滇西水汞观测的地震短临预报指标
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摘要
通过对滇西下关、弥渡、洱源江干、洱源滇２０＃、保山等水汞在１２次地震前异常特征分析的结果表明：汞异常形态清楚，异常变化率大，单项以多点突跳为主，整体以群体突跳为主；短临异常持续时间数十天，地震多数发生在首次异常后２３—１１１天的８８天之内；大震存在中短期异常和时空演变规律；对应地震范围受震中距和地震构造的双重制约，似乎与孕震能大小和传播途径有关；大体存在异常持续时间越长，异常数量越多，震级越大的关系；群体指标比单项指标预报效能强。作者最后对预报指标可能的物理机制进行了讨论。
The anomalous characteristics of mercury in groundwater in Xiaguan, Midu, Jianggan of Eryuan, Yunnan No20 of Eryuan and Baoshan, Western Yunnan before the 12 earthquakes are analysed in this paper and results are shown as follows: the mercury anomaly has clear form, large variation rate, dominant multiple point jump in single item and dominant colony jump as a whole; the short-impending anomaly continued for several ten days and most of the earthquakes occurred within 88 days from the 23rd day to the 111st day after the first anomaly; there were medium-short anomolies and time-space evolution regularity in large earthquakes; the ranges corresponding to the earthquakes were restricted by both epicentral distance and seismotectonics,which seems relative to the the size and propagation way of earthquake preparation energy; in general, the longer anomaly duration time was and the more anomaly amount was, the larger magnitude was and prediction effect of the indexes as a whole is better than as single item indexes. Lastly, possible physical mechanism of the prediction indexes is discussed by the authors.
The anomalous characteristics of mercury in groundwater in Xiaguan, Midu, Jianggan of Eryuan, Yunnan No20 of Eryuan and Baoshan, Western Yunnan before the 12 earthquakes are analysed in this paper and results are shown as follows: the mercury anomaly has clear form, large variation rate, dominant multiple point jump in single item and dominant colony jump as a whole; the short-impending anomaly continued for several ten days and most of the earthquakes occurred within 88 days from the 23rd day to the 111st day after the first anomaly; there were medium-short anomolies and time-space evolution regularity in large earthquakes; the ranges corresponding to the earthquakes were restricted by both epicentral distance and seismotectonics,which seems relative to the the size and propagation way of earthquake preparation energy; in general, the longer anomaly duration time was and the more anomaly amount was, the larger magnitude was and prediction effect of the indexes as a whole is better than as single item indexes. Lastly, possible physical mechanism of the prediction indexes is discussed by the authors.
引文
〔1〕李彤起等，滇西地震实验场水化学前兆灵敏组分及灵敏穴位的初步探讨，西北地震学报，Vol．12，No．2，1990。〔2〕国家地震局监测预报司，地震学分析预报方法程式指南，地震出版社，1990。〔3〕汪良谋，康滇活动构造带的形成力学机制及强震活动，中国活动断裂，地震出版社，1982。〔4〕O．Miti．YasuandM．Kiyoo，Freauancychardcteristiesofacousticemisioninrooksunderuniaxialcompressionanditsrelationtothefracturingprocessoffailure，J．GeophysRes，1982．87．〔5〕马胜利、马瑾等，典型构造变形物理时空演化的实验和理论研究，地震，增刊，1995
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