshan fault zone shows very obvious short-term anomaly.The authors believe that this method is worthy of further study for prediction of earthquake activity.
引文
[1]滕春凯,白武明,王新华.流变介质中亚临界扩展前地震孕育过程的能量积累[J].地球物理学报,1991,13(1):32-41.
[2]荆燕,李宏,熊玉珍,等.利用地震矩张量与GPS资料推算中国大陆现今地壳运动能量分布特征[J].高校地质学报,2009,15(1):108-114.
[3]秦嘉政,钱晓东,叶建庆,等.用峰值速度估算姚安地震序列的地震能量[J].地震学报,2002,24(1):98-102.
[4]陈培善,S J Duda.地震辐射能对环境应力场的依赖性[J].地震学报,1993,15(2):146-152.
[5]郑熙铭,肖家鑫,林家逖.地震前兆场的演化和能量非线性聚集的关系[J].中国地震,1998,14(1):74-80.
[6]杨明芝,赵卫明.宁夏及邻近地区地震活动能量场的统计分析[J].地震学报,2004,26(5):516-522.
[7]罗国富,杨明芝.云南地区地震活动能量场的时空分布特征[J].中国地震,2005,21(3):332-340.
[2]荆燕,李宏,熊玉珍,等.利用地震矩张量与GPS资料推算中国大陆现今地壳运动能量分布特征[J].高校地质学报,2009,15(1):108-114.
[3]秦嘉政,钱晓东,叶建庆,等.用峰值速度估算姚安地震序列的地震能量[J].地震学报,2002,24(1):98-102.
[4]陈培善,S J Duda.地震辐射能对环境应力场的依赖性[J].地震学报,1993,15(2):146-152.
[5]郑熙铭,肖家鑫,林家逖.地震前兆场的演化和能量非线性聚集的关系[J].中国地震,1998,14(1):74-80.
[6]杨明芝,赵卫明.宁夏及邻近地区地震活动能量场的统计分析[J].地震学报,2004,26(5):516-522.
[7]罗国富,杨明芝.云南地区地震活动能量场的时空分布特征[J].中国地震,2005,21(3):332-340.
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